Debriefing another unlikely Detroit victory, characterized by high emotions, strong goaltending, and another serious deficit in the run of play
DETROIT, MI—Last night at Little Caesars Arena, the Detroit Red Wings (4-3-0) scored a 5-3 victory over the visiting New Jersey Devils. The win brought Detroit to three successive victories, yet it did little to answer the questions raised by the 1-0 win over the New York Islanders two nights earlier. Once again, the Red Wings spent far too long defending, struggled to create and sustain offense, and won anyway. To try to make sense of the result, let's debrief in a bit more detail.
The Game in One Quote
-"I think it carries over. It brings us together. I think you show the team you have someone's back, and it goes a long way. It's hard to bring that every night, but someone bringing it is always a good thing, always positive for the bench, for the hockey team." -Dylan Larkin on Christian Fischer and Ben Chiarot's third period fights
We're going to start here, with Larkin's assessment of the value of the emotional swing Fischer and then Chiarot sparked with their third period scraps, because there is precious little else, whether qualitative or quantitative, with which to explain Detroit's path to the eventual result.
The Red Wings managed to scrape together a lead on a mad 25-second flurry late in the first period. Christian Fischer finished out of a net-front scramble after Andrew Copp wreaked some havoc on the forecheck, then Alex DeBrincat took maximal advantage of two fortuitous bounces for a rush chance. By the end of the second period, however, the game was tied at two, and Detroit looked fortunate to remain even within striking distance.
The game's clear turning point was Fischer's third period fight with Brendan Dillon, which produced first a Red Wings power play and then the goal for Detroit to pull level at 3-3. That power play breakthrough begot another later in the period, and somehow, someway, the Red Wings won, again. It can be easy to dismiss the emotional, human side of sports in favor of things that feel more tangible, but on Thursday night, the emotion and togetherness Larkin described feels as valid an explanation for the result as any.
Number to Know: 2.04
There is one more tangible explanation for the result, and it was the guy in the extra equipment. Cam Talbot made 37 saves on 40 shots for Detroit. There were moments when he looks uncomfortable, both tracking the puck and navigating his crease. He fumbled a Jack Hughes shot in the third that nearly afforded New Jersey a goal, but Talbot's teammates were able to wash out the opportunity. Yet, regardless of some dicey patches, Talbot was unambiguously excellent Thursday night.
Pre-game, Derek Lalonde spoke about the need for Detroit to keep both its goaltenders in rhythm on the heels of two outstanding starts from Alex Lyon. By MoneyPuck's calculation, Talbot accrued 2.04 goals saved above expected in his 37 saves. It's an excellent performance without a doubt, but what is almost shocking is that it is in fact the worst (statistically speaking) goaltending performance the Red Wings have gotten this year.
To get the win on Long Island, Alex Lyon picked up 2.66 GSAx, after a 2.34 GSAx performance in Nashville over the weekend. Meanwhile, Talbot's first win of the year came in a 3.89 GSAx shutout performance over the Predators. Getting good goaltending is a good thing (you are welcome for this insight), yet for Detroit, it's hard not to point to these winning goaltending performances as a major potential source of regression should nothing else about the Red Wings' game change moving forward.
Observations
Surviving 11/7
One factor that has perhaps been under-appreciated in assessing Detroit's win streak is health. It's not the usual form of in-season wear and tear (though there has been some of that) but rather illness that has vexed the Red Wings early. For roughly a week now, Detroit has been battling a flu bug in the locker room. After yesterday morning's skate, coach Derek Lalonde somewhat delicately said that afternoon "trips to the bathroom" for a few Red Wing forwards would determine availability for the evening's game.
As it happened, Detroit was without J.T. Compher, a major all situations minute eater, last night. That forced Lalonde and the Red Wings (who were not able to make the timing and salary cap machinations work for a call-up to add a 12th forward) into playing with 11 forwards and seven defensemen, instead of the customary 12 and six. In his post-game comments, Lalonde explained that the 11/7 proved detrimental.
"I certainly love it on the road, because it's tough to match-up, but at home, not having a top center [Compher] was not comfortable," he assessed. "A couple things: you wanna get some rhythm, but sometimes it's just flat out energy. There's situations where we just had to go with who was available. I do like the fact that we have some centers and wings [who can play both positions]. [Michael Rasmussen] took a couple center shifts, [Joe] Veleno took a couple center shifts, and I felt fortunate to get out of the second period with the minutes in a pretty good situation...A lot goes into it, but tonight, sometimes you go into 7/11 with a purpose, and it's an advantage. Tonight it was a little bit of survival, but it was a credit to the guys battling."
I think Lalonde's point holds water, that the alignment was a detractor last night, one Detroit only adopted out of necessity. It's also worth pointing out that there were likely Red Wings in the lineup last night battling some of the same flu symptoms (and probably have been for the past several games). That certainly can't improve performance against a dynamic and aggressive opponent like the Devils.
The Challenge of Hughes & Hischier and another High-Danger Deficit
In the lead up to Thursday's game, Derek Lalonde referred to New Jersey as among the NHL's elite teams. I must admit I bristled a bit at this assessment, given the Devils failed to qualify for the playoffs a year ago, but when you look at the New Jersey lineup, Lalonde's claim becomes difficult to dispute. With Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier each driving a line in the top six, you have a match-up nightmare for any opponent, and I'm not sure you will find many third defense pairs around the league better than Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce (though to be fair, they functioned more as a second pair despite being listed third on the lineup card).
The Red Wings once again suffered a deficit in terms of high-danger chances. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Devils held a 7-3 five-on-five advantage in the category and 14-6 edge in all situations. However, if we dig in a bit deeper, we can see that it was the Hischier line (with Dawson Mercer and Timo Meier) that proved far more dangerous.
Hughes' line, while it certainly had moments of magic, finished the game even at 1-1 in terms of five-on-five high-danger chances. Hischier's, meanwhile, finished at a 3-0 advantage. An important variable there is match-ups. Hughes played predominantly against Detroit's top pairing of Simon Edvinsson and Moritz Seider. That duo's combination of size, speed, and physicality was mostly effective at containing Hughes and company, even if they struggled to push play in the opposite direction. Meanwhile, the Ben Chiarot-Jeff Petry pair that matched up against Hischier had a more difficult go of it.
It's an interesting dynamic to consider, in part because on Sunday, the Red Wings have the league's foremost two-headed monster coming to town in Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and the Edmonton Oilers. Presumably, Edvinsson and Seider will draw the McDavid match-up, leaving Chiarot and Petry to take on Draisaitl. McDavid will be an even greater challenge for Edvinsson-Seider, but it's one Thursday suggested they are as ready to handle as they can be. Draisaitl's line, however, threatens to be a major problem, particularly if the Red Wings continue to struggle so mightily with recovering loose pucks in the D zone and exiting cleanly. Given Draisaitl's acumen as an in-zone orchestrator, affording that volume of chances has serious disaster potential.
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