As the Stanley Cup Playoffs first round begins, let's take a look at the breakdown of the Western Conference playoff matchup between Dallas and Vegas.
As the Stanley Cup Playoffs first round begins, let's take a look at the breakdown of the Western Conference playoff matchup between Dallas and Vegas.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are here and the Dallas Stars face the reigning Stanley Cup Champions, the Vegas Golden Knights.
Last season, the Golden Knights knocked the Stars out of the playoffs in the Western Conference Final, so this series already has an added layer of intrigue for both teams. While Vegas moved on, the Stars last six playoff games against the Knights are still fresh in their heads.
The Stars finished the season with 113 points, the second highest in franchise history, and only behind the 1999 Stanley Cup winning team that had 114 points. They won their first Western Conference title since the 2015-16 season. Usually, winning the conference means a matchup against the weakest playoff team in the conference, but outside of the standings on paper, this series is anything but easy.
Any hopes of the reigning champions being taken out by another team was foiled when Vegas lost 4-1 to Anaheim on the final day of the regular season, and the Los Angeles Kings had a comeback win against the Chicago Blackhawks just after to edge Vegas out for third in the Pacific Division.
The Stars were swept by the Golden Knights in their regular season series this season, meaning they have not defeated Vegas since Game 5 in May of last season during their series in the Conference Final. The three regular season games were played early in the year, with two of them decided in overtime. However, the Vegas team the Stars saw in the first half of the season is not the same team they will see in the playoffs.
It is hard to gauge just what Vegas will look like as a team in Game 1, as the Golden Knights were plagued with injuries all year and never really got going as a fully healthy squad. In the days leading up to the start of the playoffs, it was announced by Vegas General Manager Kelly McCrimmon that Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo, and William Carrier were cleared to practice, and Anthony Mantha returned to practice Sunday after a stint on the injury report.
The Golden Knights are not shy about using the NHL's own loophole to their benefit. Once captain Mark Stone was injured with a lacerated spleen in February, Vegas placed him on the long-term injured reserve, and with the extra cap space, were able to bring in Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl at the trade deadline. This is the third season in a row that Stone was placed on LTIR in advance of the deadline, freeing up cap space for Vegas to be as aggressive as possible in adding pieces to their team for a playoff run.
When asked about who would or wouldn't be in the lineup against the Stars, head coach Pete DeBoer laughed while stating that one can assume that everyone will be in the lineup for Game 1.
The series between the Stars and the Golden Knights is arguably the toughest matchup in the playoffs. Both teams are tough - each has a strong offensive game, shut down defense and strong goaltending. Breaking down the teams on paper will give a better idea on what to expect out of the series.
Dallas finished the season scoring 298 goals, good for third in the league, only behind the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs. Vegas scored 266 goals, which was 13th in the league. Unlike the goals for, the goals against is much closer for Dallas and Vegas. Dallas allowed 234 goals, 10th in the league, whereas Vegas allowed 241, which was just behind the Stars at 11th in the league. Since March 1st, the Stars have really turned it on, averaging 3.70 goals a game (fourth in the league) while only allowing 2.30 goals a game (second in the league).
Two areas where the Stars struggle with comparatively are puck-handling and physicality. The Stars finished the season 668 giveaways, which was 15th in the league, while Vegas was much more sound with the puck. They only had 565 giveaways, which was fifth in the league. This is something the Stars will have to clean up during the series, making sure not to give the Golden Knights extra potential chances, because Vegas will not be returning the favor.
Additionally, the Stars physical game does not match up well against Vegas. During the regular season, the Golden Knights threw 2,019 hits and blocked 1,506 shots. The Stars, however, only threw 1,458 hits and blocked 1,225 shots. The Stars addition of defenseman Chris Tanev was for exactly those two reasons, as blocking shots is the strongest pillar of his game. Jani Hakanpaa is a key part of the Stars physical game, but it is unclear whether he will make an appearance in Game 1, or even at all in the first round.
Offense:
On the surface, the Stars appear to be the stronger team offensively. The Stars have eight 20 goal scorers compared to Vegas' four. While the Golden Knights have only five 50 point scorers, the Stars have nine. The Stars depth is something that made them extremely successful this season and what seemingly separates them from other teams, and based on the stats mentioned previously, it would seem to be the case in this matchup. However, Vegas quietly has the same amount of 40 point scorers as the Stars with ten. Even though the higher point and goal totals seem to favor Dallas, the Golden Knights still have a fairly even spread of point totals on their team. Whichever team can suffocate the other's depth scoring will most likely have the advantage in the series.
Comparatively, here are the lines and what the scoring looks like for potential lines for Game 1:
Dallas:
Robertson (29g-51a-80p)-Hintz (30g-35a-65p)-Pavelski (27g-40a-67p)
Marchment (22g-31a-53p)-Duchene (25g-40a-65p)-Seguin (25g-27a-52p)
Benn (21g-39a-60p)-Johnston (32g-33a-65p)-Stankoven (6g-8a-14p)
Steel (9g-15a-24p)-Faksa (7g-12a-19p)-Dadonov (12g-11a-23p)
Vegas:
Barbashev (19g-26a-45p)-Eichel (31g-37a-68p)-Marchessault (42g-27a-69p)
Stephenson (16g-35a-51p)-Hertl (17g-21a-38p)-Stone (16g-37a-53p)
Howden (8g-11a-19p)-Karlsson (30g-30a-60p)-Mantha (23g-21a-44p)
Carrier (6g-2a-8p)-Roy (13g-28a-41p)-Kolesar (8g-10a-18p)
Per moneypuck.com, the league average for scoring chances for (for the entire regular season) is 1,788. The Golden Knights graded out just under the league average with 1,787 and the Stars were at 1,977. The Vegas defense is known to sit back a little more, giving the other team space to get shots off, which is something the Stars want to take advantage of. Also according to moneypuck.com, the league average for high-danger changes for (for the entire regular season) is 627. The Stars are just above league average at 633 but the Golden Knights recorded 648.
When it comes to the man-advantage, the Stars finished the regular season sixth in the league at a 24.2% success rate, whereas Vegas finished 20th in the league at 20.2%. Although, with the addition of a healthy group of forwards, it is feasible to say that the power play could suddenly look more dangerous. Hertl has six power-play goals since returning to the lineup and the Golden Knights have been 7/15 since adding him to their first power-play unit.
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Defense:
Both the Stars and Golden Knights acquired the two biggest names on the market at the trade deadline, and they happened to not only come from the same team, but were also paired together for quite some time. Dallas made a trade for Tanev, a right-handed defenseman who plays a shutdown defensive role and filled a major gap the Stars were lacking. Vegas acquired Noah Hanifin, who is more of an offensive, puck-moving defenseman that has helped them with their transition game and is another quarterback for their power-play. Here is what the pairings look like going into Game 1:
Dallas:
Harley (15g-32a-47p)-Heiskanen (9g-45a-54p)
Lindell (5g-21a-26p)-Tanev (2g-17a-19p)
Suter (2g-15a-17p)-Lundkvist (2g-17a-19p)
Vegas:
Hanifin (13g-34a-47p)-Pietrangelo (4g-29a-33p)
McNabb (4g-22a-26p)-Theodore (5g-37a-42p)
Hague (2g-10a-12p)-Whitecloud (2g-12a-14p)
Both teams have a solid core of four defensemen that provide both offense and quality defense, although the Stars grade out higher when it comes to the defense itself. According to moneypuck.com, the league average for scoring chances against (for the entire regular season) is 1,788. The Stars finished the season quite a bit under that number with 1,647, whereas the Golden Knights were significantly above it at 1,847. Additionally, moneypuck.com states the league average for high-danger chances against is 627. The Stars finished the season with an impressive 540 against, while Vegas allowed 627.
The penalty kill is another area where the Stars had the edge over the Golden Knights. The Stars finished the regular season with a penalty kill of 82.0%, which was eighth in the league. Vegas ended the season with a penalty kill percentage of 79.3%, which was 16th in the league.
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Goaltending:
The goaltending storylines for both teams have taken a very different turn as the regular season wound to an end. After having an uncharacteristically poor season, Jake Oettinger has found his groove in the final stretch leading up to the postseason. Oettinger is 10-1-0 in his 11 starts and since February 1st, he is 19-5-2. During that time, he put up a .911% save percentage and his goals against average was 2.39.
Meanwhile, Vegas has had the opposite fortune. Adin Hill, who had a save percentage of .932% last post-season and led the league in save percentage and GAA at the All-Star Break, is 5-10 since Feb. 12 with an .875% save percentage and 3.72 GAA. Hill missed significant time in the middle of the season, and Logan Thompson had to take over as the every game starter.
All signs pointed to Hill getting the nod in the playoffs, but another absence down the final stretch only gave him one game (the 4-1 loss to Anaheim) to rediscover his groove. Since Feb. 12, Thompson is 9-4-1 with a save percentage of .914% and a goals against average of 2.55, so the decision on who starts for Vegas is a bit muddled. Here are the season numbers for both teams.
Dallas:
Oettinger: 35-14-4, .905%, 2.72 GAA
Wedgewood: 16-7-5, .899%, 2.85 GAA
Vegas:
Thompson: 25-14-5, .908%, 2.70 GAA
Hill: 19-12-2, .909%, 2.71 GAA
All in all, on paper the Stars seem to have the advantage over the Golden Knights, but the game is not played on paper. Vegas has gotten a fully healthy lineup ready to go for the first time since the beginning of the season, and Dallas also has the full compliment of forwards ready to roll for the postseason. The Stars were swept by Vegas during the regular season, and are fresh off that six game Western Conference Finals series loss. Ironically, Dallas swept the Golden Knights in the regular season series last year, so it could be set up for Dallas to have the postseason edge this year.
No matter who wins, fans should buckle up, because this series will be a stressful but fun series. Prepare for a "war," as DeBoer said in the days leading up to the highly anticipated start.
Game 1 is at 8:30 p.m. CDT at the American Airlines Center, and can be seen locally in Dallas on Bally Sports Southwest, and nationally on ESPN.
Make sure you bookmark THN's Dallas Stars site for the latest news, exclusive interviews, breakdowns, and so much more.
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