The Numbers Don't Lie: Ranking The Columbus Blue Jackets Defensemen 1-7

With training camp almost here, it's time to start looking at who the CBJ will put on the ice in 26-27. 

The defense is pretty much set, which is what we'll look at today. Zach Werenski, Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov, Denton Mateychuk, Dante Fabbro, Erik Gudbranson, and Jake Christiansen will most likely start the season as your top 7.

But how do they rank, and how will they be paired? Let's take a look at the numbers. 

We dug into the 2025-26 5-on-5 numbers rather than simply ranking them by points. I’m weighting xGF%, CF%, relative impact, actual goal results, workload, special teams, and offensive production. I’d put less weight on raw +/- because it can be heavily team- and goalie-dependent.

One caveat: WAR/GAR isn't published consistently across all seven players in the same accessible dataset, so I don't want to manufacture a WAR ranking. Where WAR/GAR isn't available, I'm using the underlying possession and expected-goals metrics that feed those types of evaluations.

For reference, we used sites such as Hockey-Reference, PuckPedia, and NHL.com to compile the numbers needed for this exercise. The number scale you'll see is my own ranking based on the metrics above. 

The analytics actually reinforce what the eye test says.

54% CF, 55% xGF, +5.9 relative xGF, 55.1 GF% while playing 21:15 per night at 5-on-5 is outstanding. Then add 81 points in 75 games and 26:37 overall TOI.

These are elite two-way stats.

His possession numbers are especially impressive considering the enormous minutes and responsibility. Hockey-Reference has him at a 53.5% overall CF%, and he finished with 81 points.

His NHL EDGE profile was ridiculous: elite percentiles for speed, skating distance, and shot generation.

Verdict: No debate. He's No. 1 by a mile.

This is where the analytics really change the ranking.

Severson's 54% CF, 57% xGF, +7.0 relative xGF, 55.3 GF%, 32 points, and +18 are excellent.

In fact, his +7.0 relative xGF is better than Werenski's +5.9.

That's why I'm comfortable putting him ahead of Provorov.

Earlier in the season, Natural Stat Trick had Columbus at 52.4% expected-goal share with Severson on the ice, and his overall season finished even stronger.

Verdict: The analytics suggest Severson was considerably better in 2025-26 than his reputation might indicate. One could argue that when he went down with his shoulder injury, the team started to fail badly. 

Here's the guy who could eventually top this ranking. 

Mateychuk posted a 51% CF,  53% xGF, +1.5 relative xGF, and a 54.2 GF% while scoring 31 points in 75 games.

His 5-on-5 GF% and xGF% were both above 50%, and he played more than 16½ minutes per night at 5-on-5.

That's very encouraging for a 21-year-old defenseman who's still finding his way. 

His numbers improved dramatically from his rookie season. His CF% went from 45.6% to 49.1%, while his relative CF went from -4.0 to -1.1.

Verdict: Not quite established as a top-pair guy yet, but his ceiling is the moon.

This is where the analytics make me slightly less bullish than normal evaluations. 

Provorov had a 50% CF, 52% xGF, +0.1 relative xGF, and a 53.7 GF%.

Those are good numbers—but they're not spectacular for a player making $8.5 million per year.

The positives are tremendous workload and reliability: 

He was unquestionably useful, and is considered an ironman, as he's NEVER missed a game as a Columbus Blue Jacket.

But when you're comparing him to Severson, the underlying numbers give Severson a fairly clear advantage.

Verdict: Very good defenseman. Analytics don't quite support calling him Columbus' No. 2.

This is probably the biggest analytics surprise.

Christiansen had a 50% CF, 49% xGF, and a -3.0 relative xGF. Those aren't terrible.

His 50% CF% and +1.0 relative CF% actually make him look respectable as a sheltered third-pair defenseman.

The problem is the goal results: 34.8 GF%. That's awful.

But there's an important factor: he played only 9:50 per game at 5-on-5. That's a dramatically different role from Werenski, Provorov, or Severson.

So I wouldn't say that Christiansen is better than Fabbro simply because their possession numbers are close.

Verdict: Better underlying possession numbers than his reputation suggests, but his actual results weren't good enough to rank him higher. Christiansen was once regarded as a player who was NHL-ready and could contribute in any way. The Cleveland Monsters' all-time leading points producer among defensemen is going into the final year of his contract and will be a UFA. We may have seen the last of Christiansen after this season. 

This is the guy who falls the most when I look at the numbers.

Fabbro's 47% CF, 49% xGF, -4.9 relative xGF, and 39.0 GF% are pretty ugly, and that's especially noteworthy because the previous season was substantially better:

2024-25: 51% CF, 54% xGF, +8.6 relative xGF, 55.7 GF%.

2025-26: 47% CF, 49% xGF, -4.9 relative xGF, 39.0 GF%.

That's a significant regression.

He also dropped from 18:49 of 5-on-5 ice time per game to 14:45.

Verdict: The contract and reputation say top-four. The 2025-26 analytics say bottom-four/third-pair play. This will need to be a bounce-back year for Fabbro. 

This one isn't close.

41%, CF 39% xGF, -18.7 relative xGF. 

That -18.7 relative xGF is by far the worst number among Columbus' seven defensemen.

He did have a 50% GF%, but that was almost entirely divorced from his underlying play—the expected-goals numbers were dramatically worse.

The positive is his penalty-killing role: 2:43 PK time per game.

But at 5-on-5, the numbers are very concerning.

Verdict: Useful physical/PK specialist, but analytically the weakest defenseman. He signed a one-year deal to come back to Columbus, but this could be it for Gudbranson after this season. 

Severson was Columbus' second-best defenseman in 2025-26 by the underlying numbers, and Mateychuk's analytics are more encouraging than his raw statistics might suggest.

Meanwhile, Fabbro is the biggest red flag. His 2024-25 numbers were legitimately good, then his 2025-26 numbers cratered. That's something that the CBJ should watch very closely going into 2026-27.

The other thing I'd emphasize is that you can't simply use these numbers to say Christiansen is better than Fabbro. Role, competition, zone starts, teammates and deployment matter enormously.

If I were building Columbus' blue line strictly around 2025-26 performance + analytics, I'd want:

Werenski — Severson

Mateychuk — Provorov

Fabbro — Christiansen

with Gudbranson as the seventh.

That's actually a pretty damn good top four—and it's why I think Columbus' defense is better than some of the traditional criticism suggests.

How do you think we did with our defensive rankings? Would you change anything?

Let us know in the comments below. 

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