How the Red Wings Can Get Back into Playoffs: A Coyotes-Red Wings Game Day Notebook
A losing streak has put the Red Wings just outside of a playoff spot. Here’s how they can get it back, plus notes on Detroit's lineup and slow starts ahead of tonight's game against Arizona.
Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports - How the Red Wings Can Get Back into Playoffs: A Coyotes-Red Wings Game Day NotebookDropping their last six contests has put the pressure on the Red Wings' playoff hopes. All that has made winning tonight's game against Arizona almost non-negotiable.
Any conversation about playoffs depends on Detroit’s ability to not only snap its current six-game losing streak, but also to spark a win streak to boot. And while there are 17 games left in the season, all of them — including tonight against the Coyotes — mean a whole lot more given how much the Red Wings need points. This final stretch still puts them in a position to make it in.
“No one had us in the playoffs, we had an 8% chance to be in the playoffs,” Detroit coach Derek Lalonde said Thursday of his team’s position. “If someone would have told us with 17 games left we’d be tied, point-wise, in the last playoff spot — of course we would’ve taken it. And we’ve earned that with some really good stretches in our season. But there’s been some moments in our season where it’s slid, and we’re in one of those moments now and we’ve gotta get it back.”
Let’s run the math. Back in February, Detroit coach Derek Lalonde said the Red Wings needed to get around 95 to 100 points to make the playoffs. At this point, they have 72 with 17 games to play. So with between 23 and 28 points left to make up, they need between 11 and 14 wins to reach that milestone. That’s about a .647 win percentage at worst.
There are some opponents that Detroit absolutely needs to handle to reach that milestone, and tonight’s one of them. Detroit’s remaining schedule includes eight teams that are in the bottom 10 of the NHL, including the Coyotes, Columbus and two games each against Buffalo, Montreal and Pittsburgh. Any conversation about playoffs has to start with winning those games.
But those eight games won’t be enough. The Red Wings also need some big head-to-head wins against fellow wild card contenders, once against the Islanders and Lightning and twice against the Capitals.
Combined, these 12 games would probably get Detroit into the playoffs if it wins them all, but it figures to lose at least a couple of them. The Red Wings are going to have to win some games against Eastern Conference juggernauts in Carolina, Toronto, Florida and the New York Rangers. At the very least, some overtime points could help elevate their position.
At this point, it probably feels like I’ve rattled off the entire remaining schedule, and that’s a pretty accurate representation of what games Detroit needs to win. With the season coming down to the final fifth of the season, there’s a whole lot of pressure on its shoulders.
“It’s not easy, it’s real, we’ve created this,” Lalonde said about the noise surrounding his team’s struggles. “But we also created it with probably exceeding expectations on the other end. But it’s the reality of where we’re at. We need to stop this slide. and here we are with an opportunity tonight.”
The Lineup
Detroit brought up Austin Czarnik from Grand Rapids on an emergency call-up this morning, providing a more defensive option for the lineup. Daniel Sprong will be the healthy scratch at forward. Lalonde said that his team had three or four wings who weren’t responsible enough defensively, and Sprong’s healthy scratch is part of seeking a reset. He hopes Czarnik can achieve that, playing center while Christian Fischer moves to his natural wing position.
“(Czarnik is) smart, he thinks it through. Obviously if he was 6-foot-3 he'd be an everyday NHL guy,” Lalonde said. “He’s at the part of his career now where he’s up and down. But we just need some minutes from him — some responsible minutes, some smart minutes, some team minutes. Hopefully he’ll give that to us tonight.”
Such a move makes sense to provide a bit more defense through the bottom six. The fourth line of Robby Fabbri, Christian Fischer and Daniel Sprong gave up a ton of easy offense relative to their shorter playing time the past few games. Line changes largely broke them up anyway, but Czarnik’s checking game is a lot more useful toward inspiring a better defensive performance than Sprong’s flashy offense.
These lineup combinations disperse a lot more of the scoring compared to the previous arrangements.
Lalonde said Wednesday that Alex Lyon will get the start against the Coyotes. Lyon is winless in his last five starts, giving up at least four goals in every game. While some of that burden does lie with his play, it's also a symptom of the defense in front of him this past stretch. With the promise of a better defensive effort this time around, perhaps Lyon could rekindle his previous form.
Red Wings Looking for a Strong Start
Not only have the Red Wings lost six straight games, but a lot of them weren’t even close down the stretch. Despite some decent stretches of hockey within those games, one of the biggest issues holding Detroit back has been its poor starts.
While the Red Wings have been picking up their proverbial shovels to dig out of their current slump, they’ve also been digging that hole deeper by starting games slow. After 20 minutes, they trailed 2-0 to the Islanders, 3-0 to Arizona and then an abysmal 4-1 to the Sabres on Tuesday. Even in one start against Vegas that Lalonde thought went well, the Golden Knights scored the first two goals. Starting so poorly has given Detroit no runway to make comebacks.
That all has to change against the Coyotes this time around.
“Nothing easy, no easy offense,” Lalonde said of what he wants to see from Detroit’s start tonight. “I just think to give our goaltender a non-chaotic start. I think I talked about (Alex) Lyon’s last two starts, and one of his first looks is an Alex Tuch breakaway. And even the first look in Arizona, if you recall, it’s a quick little 2-on-0 look at our net. He gets a bad bounce off the backboards but it’s chaotic, and we created that chaos. So hopefully a little more responsible start, a little less chaos in front of him.”
This trend existed during the previous win streak, too. The Red Wings received stellar goaltending from James Reimer against Calgary that held them in early, the same as Lyon early on in their overtime win against Seattle.
Detroit’s path to victory against Arizona might not entirely hinge on winning the first period, but it can’t lose it. Ensuring a better result than its 3-0 loss last week is a good start.