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To Believe Or Not To Believe? - Feb. 13, 2017 – Vol. 70, Issue 11 - Matt Larkin
A DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKE often precedes an unstoppable tsunami. In November, the Columbus Blue Jackets warned us of what they were about to do. They humiliated the Montreal Canadiens and goaltender Al Montoya with a 10-0 win Nov. 4, then dropped an eight-spot on the St. Louis Blues eight days later. Columbus beat the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning twice each, not to mention the New York Rangers.
And that was just November. ‘The Streak’ didn’t even start until the month’s final game, Nov. 29, 2016. The Blue Jackets wouldn’t lose again until Jan. 5, 2017. They won 16 straight, the second-longest streak in NHL history, falling one short of the 1992-93 Penguins’ mark. The Jackets’ run is far more impressive than the record setter, too. Columbus won 16 straight in the salary cap era. Parity has reached such a pinnacle that 29 of 30 NHL teams won at least 30 games last season. The Penguins of 24 years ago not only had Mario Lemieux in the midst of a Hart Trophy campaign but also shared a league with the pathetic San Jose Sharks and Ottawa Senators, who won a combined 21 of 168 games and were victims No. 7 and 11 during the streak.
The Blue Jackets were deservedly the talk of the hockey town as the new year arrived. Much of the chatter was positive. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky had shaken the injury bug and rediscovered the form that helped him win the 2012-13 Vezina Trophy. Sam Gagner filled the net after Columbus gave him what looked to be his last shot at remaining a bona fide NHLer. Little Cam Atkinson vaulted into the NHL’s top 10 scorers. Zach Werenski emerged as by far the best rookie defenseman in hockey (see pg. 38). Still, the Jackets didn’t solely inspire praise. They also invited plenty of skepticism. This team had missed the playoffs two straight seasons, after all, opening last year with eight consecutive defeats. It made very few significant roster changes year over year. It was thus not an automatic to label Columbus a legit 2017 Stanley Cup contender, even after 16 wins in a row.
So have the Jackets finally come into their own? Will they compete deep into June, or will a plucky low-seeded opponent expose them as frauds?
On the surface we can see some identifiers for the Blue Jackets’ roaring start, which put them first in the NHL at 28-7-4 through 39 games. Bobrovsky’s goaltending has been amazing. His 2.00 goals-against average and .932 save percentage were almost identical to his careerbest 2012-13 numbers. He also started a ridiculous 34 of 39 games through early January. Any team playing a goalie that hot that often will win a lot.
The Jackets had the NHL’s best power play at 26.7 percent. Their penalty kill wasn’t an embarrassment at 81.8 percent, ranking 16th. Some of their best first-half contributors were young players with ascending careers. Alexander Wennberg looks like a top-flight playmaker, and that’s consistent with the pedigree that made him a firstround draft pick and a mainstay near the top of THN’s Future Watch rankings. Werenski was a highly touted blueline prospect, the most coveted in the 2015 draft class after Noah Hanifin and Ivan Provorov. Werenski was a huge difference maker for the AHL’s Lake Erie Monsters in his pro debut last spring, helping them win the Calder Cup. His outstanding rookie season is a sight to behold given he’s still a teenager, but it’s hardly a surprise. Same goes for left winger Brandon Saad’s continuously improving offensive numbers and defenseman Seth Jones’ steady play since he returned from injury. These young players are all doing what they were supposed to do, which bodes well for sustained excellence.
From an anecdotal standpoint, coach John Tortorella is a positive for this team right now, too. In an interview with THN in December, Bobrovsky championed ‘Torts’ and said the team has become far closer to him. He’s a massive proponent of extreme fitness, and his hardworking group has bought in. Guys like Bobrovsky and resurgent defenseman Jack Johnson are among the bestconditioned athletes in the sport. They’re well suited to handle Tortorella’s demanding style. The Jackets have become a disciplined team under him, too. They averaged the eighth-fewest penalty minutes per game and committed the fourth-fewest turnovers in the league through 39 games.
Their list of victims checks out as well. They’re 2-0 against the Atlantic Division-leading Habs, outscoring them 12-1. They won their first meeting against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the defending Cup champs and consensus best team in hockey, 7-1. The Jackets have beaten the Chicago Blackhawks and taken two of three from the Washington Capitals. The Blue Jackets’ schedule has been anything but soft. They played 26 of their first 39 games, exactly two-thirds, against teams currently in playoff positions.
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But should we expect a regression? Well, of course. They won’t mount another 16-game winning streak. The better question is whether they’ll suffer an alarming step backward. The first place to look is the possession numbers. The Jackets’ advanced stats aren’t so poor that they match those of basement dweller teams, but they’re not elite. Per corsica.hockey, they rank 11th overall in 5-on-5 zone and venue adjusted Corsi percentage at 50.98 percent (12th in Corsi For per 60 and Corsi Against per 60). The good news is that profile still makes them a playoff team. Also, it reflects their difficult schedule. They played 15 of their first 39 games versus teams ranked in the top 10 of possession.
“Puck luck” is a concern going forward, though. Columbus’ team shooting percentage of 11.0 ranked second in the NHL behind the New York Rangers’ 11.7 percent. Columbus converted 8.9 percent of its shots last season, which is a relevant stat given how little the roster turned over. Each of the Jackets’ top seven goal scorers – Atkinson, Nick Foligno, Saad, Gagner, Scott Hartnell, Wennberg and Josh Anderson – was converting shots at well above his career average. Columbus as a team ranked third in the NHL in PDO, a stat that combines shooting percentage and save percentage for an approximation of “team luck.”
Bobrovsky, while an amazing success story, carries some red flags. Talent isn’t his problem – but he started 87 percent of his team’s games in the first half. The Blue Jackets would be wise to spell him more lest he sustain another groin injury, albeit his slimmed-down frame has kept him limber.
We see several legitimate indicators of success in Columbus and multiple stats foreshadowing a fall. What’s a proper expectation for this team going forward, then? Our resident analytics expert, Dom Luszczyszyn, sees a team performing over its head – but believes the Jackets are absolutely for real.
The most important point Luszczyszyn makes is that, while the Jackets’ shooting percentageappears unsustainable at first glance, it’s so high for a specific reason: the team does a great job generating scoring chances from high-danger eras, so quality trumps quantity. He’s a big fan of Columbus’ fourth line of Gagner and Hartnell between Lukas Sedlak because, unlike too many grinding fourth units, that trio can score and thus produce major mismatches when they’re on the ice against relatively soft competition. Luszczyszyn also points out Columbus’ possession numbers as a whole have improved notably since Jones rejoined the lineup. The Jackets rank top five in the league in expected goals, a stat that factors in not only how many unblocked shot attempts the team takes, but also the chance that each of those shots finds the back of the net. He still expects Columbus’ unbelievable shooting percentage and power play efficiency to regress – but not to the point of rendering the Jackets ineffective.
His custom-made predictive model, called GameScore, projects points by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times, factoring in each team’s strength (based on the team’s lineup and the past three seasons of data, weighting the current one the heaviest) and remaining strength of schedule. The model projects Columbus to finish 50- 22-10, good for 110 points and the NHL’s second-best record. That would mean a 22-15-6 mark over the rest of the season, which means a regression from a .769 points percentage to playing at a .581 mark over the final 43 games, which still indicates a playoff-caliber team.
An even more fascinating question: what will happen to the Blue Jackets beyond this season? They have some good young players to get excited about, and not just Wennberg, Jones and Werenski. Sonny Milano has electric hands and brings exciting boom/bust potential to the forward group, as does Oliver Bjorkstrand. Pierre-Luc Dubois, the 2016 draft’s third overall pick, has the upside to be a Vincent Lecavalier-type player. Don’t worry too much about his poor World Junior Championship performance. If even one or two of those players delivers on his potential, the Jackets’ scoring lines will get serious injections of top-end skill.
That’s the good news. The bad news: GM Jarmo Kekalainen has shockingly little space to maneuver under the salary cap. His roster projects to more than $67 million for just 16 contracts in 2017-18. That leaves less than $6 million to fill out his roster if the cap stays at $73 million – a scary thought when Wennberg needs a new deal as an RFA and Gagner will get a big bump as a UFA. Kekalainen has $10.6 million tied up in Hartnell and Brandon Dubinsky, each on the wrong side of 30, for two and four more seasons, respectively. Those contracts won’t be easy to move. Each also has no-movement clauses, meaning neither can be claimed by Las Vegas in the 2017 expansion draft. Not that they haven’t been useful – but someone will have to go if this team wants to retain its young core.
At least Blue Jackets fans can enjoy what should remain a fun ride right through to the playoffs. Next season and beyond will depend on how well Kekalainen wriggles his way out of a financial straitjacket.
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