A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 5-3 win in San Jose
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 5-3 win in San Jose
Last night at the SAP Center in San Jose, the Detroit Red Wings overturned a 3-2 third-period deficit to earn a 5-3 win over the Sharks. Here's a look at the underlying numbers that defined Detroit's victory.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals, the Red Wings beat San Jose 3.45-1.93, earning a 63.8% from MoneyPuck.com's Deserve to Win O'Meter.
However, those figures are slightly deceptive, because, in fact at five-on-five, this was far from a dominant Detroit performance. Nearly a full goal of that 3.45 total came at five-on-four (0.96), and Michael Rasmussen's empty-net goal accounted for another 0.93. Per MoneyPuck, the five-on-five xG margin was just 1.51-1.49 for the Red Wings.
-Natural Stat Trick's five-on-five numbers show the extent to which the Sharks controlled this game. At five-a-side, the Red Wings earned just a 43.88% CorsiFor, a 26.67% share of scoring chances, a 38.46% share of high-danger chances, and a 44.9% share of expected goals. San Jose outscored the visitors 3-1 at five-on-five as well.
However, Detroit dominated the special teams battle—going 2/4 on the power play while holding the Sharks' PP scoreless in two chances—and that proved enough to take the game.
-The above heat map of five-on-five unblocked shots shows the nature of San Jose's game control. Detroit didn't generate a huge volume of offense at five-on-five, and a decent chunk of the chances it did create came from the perimeter. Meanwhile, the Sharks drove a huge percentage of their offense to the slot, where they scored all three of their goals.
Individual Impact
-Daniel Sprong was probably the Red Wings' best skater last night. He played just 11:59 but made the most of those minutes. Sprong scored, gave an assist, blocked a shot, and hit the net with all six of his shot attempts. He also finished second in the game with 0.84 individual xG and would've been first without Rasmussen's ENG.
-Derek Lalonde noted last night that David Perron's line "pushed" and "drove" Detroit to success on a night when the Red Wings clearly didn't have their best game. That line—with Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin—played 9:44 at five-on-five, earning a 0.214-0.112 edge by xG (a 65.7% share) and out-scoring their opponents 1-0 along the way.
On the opposite end of that spectrum, the ostensible third line (which actually played the most of Detroit's forward lines at five-on-five at 10:15) of Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Joe Veleno struggled mightily. That trio earned just a 34.5% share of on-ice xG and was outscored 3-0.
Meanwhile, the second line of Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher, and Patrick Kane didn't exactly thrive either. You can see the vision of pairing DeBrincat and Kane with Compher: the former two can embrace their offensive dynamism, with Compher providing defensive coverage and forward thrust.
However, at least on Tuesday night, that formula didn't work. In 7:44 at five-on-five, the line didn't create much offense (just 0.144 xG) but also gave up more than it created (0.341 xG against). There were no goals in either direction, but a 29.7% share of on-ice xG isn't a very persuasive effort.
-It was also a difficult night for Shayne Gostisbehere and Ben Chiarot. That pair played 11:36 and suffered a good deal. They were on the ice for just 0.047 xG for compared to 0.633 xG against (just a 6.9% share), and they were outscored 0-2.
Jake Walman and Moritz Seider were busier and, while still underwater, considerably better. In 15:02, they earned a 44.7% share of on-ice xG, outscoring San Jose 1-0 in those minutes. Meanwhile, in a more limited role, Olli Maatta and Justin Holl were excellent. They didn't score or conceded but enjoyed a 79.2% share of on-ice xG in 8:53.
-Finally, it wasn't a banner night for Alex Lyon in net. He made 24 saves on 27 shots, conceding three goals on 1.929 xG for a -1.07 Goals Saved Above Expected. That's obviously not a brilliant performance, but as Lyon put it himself after the game, it "wasn't perfect tonight by any means, but never gonna apologize for a win."