A dive into the underlying numbers from the Detroit Red Wings' 4-3 home loss to the Anaheim Ducks Monday evening
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Detroit Red Wings' 4-3 home loss to the Anaheim Ducks Monday evening
On Monday night at Little Caesars Arena, the Detroit Red Wings fell 4-3 to the visiting Anaheim Ducks. Detroit fell behind 4-0 by the early stages of the second and, despite a valiant late rally, couldn't find the goals to overcome that deficit. For a clearer sense of how the game unfolded, let's take a look at the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals, Anaheim edged out the Red Wings 3.86-3.02 per MoneyPuck.com. By the end of the first period, the Ducks led 3-0 on the scoreboard, but their advantage by xG was just 1.167-0.678, which is to say Detroit didn't play well by any stretch, but it was undone more by goaltending than by its control of play.
After the first, the run of play was roughly balanced, even with a surplus of special teams, but that wasn't enough to bring the Red Wings back into the game.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, the Red Wings didn't play poorly at five-on-five by any means. Detroit earned a 55.13% CorsiFor, a 58.82% share of scoring chances, a 53.85% share of high-danger chances, and a 47.2% share of expected goals at five-a-side.
To some extent, that is probably a reflection of score effects; in other words, because the Red Wings fell into a big early whole, they were bound to generate a significant share of offense throughout the latter stages of the game.
Meanwhile, Detroit's edge in five-on-five high-danger chances was 7-6, but only one of those seven came in the third period.
-The above heat map from Natural Stat Trick (depicting five-on-five unblocked shots) shows that the Red Wings created some offense around the net and in the slot, but they weren't able to do so consistently, instead settling for a lot of low-danger perimeter chances.
Individual Impacts
-Alex DeBrincat was the most dangerous Red Wing last night.
In 19:42, he scored twice on four shots, 11 shot attempts, and 0.63 xG. Though he hasn't had much finishing luck in recent weeks (just one goal in December prior to last night), DeBrincat has routinely been one of Detroit's leaders in individual xG, which is to say he's consistently found chances for himself.
As DeBrincat told The Hockey News last week, "once you stop getting chances is when you need to worry," and a breakthrough of some kind was inevitable. For the Red Wings' sake, hopefully last night's finishing luck continues for the sniper.
-In his return from a four-game absence, Dylan Larkin didn't ease back into things. Instead, he played 21:13 in all situations, picking up an assist, and three shots on seven attempts. Larkin was 12 of 19 from the face-off dot.
Not even half of his minutes came at five-on-five (just 9:02), but he did earn a 53.6% share of on-ice xG in that time. He played 6:53 at five-on-four, 1:14 at four-on-five, and 4:04 in all other situations (specifically, a combination of four-on-four, six-on-four, and six-on-five).
-Because of all the special teams last night (specifically the Red Wings' seven power play opportunities), Andrew Copp wound up with his lowest ice time total of the season at just 13:17. In his 11:04 at five-on-five, however, Copp was excellent, earning a 72.3% share of on-ice xG.
-For the forward group as a whole, there was very little continuity, with only one line spending more than five minutes together at five-on-five.
That line was Klim Kostin, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong, who played 5:07 together, racking up an 0.124-0 edge in on-ice xG. However, after Kostin was knocked out of the game in the second period, not even that line could remain together for the duration of the night.
Detroit's lone five-on-five goal came courtesy of the Robby Fabbri, Copp, Patrick Kane trio, who played 2:37 together to the tune of a 0.178-0.093 edge in xG and a 1-0 advantage on the scoreboard.
-On the back end, Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot were the Red Wings' best pair by xG share, but they were outscored 2-0 (Petry's goal in the second period came on a shift with Justin Holl). In exactly 13 minutes together at five-on-five, the pair earned a commendable 56.7% share of on-ice xG but couldn't leverage that into any offensive conversion.
Meanwhile, Moritz Seider and Jake Walman struggled in 10:40 together at five-a-side, earning just a 33.6% xG share and being outscored 0-1. Shayne Gostisbehere and Olli Maatta played 11:23 at five-on-five, earning a 42.0% share of on-ice xG with neither side scoring in their minutes.
-In goal, this was another difficult night for Ville Husso. He played 17:23 before he was forced to exit by a lower body injury. In that time, Husso allowed two goals on just 0.639 xG for a -1.36 Goals Saved Above Expected. The biggest difference (by the numbers) in this game was goaltending, and Husso's early struggles put Detroit into a position from which it wouldn't recover.
In relief, James Reimer fared well by the numbers, giving up two goals on 2.298 xG for a 0.3 GSAE. However, by the eye test, he looked far from comfortable—often seeming to struggle with puck tracking and losing his net. Reimer has never been a conventional goaltender—always showing a tendency toward the acrobatic and chaotic—so perhaps it is worth focusing on the numbers rather than the visual that produced them.
However, even with his strong numbers, I didn't find this to be an encouraging start for Reimer, and if both Alex Lyon and Ville Husso end up missing extended time, Detroit could be in serious trouble.
Also from THN Detroit
Red Wings 3, Ducks 4: Poor Start Dooms Detroit in Third Straight Defeat
Injury Update: Larkin Progressing, Kostin Back, Compher Likely, Fischer Takes a Maintenance Day
Carolina Dominates as Husso Helps Detroit Hang Around: Red Wings-Hurricanes Statistical Review
Red Wings 1, Hurricanes 2: Carolina Smothers Larkin-less Red Wings
Could the Red Wings' Approach to NHL Roster Construction Hinder Their Prospects' Progress?