Alex DeBrincat, the Detroit Red Wings shiny new toy, was rated as 3rd most likely to cause buyer's remorse and 3rd most likely to benefit from a change of scenery. Which outcome seems looks more probably heading into the new season?

Before he takes the ice for the first time as a Red Wing, Alex DeBrincat joins his teammates in Detroit's Team Delvecchio training group for a pre-practice video session in the vestibule of Traverse City's Centre Ice Arena.

Seated in the front row of benches, his hands folded into his lap, DeBrincat looks every bit the eager pupil keen to make a strong first impression on his first day at a new school.

Amongst the Red Wing fans who have descended on Centre Ice Arena for training camp, it appears DeBrincat has little work to do to forge a good impression.  Before he takes a shift in his new number 93 sweater, it is he they most want to see.

The promise of DeBrincat's goalscoring allures them. The Pistons hat—a marker of his Farmington Hills roots—he wore to his introductory press conference endears him to Detroit fans. The possibility that he might just be the piece to uplift the Red Wings back to the postseason delights them.

However, the most popular man at Red Wings camp divided opinion in The Hockey News' pre-season prediction poll.  In a survey of 34 THN writers from around the league, DeBrincat was rated as both the third most likely player to induce buyer's remorse from his new team AND the third most likely player to benefit from a change of scenery.

At first glimpse, this discrepancy appears contradictory, but after a disappointing 2022-23 season in Ottawa, you can see the case for either position.

In DeBrincat's favor, there is proof of concept that the winger can be a volume goalscorer.  Twice in his five seasons in Chicago, he eclipsed 40 goals.  In '20-21, he posted 32 goals in just 52 games (a 50 goal pace over a full 82 game season).

Beyond his scoring history, Red Wing fans can take an optimistic tack when it comes to fit and comfort.  DeBrincat never gelled in Ottawa, playing under the shadow of his pending restricted free agency in a city that chose him via trade, rather than the other way around.  

Now with his hometown Red Wings, the 25-year-old has the added security of a newly signed four-year, $31.5 million extension.  Detroit was always rumored to be his preferred destination, and it was the one DeBrincat got on July 9th, when the trade and extension became official.

On the other hand, DeBrincat's detractors can point to last year's disappointment with the Senators (27 goals, 66 points in 82 games) as well as less-than-stellar underlying numbers.  While his finishing touch is close to undeniable, DeBrincat has never been a play-driver at the NHL and has developed a reputation as a defensive liability.  You can also quibble with his consistency, given the variance between his top seasons (41 goals and 78 points in '21-22) and his least productive ones (18 goals and 45 points in 70 games in '19-20).

If there is some level of validity to both cases, the early returns from training camp lean much more toward the former category.

When asked what DeBrincat can bring to the Wings, head coach Derek Lalonde was to the point: "Goals...we need goals...we played a lot of really quality team games, and we just couldn't find that goal."  DeBrincat promises to provide that vital scoring boost.  Lalonde then added that the winger is "a lot better transporter of the puck, especially on entries than people probably give him credit for."

Captain Dylan Larkin skated on a line with DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond on the first day of camp and painted a similar picture, saying "He just scores" and adding that he believes DeBrincat's hockey sense is underrated.  Defenseman Moritz Seider took just one practice to reach the same conclusion: "His shot is unbelievable, and he will definitely help this team score more goals."

Of course, it should come as no surprise that the Red Wings sound excited about their new sniper on his first day.  Imagine if a team made a franchise-altering decision over the summer and then had to publicly backtrack on it before even playing a game.

Still, at the end of the day, I'm much more inclined to side with "benefits from a change of scenery" than "induces buyer's remorse," if only based on the matter of cost.

The Red Wings traded for DeBrincat without making parting with any of its premium futures.  Instead, Detroit parted only with a roster player (on whom DeBrincat constitutes a direct upgrade), another team's first that it had previously acquired via trade (this aspect of the deal is conditional), a solid but unspectacular prospect, and a fourth round pick.  

DeBrincat's ensuing extension (four seasons at a $7.875 million AAV) looks modest as well.  If DeBrincat repeats last season's disappointing production in Ottawa (27 goals and 39 assists for 66 points), $7.875 million against the cap would still look like a decent value.

So, no Alex DeBrincat won't be able to vault the Red Wings back into the playoffs single handedly, but he can and should score goals in buckets, and that's something Detroit desperately needs.

Throw in whatever advantages come from the comforts of home and the security of a long-term deal with a franchise that clearly values his services, and Alex DeBrincat looks a lot more likely to benefit from a change in scenery than he does to push the Red Wings toward buyer's remorse.