Jake Oettinger's Hot Start, Underlying Numbers Present Potential Vezina Case

After six seasons in which Dallas Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger has established himself as one of the league's most elite netminders, this may finally be the year he puts together a Vezina Trophy-winning season.

His best campaign to date came in 2022-23, when the Minnesota native posted a 37-11-11 record, a 2.37 goals-against average and a .919 save percentage over 62 starts. It still wasn't enough to beat out Linus Ullmark, who put up one of the best goalie stat lines in recent memory for a Boston Bruins team that broke the NHL's single-season wins record, including a 40-win season by their goaltender.

Despite his efforts, the historic season pushed Oettinger to fifth place in the voting that year. Now the 27-year-old has a chance to make up for it and is off to a scorching start, and his 2-2-1 record understates how well he has played.

Through five starts, Oettinger has a 1.20 goals-against average and a .944 save percentage, with two shutouts. If he can keep up that pace, he will be in line for the best season of his career, and his underlying numbers suggest it could happen.

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Oettinger has saved 6.6 goals above expected, trailing only two goaltenders tied for first at 6.9 in Minnesota's Jesper Wallstedt and, once again standing in Oettinger's way, Ullmark, now with the Ottawa Senators. He also ranks third in the league in save percentage on unblocked shots at .977 on the season.

His timing is ideal for a crucial year in Dallas as franchise legends Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are eyeing what could be one last run at a Stanley Cup, and with Oettinger playing this well, the Stars have a better chance than many expected.

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