Detroit Carries Play, DeBrincat and Compher Star, Husso Struggles: Red Wings-Canadiens Statistical Review
Diving into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 5-4 OT win over Montreal on Saturday
On Saturday night in Montreal, the Detroit Red Wings beat the Canadiens 5-4 in overtime. After racing out to a 3-0 lead and entering the third period up 4-2, Montreal mounted a late comeback to force the extra session, only for Jake Walman to win the day. For a better sense of how the game shook out, let's take a look at the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-The final score on Saturday night was closer than the expected goal battle, with Detroit claiming a 4.02-2.39 edge in xG according to MoneyPuck.
The Red Wings dominated the first period, earning a 1.512-0.791 edge by xG and a 3-1 lead after Montreal salvaged a goal with just seven seconds left. In the second, Detroit was clearly the better team once again, posting a similar xG advantage of 1.537-0.631. This time around, however, the goals were an even 1-1 for the frame. Detroit was much less prolific offensively in the third (putting up just 0.521 xG for), and it suffered as a result, giving up a pair of goals to their hosts on 0.966 xG.
Fortunately for Red Wings fans, Jake Walman wasted little time finding the OT winner in the extra session.
-The below scoring chance map shows that Detroit created plenty of offense around the net, an excellent formula for finding success. Montreal did enjoy a solid volume of offense itself, but the Canadiens couldn't find a way to get quite as many of those chances from the slot.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, at five-on-five, the Red Wings earned a 41.67% CorsiFor, a 56.41% share of scoring chances, a 50% share of high-danger chances, and a 52.93% share of xG. Those numbers reinforce the idea that, by pure volume, Detroit wasn't exactly dominant, but the Red Wings controlled play nonetheless by earning higher quality chances than the Habs could muster.
Individual Impacts
-Three Red Wings had more individual xG than any Canadien Saturday night. Two of them were quite predictable and the third a dark horse candidate: Alex DeBrincat (0.71), Dylan Larkin (0.62), and Christian Fischer (0.52). In addition to leading the individual xG charge, DeBrincat scored a goal and gave an assist in 16:45.
-As the forwards go, J.T. Compher's line was excellent for Detroit, but the other three trios struggled. Michael Rasmussen, Compher, and DeBrincat played 9:19 together, putting up 0.472 xG for compared to 0.316 xG against for a 59.9% share of on-ice xG. The next best Red Wing line by xG share was Joe Veleno, Larkin, and Lucas Raymond, who earned a 43.0% share of on-ice xG in 10:27.
Compher has been excellent for some time for Detroit—at least since before the team traveled to Sweden. It's perhaps noteworthy that he's found success with DeBrincat as the Red Wings prepare to integrate Patrick Kane into the lineup.
It's no secret that Kane and DeBrinct had excellent chemistry together in the past, so perhaps what we should soon expect is a DeBrincat-Compher-Kane line when the 35-year-old is ready for game action.
-On the back end, the Ben Chiarot-Jeff Petry and Jake Walman-Moritz Seider pairings were excellent, while Shayne Gostisbehere and Justin Holl struggled together.
Chiarot and Petry earned an outstanding 66.7% share of on-ice xG in 16:41 together. Walman and Seider weren't quite that sharp, but they earned a strong 53.3% share of on-ice xG. Meanwhile, Gostisbehere and Holl played 11:30 at five-on-five to just a 12.3% share of on-ice xG.
-Finally, in net, Ville Husso had his most difficult night in net since returning from paternity leave. Husso faced 2.388 xG and conceded four goals against for a -1.61 Goals Saved Above Expected. It would be too harsh to say that Husso was the reason Detroit allowed this game to get to overtime, but, by the numbers, he was the weak link in an otherwise reasonably strong performance.
Still, Husso has been excellent in recent starts against Boston and New York, so I don't this has to be the cause of any sort of larger panic about the state of the Red Wings goaltending room, but it's worth noting that as Alex Lyon and Husso continue to compete for more minutes in the Detroit net that Husso did take something of a step backwards against Montreal.
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