Kane, Larkin, Seider Power Red Wings Through Chaos and Dubious Goaltending: Red Wings-Flyers Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 7-6 shootout win over the Flyers
Last night's 7-6 Red Wings shootout win over the Philadelphia Flyers in Detroit was so chaotic that it feels a bit silly to attempt to understand through statistics, but let's give it a shot anyway.
The Big Picture
By all situations expected goals (per MoneyPuck), the Red Wings earned a 4.68-4.02 advantage.
Detroit led 5-1 after the first period with a 2.687-0.89 edge in xG, and despite giving up a pair of early goals in the second, the Red Wings were still comfortably the better team, leading 3.974-2.04 by xG after 40 minutes. However, the Flyers dominated the third, earning an 1.934-0.302 as they completed their comeback then took a momentary lead. Detroit had slightly better of the chances in overtime, but there were opportunities for either team to win the game. Instead, the game went to the shootout, where the Red Wings prevailed at last thanks to Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond.
-Over the course of 60 minutes, this was a balanced game at five-on-five with the Flyers taking a slight advantage in the run of play. Per Natural Stat Trick, Detroit earned a 45.92% CorsiFor, a 45.65% share of scoring chances, a 33.33% share of high-danger chances, and a 46.43% share of xG. Other than the high-danger chances (which are more than a bit concerning in a game where the Red Wings clearly struggled defensively), there wasn't a huge difference between the two teams at five-on-five.
However, if you divide things up by period, you see that after the first 20 minutes of hockey, Detroit suffered, particularly in the third. The Red Wings' first period share of five-on-five xG was 67.21%, the second 48.98%, the third just 14.9%. That last figure is a disaster in late-game management.
-The above five-on-five unblocked shot heat map is a testament to the importance of getting bodies to the net. All of Philadelphia's goals were score from the inner slot (for which both Detroit's defending and James Reimer's goalkeeping deserve condemnation).
Meanwhile, Detroit scored two from barely beyond the crease, a third from between the hash marks, and one more (Gostisbehere's rebound goal at the end of the first) from about 12 feet out off a rebound.
For both sides, this was a game where tips and rebounds were the preferred means of offense.
Individual Impacts
-This was a game in which the Red Wings' stars carried the day. The below individual xG contribution chart shows that Detroit was heavily reliant on a few major contributors to rack up its chances, while the Flyers had a lot of different players chip in a bit.
-The three best players for Detroit were Kane, Dylan Larkin, and Moritz Seider. Kane played 20:19, scored twice, provided an assist, and earned a 63.5% share of on-ice xG at five-on-five. Larkin played 21:38, scoring the third-period equalizer, giving an assist, winning 13 of 22 face-offs, and putting up a 61.6% share of on-ice xG. Finally, Seider played 26:28 (a far cry from the 17:27 he saw against the Ducks on Monday), gave two assists, and earned a 61.0% share of on-ice xG.
Throughout the Red Wings' losing skid, all three were struggling. Derek Lalonde noted that last night was the first time Larkin looked himself after returning from his injury. Kane had to wear a 1-7 record as a Red Wing going into last night. Seider had been struggling to stay above water at five-on-five.
That all three were excellent proved essential to Detroit's victory.
-The line of Kane, Larkin, and Alex DeBrincat was the Red Wings' most productive, but it also gave back a good deal of offense in return. In 13:02 together at five-on-five, that trio registered a 1.062-0.571 (65.0% share) of on-ice xG, while scoring four times and suffering three goals against. They created a lot of offense off the rush, but they also gave Philadelphia similar looks in return. That dynamic was best encapsulated by the 44 second spell in the first in which Kane scored to make it 2-0, and the line promptly allowed Bobby Brink to slip behind everybody and halve that margin.
J.T. Compher, Joe Veleno, and Lucas Raymond were also excellent by xG but mixed by actual goals. In 12:43 together at five-on-five, they earned a 1.318-0.943 edge in expected goals but scored once and gave up one.
-The Red Wings' bottom six struggled a good deal by xG.
David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Michael Rasmussen put up just a 1.5% share of on-ice xG in 11:20 in which they struggled to generate any offense at all. Meanwhile, Robby Fabbri, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong weren't much better in 6:20, putting up a 15.5% on-ice xG share. The third line gave up a goal without scoring, while the fourth played its 6:20 to a scoreless draw.
-On the back end, Olli Maatta's injury in the first period meant the Red Wings had to mix and match for most of the game with only five available bodies.
Within that context, it's notable that Seider and Shayne Gostisbehere were excellent together, putting up a 73.0% share of on-ice xG and 2-0 edge on the scoreboard in 11:31. Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot also played a strong game, earning a 63.8% on-ice xG share in 13:32 and a 1-0 edge on the scoreboard for their troubles.
-Finally, this was a night to forget for James Reimer. He gave up six goals on 4.019 xG for a -1.98 Goals Saved Above Expected, but it is the eye test that was more damning for Reimer. On the Flyers' fifth and sixth goals, Reimer thought he'd secured a puck that was in fact free, leaving Philadelphia with lay-up finishes from within the crease.
Reimer is not wholly to blame for Detroit giving up seven goals; the defensive zone coverage is absolutely a factor. However, it's hard to see how the Red Wings can have any confidence at all in Reimer after his third period last night.
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