Rangers Own Five-on-Five, Compher Line Thrives, Husso Holds His Own Amidst High-Event Struggles: Red Wings-Rangers Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 3-2 loss to the Rangers on Wednesday night
On Wednesday night, the Detroit Red Wings dropped a 3-2 decision to the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden in a game that wasn't as close as the final score suggests. For a clearer sense of how the contest unfolded, let's take a look at the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-By all situations xG, this game finished at a dead heat: 4.7-4.7 (per MoneyPuck). Detroit played a poor first period, which ended with the Rangers leading 2.131-0.62 by xG. However, thanks to the work of Ville Husso in net, neither team scored in the first.
New York got on the scoreboard early in the second via Artemi Panarin, but Moritz Seider and Robby Fabbri provided quick answers. The Red Wings' best hockey of the night came in the moments between Fabbri's goal (which came with 10:54 to play in the second) through the end of the second period. Over the course of the second, Detroit owned a 3.247-1.041 edge in xG.
The third period was relatively even, but New York put two goals past Husso to reclaim the lead, and the Red Wings couldn't muster anything of consequence with Husso pulled for the extra attacker.
-The below scoring chance map shows that there was plenty of offense in both directions, but the Rangers' abundance of premium chances from directly in front of Husso's net is an obvious red flag. It's simply too many A+ chances to concede and still have a reasonable expectation of coming away with a victory, especially on the road.
-Natural Stat Trick's five-on-five numbers reveal the extent of New York's control of the run of play. Detroit earned just a 40.2% CorsiFor, a 44.44% share of scoring chances, a 42.31% share of high-danger chances, and a 41.18% share of xG.
The Red Wings needed their power play (which struck once) to keep pace in this game, while the Rangers were head and shoulders above their guests at five-on-five, even as the all situations xG
-If there's a more macro takeaway from this performance, it's as a foil to last Wednesday's shutout win over the New Jersey Devils. After that game, I wrote about the way the contest showed the way low-event hockey (i.e. games with relatively few chances in both directions) tends to favor Detroit when the Red Wings look to take down high-octane attacking teams in the East.
Last night's loss to the Rangers shows the opposite side of that coin. This was a game with plenty of chances, and in the end, the team with the extra firepower flourished, and Detroit struggled.
Individual Impacts
-Alex DeBrincat led the way for the Red Wings in terms of individual xG contributions, delivering an impressive performance in Dylan Larkin's absence. DeBrincat didn't find the scoresheet, but his 1.2 individual xG was a game-high, and he earned a 74.39% share of on-ice xG at five-on-five.
-DeBrincat's line with Lucas Raymond and J.T. Compher was Detroit's best by a good distance. In 10:51 together at five-on-five, that trio posted 0.488 xG for and allowed just 0.119 xG against for an 80.4% share of on-ice xG. Those numbers get even more impressive when you consider that their primary competition last night was New York's top pair of Ryan Lindgren and Adam Fox.
Larkin's absence re-conditioned the Red Wings' line-up, which led to this line taking shape, and Patrick Kane's eventual introduction and Larkin's return will shake things up again. Still, DeBrincat, Compher, and Raymond clearly found something together, and they may be worth keeping together as Detroit moves forward.
Beyond that top trio, no other Red Wing line managed to come out above water at five-on-five. The fourth line of Klim Kostin, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong came the closest at a 48.5% share of on-ice xG. Robby Fabbri, Andrew Copp, and Jonatan Berggren finished at 44.2%, and David Perron, Joe Veleno, and Michael Rasmussen were down at 19.8%.
-On defense, the Seider-Jake Walman and Olli Maatta-Justin Holl pairings struggled, while Ben Chiarot and Shayne Gostisbehere were dominant in 7:47 together at five-on-five at a 98.2% share of on-ice xG.
-For the Rangers, the line of Alexis Lafreniere, Vincent Trocheck, and Artemi Panarin. Working mostly against Walman and Seider, that trio played 13:43 at five-on-five. In that time, they put up 0.967 xG for compared to 0.454 xG against (a 68.0% on-ice xG share). Panarin scored an even-strength goal, and the line wasn't on the ice for a goal against.
-By far the brightest part of this performance for Detroit was Husso in goal. The Fin faced 4.703 xG and gave up just three goals for 1.7 Goals Saved Above Expected. Husso didn't always look comfortable last night, but he faced a heavy workload and performed admirably.
Having now started twice since becoming a father, Husso has delivered two of his best performances of the season. With Alex Lyon also coming on strong, it's encouraging to see Husso holding serve and continuing to earn more starts, even as Lyon has also been excellent in the last two weeks.
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