The Columbus Blue Jackets and Toronto Maple Leafs pulled off a blockbuster trade yesterday. Although the rumors of a Kirill Marchenko trade have been around for months, this kind of came out of nowhere.
Let's break it down and give it a grade.
From a CBJ perspective: Don Waddell Grade: A-
- Columbus traded Kirill Marchenko, Elvis Merzlikins, and Miles Wood to Toronto for Matthew Knies, Emil Andrae, Steven Lorentz, and a conditional 2027 second-round pick. Columbus also retained 18% of Merzlikins’ salary.
Why I like it for Columbus
Matthew Knies is the centerpiece — and a legitimate one.
Knies is only 23, coming off a 23-goal, 66-point season, and is already signed for six years at a $7.75 million AAV. He's a big, physical winger who can play in a top-six role and gives Columbus a different type of offensive weapon.
The biggest factor is contract certainty. Marchenko was headed toward restricted free agency and did not intend to sign long-term in Columbus. Toronto subsequently gave him six years, $75 million ($12.5M AAV), beginning next season.
So Columbus effectively turned Marchenko + uncertainty into Knies + six years of contractual control.
That's significant.
The Merzlikins' part is important
Columbus also gets to move on from Merzlikins' contract, although the Jackets retain 18% of his salary.
And adding Miles Wood, who had already been placed on waivers, makes this partly a roster/cap-cleanup transaction for Columbus.
The secondary pieces
Emil Andrae is an interesting addition. He's 24 and gives Columbus another young defenseman who can move the puck. He had 13 points in 61 games for Philadelphia last season.
Steven Lorentz isn't a major part of the deal, but he's a useful NHL depth forward with Stanley Cup experience. He played for the Florida Panthers in 23-24.
And then there's the conditional 2027 second-round pick, which adds another asset to the package.
The biggest question: Knies vs. Marchenko
This is where Columbus takes a risk.
Marchenko is the more established goal scorer. He had 27 goals and 67 points in 76 games last season and has 102 goals in 292 career NHL games.
Knies hasn't demonstrated that same level of goal-scoring yet.
But Columbus wasn't trading Marchenko in a vacuum. They were trading a player who was, at best, leaving after the season and who ultimately received a massive $12.5 million AAV extension from Toronto.
That dramatically changes how I evaluate the return.
Bottom line
I wouldn't call this a win because Columbus got the better player. Marchenko is probably the most talented offensive player in the deal right now.
I'd call it a strong Columbus transaction because Waddell plucked a young, established NHL top-six forward with a long-term contract, a young defenseman, depth, and a pick rather than letting a disgruntled RFA situation dictate the return.
And there's an interesting wrinkle: Knies is now signed at $7.75M while Marchenko is getting $12.5M in Toronto, meaning Columbus gets Knies for $4.75M less per season for the same points production.
My final grade: A-.
If Knies becomes a consistent 25–30-goal, 60-point player alongside Adam Fantilli, this could eventually look very good for Columbus.
A Fantilli/Knies combo could be fun to watch for years.
