New estimate of Jason Robertson's next contract from NHL insider sparks concern on being able to retain the 26-year-old star forward.
The Dallas Stars remain among the Stanley Cup contenders in the NHL, but as they look ahead to next season, a significant challenge is emerging surrounding pending restricted free agent Jason Robertson.
Dallas would like to keep the former 2017 second round pick, who has developed into a star at the NHL level and is on pace for just short of a career year heading into the off-season. However, Robertson’s contract situation has sparked widespread speculation around the league.
Several teams are believed to be monitoring the situation closely, particularly after reports surfaced earlier in the summer suggesting the Stars briefly explored the possibility of moving the 26-year-old.
Those discussions were largely driven by salary cap concerns. The Stars are approaching a point where it will be increasingly difficult to offer a contract that reflects Robertson’s value while remaining cap compliant.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman addressed the situation on his 32 Thoughts podcast Monday, offering insight into what Robertson’s next contract could look like. Friedman suggested the deal may be comparable to Mikko Rantanen’s eight-year, $96 million contract. He added that it "at least would be in the same vicinity, give or take," which would put Robertson’s cap hit around $12 million per season.
As of now, Dallas has $2.49 million in cap space. On the surface, the jump from Robertson’s current $7.75 million cap hit would require clearing roughly $4.25 million, a figure that could appear manageable.
However, that calculation does not account for defenseman Thomas Harley’s looming raise. Harley’s cap hit is set to increase from $4 million this season to $10.587 million annually over the next four years, further tightening the Stars’ financial picture.
The Stars must also consider forward Mavrik Bourque, another pending restricted free agent. Bourque has established himself as a reliable middle-six forward and could be in line for a long-term deal worth between $2 and $4 million per season, a significant jump from his current $950,000 cap hit.
Complicating matters further, Dallas has limited flexibility to shed salary. Several core players hold no move clauses, including Mikko Rantanen, Tyler Seguin, Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene and Miro Heiskanen, while Esa Lindell carries a no trade clause. Those restrictions make it difficult for the Stars to create meaningful cap space without impacting their roster depth.
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As a result, rival teams are preparing for the possibility that Dallas may have no choice but to explore a trade involving Robertson. According to The Athletic’s Josh Yohe, the Pittsburgh Penguins are among the teams monitoring the situation closely.
Yohe reported Tuesday that Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas would likely make an offer if Robertson becomes available, adding he would "be shocked if Dubas didn’t engage in trade discussions if Dallas decides there’s no way it can bring him back."
While the Stars’ cap situation presents clear obstacles, there is still time before decisions must be finalized in July. Dallas is expected to remain active ahead of the trade deadline, and any cap-clearing moves could play a role in determining whether the organization can retain Robertson long term.
For now, the focus remains on how general manager Jim Nill navigates the coming months, with potential trades likely to shape the future of one of the franchise’s most important players.
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