It's all the rage amongst Columbus Blue Jackets fans to argue against pulling their goalie late in the game in an attempt to score. Some say it's pointless. Some say it Evason does it too early. Some say he does it too late. Is there a right answer? Yes there is.
The bottom line is that pulling the goalie HAS TO HAPPEN at some point when you're losing. If you want a "chance" to tie the game or give your team a "chance" to pull closer if down by multiple goals, it has to happen.
So, let's talk about it.
First, let's look at where the CBJ rank in terms of goals given up after pulling their goalie.
The Blue Jackets have given up 10 Empty Net Goals, which ties them with the Carolina Hurricanes and Anaheim Ducks for 4th most in the league. The Predators have given up 12, the Sabres 13, and then the Panthers, Canucks, and Rangers all have 14, which is the most in the league.
Columbus has pulled their goalie a total of 18 times this season, which is tied for the 4th most. Of those times pulling their goalie, they've only scored 2 times, which is tied with 6 other teams for the third fewest. The teams tied with them, or below them for fewest goals scored while having the extra attacker are the Jets, Mammoth, Blackhawks, Sabres, Flames, Red Wings, Bruins, Oilers, Capitals, Leafs, Lightning, and Blues.
As you can see from the list above, it's a mixed bag in terms of the teams that just can't seem to score with the extra attacker. Some teams are atop the standings, some are at the bottom, some have great power plays, some have bad power plays. There seems to be no rhyme or reason. Is it the system maybe?
Why do they pull their goalie?
It's quite simple - You pull the goalie when down a goal, or multiple goals late in the game, to try to gain an advantage with an extra attacker.
When should teams pull their goalie?
There are several answers to this question, and it's determined by how many goals a team is trailing by. In today's NHL, just about everything is driven by analytics, including pulling goalies late in games.
Studies have shown that teams that pull their goalies earlier than expected have a greater chance of scoring the tying goal.
- If down by 1 goal - the best pull time is between 2:30 and 3:30 left in the game, with some data models even arguing that a team should pull the goalie with 5-6 minutes left.
- If down by 2 goals - 5–7 minutes left is the ideal time.
- If down by 3 goals - analytics say to pull the goalie as early as 10 minutes left in the game. You have to be able to score in order to come back, so pulling the goalie early is ideal. The Capitals were down to Columbus by 3 goals late in a game a few years ago and pulled their goalie with 8 minutes to go. They scored and made it interesting, but they wouldn't have made it interesting had they not pulled the goalie the first time, so early in the third period.
The stats above all depend on the strength of the opponent and where the zone start is.
So, why does pulling the goal work?
There are several reasons as to why, including being able to retrieve more pucks due to having an extra attacker, should be able to put more pressure on the defense, which should be able to generate more quality scoring chances.
A lot of fans complain that by pulling the goalie, you're doing nothing but giving the other team a chance to score. Well, you're right, but if you want to tie the game and extend it, you really have no choice. You're either going to lose by one goal, or two, and that makes not a bit of difference. The bottom line is you have to score, and whether you lose by one or two goals, it's still a loss on your record, so you might as well go for it. Pulling your goalie significantly increases your chance of scoring, so it's worth it to give up an empty netter if you have the advantage of having the extra attacker.
NHL data over the years has shown that pulling a goalie increases a team's chance of tying the game.
- 15–20% of all 6-on-5 situations result in a goal.
- When a team pulls their goalie with 3-5 minutes left, the odds that the team that pulled their goalie will score, increases more significantly.
- Coaches are actually waiting too long to pull their goalies and are not paying attention to the analytics. Between 1:15 and 1:45 is the normal time most coaches are pulling their goaltender, when they should be doing it much sooner.
Coaches and fans can't be afraid to the pull their goalie, at any time in the third period while trailing. If you feel like you have momentum, and are starting in your offensive zone, why not pull him and go for it? As I stated above, a loss by one goal or a loss by two is still a loss.
Blue Jacket fans voice their frustration with the coaches nearly every single time they pull their goalie and get scored on. Most of them say Evason's pulling the goalie too early. Some of them argue that they shouldn't pull the goalie at all, which is the wrong opinion - respectfully.
Historically it feels like the CBJ never score with the extra attacker and always get scored on. Last season (24-25), Columbus allowed the 5th fewest empty net goals, while scoring the 2nd fewest goals with the extra attacker. Again, this year they've allowed 10 and scored just twice.
They must keep pulling the goalie, despite what people think.
Up Next: Columbus travels to Vegas to take on the Golden Knights on Thursday.
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