Ottawa produced its best point total since 2016-17, but there's work to be done to make it all the way back to the playoffs. What's next, and how does it affect the Wings?
The big summer news for the Ottawa Senators came away from the ice. On June 13th, Michael Andlauer—once a minority owner of the Montreal Canadiens—agreed to buy the Senators for a total reported to be around $950 million dollars.The sale's formal announcement marked the end of a prolonged, drama-riddled, celebrity-dotted saga that never seemed smooth, but, much to the relief of Sens fans, is now complete.
Senators fans will also be optimistic that Andlauer can finally bring an end to the team's Kanata era—playing well outside downtown Ottawa and away from the heart of the fan base from 1996 to the present—and solidify plans for a new building.
On the ice, there's good and bad to be gleaned from the 2022-23 season.
On the plus side, 86 standings points was the team's best mark since 2016-17 (when the Sens last qualified for the post-season). Per MoneyPuck.com, Ottawa was 16th in the league by 5-on-5 xG share with a 51.22% figure. There's also tons of exciting young talent up front, beginning with captain Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Josh Norris.
Stutzle in particular projects as a talismanic figure for the Sens. When he was drafted third overall in 2020, Stutzle was intriguing but something of a gamble. Would his game translate to North American ice? Was he a true center at the NHL level?
Three years into his NHL career, Stutzle has answered all those questions and established himself as a blossoming star. The eight-year, $66.8 million contract he signed last September has the potential to become one of the most team friendly deals in the league before it expires.
Still, Ottawa is not without questions to answer or problems to solve. GM Pierre Dorion's draft night trade for Alex DeBrincat last June has been a failed experiment. The Michigan-born sniper never quite fit in with the Senators and managed just 27 goals (down from 41 in his last year in Chicago); now an RFA, he and agent Jeff Jackson are exploring options for another trade to arrive at a long-term home.
The Senators also lack a convincing long-term solution in net. Cam Talbot delivered an uninspiring .898 SV% in 36 appearances and now is a UFA. Anton Forsberg, who ended the season on LTIR, is signed through 2025 at a manageable $2.75 million cap hit, but his .902 in 28 2022-23 appearances wasn't much better.
Trending Up or Down?
The Senators are clearly trending upward, but the key question is just how much farther their upward trajectory might extend. The jump into legitimate Cup contention from the fringes of the playoff race is a major hurdle, and it's fair to wonder just how equipped the Sens are for doing so (especially along the blue line).
A major variable for Ottawa will be whether new ownership increases investment in the Senators' roster. Under late owner Eugene Melnyk, the Senators operated under a rigid internal cap, and reaching the salary cap's floor was a more pressing consideration than staying beneath its ceiling. For years under Melnyk, Ottawa drafted and developed well, only for players like Erik Karlsson or Mark Stone to need to seek new homes to secure the long-term contracts they had earned on the ice.
If you're a Sens fan, you have to hope Andlauer will bring an end to that tradition.
Off-Season Needs
In the short term, Ottawa needs to resolve the DeBrincat saga. When the Senators brought in DeBrincat from Chicago, they gave up a 2022 first rounder (the seventh pick), a 2022 second rounder (the 39th pick), and a 2024 third rounder. Given DeBrincat's public desire to move on and pricey qualifying offer, it's unlikely they can recoup that haul when they deal him in the coming days.
23-year-old defenseman Erik Brannstrom presents an interesting RFA dilemma. He arrived in Ottawa to much fanfare as the centerpiece of the return in the trade that sent Stone to Vegas. However, despite flashes of promise, Brannstrom has struggled to win over head coach D.J. Smith and played just 16:07 a night over 74 games in 2022-23.
Beyond Brannstrom, Ottawa needs to upgrade its defense corps to push closer to Cup contention. Bringing in Jakob Chychrun at the deadline last season was a nice acquisition, but they will need more help to keep climbing the standings.
How Does this Affect the Wings?
Finishing six points ahead, Ottawa was the closest team to Detroit in the Atlantic Division standings. As such, the Sens are an obvious bench mark for the Red Wings going into 2023-24.
It should be reasonable for the Red Wings to clamber past Ottawa, but, regardless of next season's standings, the Senators project as a team Detroit will have to deal with throughout its forthcoming window of contention.
Once again, though, the major variable when it comes to the Sens' future is Andlauer's willingness to spend. If he follows Melnyk's penny-pinching ways, Ottawa might not ascend to Atlantic-contending status. If Andlauer ditches that script and begins spending to the cap, it will make the Senators an even more threatening presence in the division for years to come.
In the short term, Detroit has been rumored as a potential destination for DeBrincat. If that move does come to fruition, it would certainly add some intrigue to the relationship between the two team's long-term fortunes following extended rebuilds.