Toronto exorcised its first-round demons, then promptly lost in the second. Where will the Maple Leafs go from here, and how does it affect the Red Wings?
In 2023, the Toronto Maple Leafs exorcised their first-round playoff demons by beating the Tampa Bay Lightning in six games; it was the organization's first playoff series win since 2004. They proceeded to burn up whatever goodwill they accrued for doing so in exactly three games, ultimately falling to the Florida Panthers in five after trailing 3-0 in the series.
With this latest effort, Toronto left no doubt that is the Leafs who have inherited the mantle of "NHL team for whom the regular season matters least" from the Washington Capitals, who defeated their postseason boogeymen and won the Cup in one fell swoop back in 2018.
Heading into the off-season, it's been anything but quiet in Toronto (though to be fair, this is an evergreen statement). There was palace intrigue as team president Brendan Shanahan rebuffed a power play from then-GM Kyle Dubas, a saga that concluded with Shanahan replacing Dubas with Brad Treliving.
Though that fire has been put out, there are still major questions facing the Leafs. Can Toronto keep the "Core Four" of John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews and still put together quality enough depth to compete for a championship? Is Sheldon Keefe the coach who can take this group on a deeper playoff run? Will Shanahan and Treliving extend Nylander and Matthews on July 1st (both of their deals run through the season after next)?
Suffice it to say we are in for another dramatic summer in Leaf-land.
Trending Up or Down?
It's hard to put too fine a point on Toronto's direction of travel. With 111 points, Toronto finished fourth in the league in the regular season. That's an impressive mark (in a vacuum), but it's not an outlandish one to match in 2023-24.
The bigger reason for uncertainty around the Leafs is their bevy of free agents. Toronto has seven UFAs up front (most notably Alex Kerfoot, Michael Bunting, and Ryan O'Reilly, none of whom are expected back) and three on the blue line (Erik Gustafsson, Justin Holl, and Luke Schenn).
The stars are signed, but Treliving and Shanahan might elect to move on from one or more this summer. In the immediate aftermath of the season, it appeared inevitable that the Leafs would trade one of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, or Tavares (with Marner and Nylander the most likely out the door), but now that fervor seems to have cooled.
All things considered, the Leafs have a lot of work to do this summer, but, if they do stick with the "Core Four" model, I suspect their floor will be high enough not to have to worry about missing the playoffs in 2024. Still, there are a lot of hypotheticals there.
Toronto needs to avoid making a rash trade for the benefit of its fanbase's emotional needs. They need to re-sign or replace a significant subset of its skater group, and there isn't exactly a nailed-on number one starter in net. The situation is probably fine, but if you're so inclined, you don't have to stretch too far to argue that all is not well just beneath the surface.
Off-Season Needs
The Leafs running out of goalscoring at the worst imaginable time has become an annual playoff tradition. In the Greater Toronto Area, the conventional wisdom has been to attribute those untimely dry spells to a lack of clutchness from the Core Four (with Matthews and Marner bearing the heaviest brunt of the vitriol in this regard), but I think it's fair to raise bigger questions about the Leafs' composition.
Throughout the Dubas-Keefe era, Toronto has played possession-heavy hockey that privileged skill over size and, by the end, speed. The Leafs were effective at controlling games, but they never became especially decisive in converting game control to victories come the postseason.
Especially against the Panthers, Toronto's lack of team speed was on full display. The Leafs could control the puck for long stretches and generate the better of the chances, but Florida's forecheck and neutral zone proved just disruptive enough to feed a fast and direct transition game. The Leafs might get four decent looks in a row, but then the Panthers would pounce on one excellent chance. To remedy that problem, Toronto will need to target speed and secondary scoring this off-season.
Toronto also could benefit from a bit more clarity in net. Last summer, the Leafs brought in Matt Murray from Ottawa and Ilya Samsonov from Washington. The former struggled with injury and appears destined for LTIR or a buyout. The latter was quite effective, posting a .919 SV% and 2.33 GAA across 42 games, but Samsonov is an RFA who will need a new deal this summer.
By Game 5 of the Florida series, rookie Joseph Woll was manning the crease (thanks to injuries to Samsonov and Murray) and effective if unspectacular. A tandem of Woll and Samsonov would seem reasonable entering the 2023-24 season, but it also wouldn't come as a big surprise if the Leafs targeted a veteran netminder to compete for starts as well.
How Does this Affect the Wings?
There are so many variables for Toronto that it's hard to describe them as a true lock for the playoffs, but it would be a major surprise if they aren't back in the post-season in 2024. As such, it's unlikely (though not impossible) Detroit can sneak past the Leafs in the standings next season, barring a truly catastrophic off-season in Toronto.
Nonetheless, it's fair to wonder about just how much longer this Leafs team will be among the best in the conference. The star players (with the exception of Tavares) are still in the heart of their primes, but their longevity in Toronto is up in the air.
Furthermore, there are a number of Leafs who might make sense in Detroit should they leave Toronto this summer. I've already written about the possibility of a Marner or Nylander trade and pursuing Bunting in free agency.
Another option to consider might be Ryan O'Reilly. At thirty-two years old, O'Reilly wouldn't make sense on a long-term deal (anything more than two or, at the very most, 3 seasons), but he could make some sense as stopgap while the Wings matriculate some of their young talent into the NHL lineup. Such a move would feel roughly in line with Steve Yzerman's maneuvering last summer in free agency.
O'Reilly has never been a strong skater, but his defensive solidity and playmaking could help the Red Wings. It's possible O'Reilly covets only a return to St. Louis (where he won the 2019 Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe, and Selke Trophy), but if he's open to other options, Detroit might be one that makes sense for both parties.