For half the year, the Panthers were in disarray. For the second half, they were dominant and won the East in overwhelming fashion. What's next?
Somewhere around the midpoint of the season, the Florida Panthers appeared on the verge of catastrophe.
It wasn't just that the team had cratered after major off-season surgery but also that it didn't have its first-round pick. There was a real risk of giving away the right to draft Connor Bedard for a few months of Ben Chiarot the previous spring. The most beloved player in franchise history was off in Calgary, and even he was struggling.
As you surely know by now, instead of succumbing to impending disaster though, the Panthers rallied, edged into the last spot in the playoffs, then steamrolled the Eastern Conference for a spot in the Stanley Cup Final.
In the first round, Florida came back from 3-1 down to beat the record-setting Boston Bruins in a Game 7 in Boston. In the second, the Panthers bulldozed the Toronto Maple Leafs, turning Leaf fans' fantasies at finally escaping the first round into nightmares in a matter of days. In the conference finals, Florida swept the Carolina Hurricanes; each game was close, but the aggregate outcome was anything but.
Despite running out of gas in the Cup Final and falling to Vegas in 5, the Panthers made a major post-season statement. They punished all of their Eastern foes on the forecheck and made good on first-year coach Paul Maurice's promise to bring playoff-style hockey to South Florida.
Though the Cats scraped into the playoffs, they were a much better team by xG share at 5-on-5 than they were by standings points. Florida's 53.64% figure (per MoneyPuck.com) placed them 7th in the NHL over the course of the regular season, suggesting that this was a more serious outfit than their place in the standings did.
One summer after a groundbreaking trade to acquire Matthew Tkachuk, it's near impossible to take issue with the Panthers' team-building approach. Tkachuk put himself in legitimate consideration of being the NHL's most influential 5-on-5 player with his post-season performance. He can contribute to his team's success in more different ways as any player in the league, and Florida is now built in his image. His 24 playoff points would've eclipsed the all-time Panther record at the time the season began.
With all that said, there are some fairly significant questions to be asked concerning the Panthers' longevity as Cup contenders. Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour, and Gustav Forsling (all exemplary in the post-season) are each down to just one year remaining on their contracts.
Meanwhile, Florida's goaltending situation is unusual. In the summer of 2019, Sergei Bobrovsky signed a seven-year, $70 million deal. That contract was an unmitigated disaster until about April, when Bobrovsky re-discovered his game and re-claimed the Panther crease. He would finish the playoffs with a .915 SV%.
Journeyman Alex Lyon, who helped save the season and claw the Cats across the playoff threshold with a .912 in 15 crucial appearances down the stretch, is a UFA. Spencer Knight, who is theoretically the goaltender of the future, entered the NHLPA's Player Assistance Program in February. The good news is that, per GM Bill Zito, Knight is expected to be back in action this fall.
Trending Up or Down?
The Florida Panthers are, undeniably, an Eastern power on the rise. No, they might not win the East again next year, but that doesn't change the fact that the Panthers are building something.
Trading Jonathan Huberdeau (and MacKenzie Weegar) for Matthew Tkachuk was, at least in part, to prolong their championship window. Huberdeau is five years older than Tkachuk. Now, Zito has Barkov and Tkachuk's services secured through 2029-30.
Yes, Zito has some work to do to in the off-season as far as signing some extensions to important pieces, but there is no reason to doubt that the Panthers are anything other than an Atlantic power on the ascent.
Off-Season Needs
Zito's first off-season priority has to be those extensions for Montour, Forsling, and Reinhart. The former two are certainly due for raises, and Reinhart probably is as well. Montour will make $3.5 million against the cap in the final year of his deal, Forsling $2.67 million, and Reinhart $6.5 million.
Montour and Forsling's versatility and dynamism from the back end were essential to Florida's run to the Cup Final. However, Bill Zito will also want to add depth to his D corps this summer. Beyond Montour, Forsling, and Aaron Ekblad, Josh Mahura (whom the Panthers picked off waivers in February) is the only defenseman under contract for 2023-24. When they ran into the Vegas buzzsaw, it became clear that a lack of defensive depth was a serious shortcoming for the Cats, and it's one Zito will want to address sooner rather than later.
Zito will also want to solidify Florida's goaltending situation entering the new season. Was Lyon's cameo success enough to earn him a contract elsewhere? Will the Panthers try to bring him back as a high-end third option? Is it possible that the Panthers will try to sell high on Bobrovsky after his exemplary post-season? Doing so would require Bobrovsky's assent, since he has a full no-move clause until next summer when it will become a 16-team no-trade list. If I had to guess, the most likely scenario is that Bobrovsky and Knight are back as Florida's goaltending battery come October.
How Does This Affect the Wings?
The simple fact is that Florida's rise only makes the road back to the playoffs more difficult for Detroit. For several years now, Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay have been the class of the Atlantic Division, worthy of being penciled into the playoffs before the puck drops on the regular season. All three of those powers are, to varying degrees, somewhere between upheaval and decline. Nonetheless, it's hard to imagine any of them missing the playoffs in 2024. Now, Florida appears to have played its way into that mix, and life in Hockeytown is that much trickier for it.