Lyon, Fabbri Carry Detroit to Victory in Middling Five-on-Five Performance: Red Wings-Kings Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from last night's 4-3 Red Wings' victory over the Los Angeles Kings
Last night at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, the Detroit Red Wings grabbed a 4-3 shootout victory over the Kings, sealing consecutive wins for the first time since early December. For a better sense of how the game was won, let's take a dive into the numbers that defined the contest.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals (per MoneyPuck), the Red Wings finished the night at a slight deficit to their hosts, 3.67-3.97. Last night's was a reasonably balanced game that skewed from start to finish slightly toward Los Angeles. After 20 minutes, the Kings led 2.138-1.594 by xG. After 40, it was 2.995-2.464. After regulation, 3.001-3.653. And finally after overtime, it was 3.973-3.671.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, at five-on-five, the Red Wings earned a 37.61% CorsiFor, a 46.15% share of scoring chances, a 41.67% share of high-danger chances, and a 53.71% share of expected goals.
That first figure is informed in part by the fact that the Red Wings blocked 22 shots, compared to just 11 for the Kings. (Corsi, unlike Fenwick, accounts for all shot attempts, rather than just unblocked ones.)
Meanwhile, it's a bit curious that Detroit came out on top by xG at five-on-five, despite taking it on the chin in scoring chances AND high-danger chances. However, as the above heat map helps show, the Red Wings did have a higher concentration of interior chances than did the Kings, even if LA had an overall advantage in high-danger chance creation.
Individual Impacts
-Despite playing just 11:43, Robby Fabbri was the best and most impactful Red Wing skater on the night. He scored twice on three shots, while earning a 70.15% share of on-ice xG at five-on-five and a team high 1.17 individual xG.
-Only five Red Wings finished the night better than 50% by on-ice xG share, but all five were significantly over that threshold: Alex DeBrincat (66.07%), Christian Fischer (67.52%), Fabbri (70.15%), Daniel Sprong (74.47%), and Shayne Gostisbehere (90.9%!!!).
-A game after they dominated against the San Jose Sharks, Detroit's top line of Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin, and David Perron struggled against the Kings. The trio played 12:21 together at five-on-five (over five minutes more than the next closer line, with the Red Wings again using 11 forwards and seven D), but they were out-chance 0.309-0.939 by xG and outscored 1-0.
Patrick Kane, J.T. Compher, and Alex DeBrincat (who spent 7:11 together at five-on-five) were the only other Detroit line to play more than three minutes together, and they too were out-chanced (0.131-0.458 by xG) and outscored (also 1-0).
The Red Wings' two five-on-five goals came from unlikely sources. Fabbri, Fischer, and Sprong pitched in one goal in just 1:22 together, while Perron, Larkin, and Joe Veleno found the other despite playing just 12 seconds as a unit.
-On the back end, Detroit's two regular D pairs struggled. Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry played 13:27 together at five-a-side and were out-chanced 0.338-0.923 but did outscore their opposition 1-0. Meanwhile, Moritz Seider and Jake Walman played 12:26 together, getting out-chanced 0.349-0.962 and outscored 1-0.
Though they only played 5:31 as a pairing, Olli Maatta and Justin Holl struggled, conceding the other two LA goals and getting outchanced 0.011-0.736 by xG.
-In net, Alex Lyon was excellent. He made a season-high 40 saves on 43 shots, and his three goals against on 3.973 xG was good for an 0.97 Goals Saved Above Expected. At this point, there can be little denying that whenever Ville Husso does return from injury, Lyon will still deserve the lion's share of starts in net.
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