Could Michael Bunting Replace Tyler Bertuzzi in Detroit?

The simple fact is that Michael Bunting isn't as good of a hockey player as Tyler Bertuzzi.  

However, for the Red Wings, Bunting's affordability and availability might make him a reasonable (if incomplete) replacement for the Guelph-born winger, whom Steve Yzerman dealt for a 2024 first rounder and 2025 fourth rounder at last season's trade deadline.

By traditional stats, Bunting boasts comparable numbers to Bertuzzi, but the underlying numbers suggest that the latter is a (much) more complete player.

Last season, Bunting scored 23 goals and gave 26 assists, while playing in all 82 regular season games for the Toronto Maple Leafs.  In his career, Bunting has played 187 games (26 in Arizona and the remaining 161 in Toronto) and scored 57 goals with 69 assists.  He is a 14.5% shooter for his career.

Bertuzzi played just 50 games in the 2022-23 season, 29 in Detroit and 21 in Boston.  He managed just eight goals and 22 assists.  In Boston's first round defeat to Florida though, Bertuzzi was arguably the best Bruin on the ice: scoring five goals and giving five assists.  For his career, Bertuzzi has scored 92 goals and 126 assists in 326 games.  He is a career 14.1% shooter.

Bunting is 27-years-old and has played in parts of four NHL seasons.  (Here, it's perhaps worth acknowledging that Detroit fans' primary association with Bunting is as "guy who was like a hundred but still somehow eligible for the Calder the year Moritz Seider won it.")  Bertuzzi is 28 and has played in seven NHL seasons.  Both have scored 0.67 points-per-game over their NHL careers.

While boxcar stats put Bunting in Bertuzzi's approximate class, the advanced numbers suggest a more significant gulf between the two players.  Consider the following player cards from HockeyViz.com's Micah Blake McCurdy.

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As you can see, these profiles reveal a few more similarities between Bunting and Bertuzzi but also some significant distinctions.  

By McCurdy's calculations, both are slightly below average finishers and solid (if unexceptional) set-up men.  Neither are particularly good at driving offense on the power play.  Both players generate their offense from the premium areas of the offensive zone surrounding the net.

Bertuzzi's big advantage lies in his ability as a two-way play driver.  Bunting is a good driver of offense but struggles in his own end.  Meanwhile, Bertuzzi is an even better driver of offense while also doing more effective work to secure his defensive zone.

Bertuzzi can also claim a major advantage when it comes to penalty differential.  Bunting draws penalties at a commendable 4% higher rate than league average, while also taking penalties at a 2% higher rate than league average.  Bertuzzi draws penalties at a 52% higher rate than league average, while taking them 21% below average; both figures are not just good but absurd.

So, in considering the boxcar and underlying numbers, what conclusions can we draw about the relative values of Bertuzzi and Bunting?

Bunting proved in his time in Toronto that he could be an effective running mate for some of the Leafs' best players (often assuming the left wing next to Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner during his two years there).  While not an earth-shattering offensive threat, he has proven himself capable in a top six role.

Bertuzzi, on the hand, has proven himself a more complete player and better capable of driving offense without relying on his teammates.  This is not to say that Bertuzzi didn't benefit from playing with quality line-mates.  In Detroit, he was a fixture on Dylan Larkin's wing, while by the end of the season in Boston, he drew the enviable assignment of lining up next to Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.  Still, as the above charts illustrate, Bertuzzi has a much more proven track record of successfully keeping play moving toward his opponent's net and away from his own.

If Bunting is the lesser player, why might he still make some sense in Detroit?  The answer boils down to three factors: price, health/mileage, and role.

Bertuzzi's phenomenal postseason sets him up to hit the free agent market at the perfect moment to cash in.  The Bruins will likely be eager to retain his services, but if they cannot, he will have numerous suitors on the open market.  Toronto might be near the top of that list, with eyes on a Bunting upgrade.  Given the general lack of attractive free agent options this summer, Bertuzzi is likely due for a robust raise on the $4.75 million-AAV deal he signed with the Wings the July before last.  At 28 years of age, Bertuzzi is also liable to want to sign a long-term deal that carries him well into his thirties.

Bunting, on the other hand, should be available at much more modest cost.  Chris Johnston of the Steve Dangle Podcast Network reported last week that Toronto appears likely to cut bait with Bunting, uninterested in bringing him back for a third season in blue and white.  Like Bertuzzi, Bunting signed a two-year deal in July of 2021, but Bunting's was worth a scant $0.95 million AAV.  He will likely want a raise as well, but Detroit could double or triple his salary and still be looking at a much more affordable deal than Bertuzzi's.

The circumstances around Bunting's exit also suggest that he might be open to a shorter term, "prove-it" contract, which could work in the Wings favor.  The primary reason for Bunting's exit was a reckless and injurious high hit on Erik Cernak in Toronto's first round series against the Lightning.  For the play, Bunting received a match penalty and three-game suspension.  After Bunting returned to the lineup (and the Leafs won their first series since 2004), it appeared the two parties might be able to resolve their differences, but once the Panthers brought Toronto's season to an ignominious end a playoff round later, those differences now seem irreconcilable.  

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Instead of hitting the free agent market as a proven scorer due for a major pay raise, Bunting enters at the offseason with a reputation for poor discipline.  Given that circumstance, he may be amenable to a short contract (still with a decent raise on his previous wages) to demonstrate that he can be a functional and effective player outside Toronto.  That could be a perfect fit for Detroit.

It also brings us to the second appeal of Bunting: His (by NHL standards) light workload, relative to his age.  As mentioned above, Bunting is just one year younger than Bertuzzi, but, as Dr. Indiana Jones once said, it's not the years, it's the mileage.  A one-year age gap doesn't tell us much about which of two players might age with more grace; injury history, on the other hand, just might.

Bertuzzi has never played more than 73 games in a season.  The combination of his injury history and age is probably the primary reason Bertuzzi is no longer a Red Wing.  He missed significant time with hand and leg injuries in 2022-23, and, perhaps more troublingly, he underwent back surgery in May of 2021.  As with any back injury, it's hard to believe that the operation will prevent recurrences in the years to come.

In Bunting's two seasons as a full-time NHLer, he played in 79 and 82 games.  He has not sustained a major injury in his professional career.  Though there are of course no guarantees, he looks like a safer bet to remain a productive and healthy player into his thirties.

Finally, the matter of role.  The fundamental appeal for Bunting in Detroit is that he is a decent facsimile of Bertuzzi: a player who can score and fit in from a skill perspective in the top six but who is also no fun to play against.  

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This is not to say that Bunting does this as well as Bertuzzi does (the aforementioned penalty differentials show the contrary), but Bunting can be a budget Bertuzzi in that regard, and that might just be what the Red Wings need.

To be sure, there are legitimate questions as to Bunting's ability to harness his agitating brand of hockey into team success.  While there is at least a hint of Toronto playoff woe hysteria surrounding his exit from the Leafs, it's fair to wonder about Bunting's ability to provoke opponents while retaining his own composure.

Nonetheless, if he does elect to sign a short-term, prove-it deal, Bunting is an option the Red Wings will have to consider.