Report: Detroit "Kicked the Tires" on Kevin Hayes at the Deadline.  Could the Wings Re-Visit that Move this Summer?

According to Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli, the Detroit Red Wings "kicked the tires" on Philadelphia Flyers center Kevin Hayes at last season's trade deadline.  Though Danny Briere has replaced Chuck Fletcher as Philadelphia's GM in the time since, the Flyers' desire to move on from Hayes, according to Seravalli, hasn't dissipated.

Seravalli reported that Carolina, Minnesota, Dallas, and Columbus also inquired about Hayes at the time, but that the transaction was too complex to be completed by the deadline.  He adds that he expects the Flyers to be willing to retain on the three years and $7.14 million cap hit remaining on Hayes' contract.

In other words, we have it good authority that Hayes is available and that Detroit was intrigued as recently as March. With those data points in mind, might Hayes be worth pursuing further in the coming days?  Let's take a closer look.

In 2022-23, Hayes scored 18 goals and gave 36 assists for 54 points (one shy of the career high he set back in '18-19).  Per MoneyPuck.com, Hayes owned an on-ice xG share of 48.3% at even-strength, a slight improvement on Philly's 47.5% xG share without him.

As you can see in the above chart from Micah McCurdy and HockeyViz, Hayes is decent at driving offense and a bit below average defensively, but his ability as a set-up man and his penalty differential are both attractive.

So, though he's no superstar and even "star" may be an overreach, Kevin Hayes is a useful player.  He's an excellent creator, who can help get your team to the power play and will seldom put it on the penalty kill.  He's by no means an elite scorer, but he can and will score.  During his time in Philadelphia, Hayes also demonstrated his utility on the PK.

All of those qualities are ones Detroit would covet in an off-season acquisition, at least in theory.  The catch for a Hayes-to-the-Red-Wings move has more to do with his age and contract.

Hayes signed a seven-year, $50 million deal back in the summer of 2019.  That $7.14 million cap hit looked like an overpay at the moment it was signed, and that was before the onset of COVID put a years' long damper on the salary cap's acceleration.

Still, Seravalli's reporting suggests that Philadelphia is keen to make move on and therefore willing to retain money for a potential trade partner.  If Daniel Briere did retain 50% of Hayes' remaining money (the maximum allowable under the CBA), a $3.57 AAV over three years becomes much more appealing.  Of course, just because Briere is willing to retain some amount to deal Hayes doesn't mean he's willing to hang on to the maximum amount for three seasons.

It's also worth noting that cap hit isn't the only relevant factor to consider in evaluating a potential trade for Hayes.  At his press conference Tuesday morning, Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman stressed the importance of targeting players who can be a part of the Red Wings' core for years to come when it comes to trades.

"What I'm trying to do is build a nucleus of young players that's gonna be the core of the team for a significant period of time or for the future," Yzerman said. "So if we give up those pieces, and again these draft picks there's no guarantees that they're gonna turn into that, we have to feel that the player we would be acquiring is going to be a part of that core for a long time. It doesn't make sense to acquire a player, give up pieces that we need, and in three or four years that player is retired or moved on and we still don't have that core in place."

That thought process would seem to eliminate Hayes, who turned 31 in May, as a candidate for Detroit.  At his (by modern NHL standards) advanced age, Hayes seems much more likely to have retired or moved on in three to four years than he does to "be a part of that core for a long time."

Furthermore, even if Philadelphia wants to get rid of him, if they do so with the retention required to make him a worthwhile target for a team like the Red Wings, Hayes won't be had at trivial cost.

When you put those two factors together, a trade for Hayes doesn't look impossible, but it doesn't seem to line up with Yzerman's aspirations for the off-season.