Diving into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 6-4 victory over Tampa in the '23-24 home opener
Last night, the Detroit Red Wings scored a 6-4 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning in the home opener to the '23-24 campaign. Here's a look at some of the underlying numbers that defined the evening.
The Big Picture
-On Saturday night, the Red Wings dominated the Lightning in shots on goal, leading the category by a 43-26 margin. Meanwhile, Tampa owned the face-off dot, taking 56% of the game's draws. Though it was a tense, physical evening, penalties were relatively scares—with Detroit assessed six PIMs and the Lighting just four.
-By all situations xG, the Red Wings beat Tampa 4.11-3.11, according to MoneyPuck.com. The site's "Deserve To Win O'Meter," which re-enacts the game (based on shot locations) 1,000 times with average goaltending for both sides, gave Detroit a 65.4% rating.
-This chart from Natural Stat Trick provides a look at the two sides' offensive heat maps at five-on-five. As the chart illustrates, it was an evening where both sides enjoyed plenty of offensive opportunities, but even as the teams traded chances, the Red Wings were more consistent and prolific in the offensive zone. Per the site, Detroit accounted for 67.98% of the five-on-five expected goals for the game.
Individual Impacts
-This chart from MoneyPuck shows the game's expected goals broken down by individual. That Sprong leads the way for Detroit should come as no surprise, considering he netted a goal by tapping home a rebound chance from inches beyond the goal line in the highest danger chance imaginable.
Lucas Raymond shows up just behind Sprong with 0.59 individual xG, and it was an outstanding performance from the third-year Swede.
"He's been buzzing for a while here," said Derek Lalonde of Raymond after the game. "He was really good the other night too. When he is skating like that, he's keeping plays alive. How many plays did he create for himself on the forecheck alone? And then obviously, he's able to make some plays from that. So it's good for him. Hopefully a step in the right direction."
-Of course, the evening's biggest star was Alex DeBrincat, who registered two goals and an assist in 18 minutes and 24 second of ice time.
Per MoneyPuck, DeBrincat registered 0.228 xG on five shots, but scorer that he is, the winger was able to convert that relatively scant xG total into a pair of goals, albeit with the help of a fortunate bounce on the first.
By GameScore (a stat curated by The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn that synthesizes goals, assists, shots on goal, penalties drawn and taken, faceoffs won and lost, blocked shots, and 5v5 goal differential among other categories to provide individual game impacts), DeBrincat led the way for Detroit. He made a difference defensively, he drove tons of offense, and he got himself onto the scoreboard. To the eye test or by the numbers, it could hardly have been a better home debut for the Farmington Hills native.
As Prashanth Iyer noted on Twitter, DeBrincat's performance Saturday was the best of any player in the league to date for the young season.
-Not to be outdone among first-year Red Wings, J.T. Compher finished the evening second among Detroit skaters in ice time (trailing only Moritz Seider) at 21:03 in all situations. He netted a goal and gave an assist, while earning a +3 rating.
Nearly three minutes of that workload (2:48 to be precise) came short-handed, and Compher was also among the Red Wings tasked with riding out the Lightning's late 6-on-5 bid. Detroit carried a 58.70% share of xG with Compher on the ice, while also posting a 66.67% share of the high danger scoring chances.
It might not have been as spectacular as DeBrincat's home debut, but Compher delivered on the qualities that made the Red Wings target him this summer—200-foot command of the ice in all situations, with a commendable scoring touch to boot.
-One area of concern from the Saturday night win might be the performance of Ville Husso.
With the obvious caveat that it was just a one-game sample, Husso yielded four goals on 3.1 xG, per MoneyPuck, for a Goals Saved Above Expected of -0.9. It wasn't an easy night for Husso, considering the Lightning's relative abundance of rush chances, but, in objective terms, he wasn't able to rise to the challenge of his work load.
In the first period in particular, rebound control and freezing the puck seemed to be an issue for the Finnish netminder. On more than one occasion, Tampa was able to prolong their attacking sequences because Husso was unable to swallow up pucks.
Again, it's a small sample, and it was a chaotic night, so there's no need to panic. Nonetheless, Husso's ability to navigate being a true number one goaltender is a major variable for the Red Wings this season. Saturday, he didn't quite meet expectations, but his teammates bailed him out.
Having started Detroit's first two games, I would expect James Reimer to get the start tomorrow night in Columbus. Because the Red Wings are carrying three goaltenders, they will have the luxury of being able to use Lyon as the back-up, meaning Husso could get the night off entirely.
