Tkachuk? Lafreniere? What the Red Wings’ Roster Could Be Like with a Little More Draft Lottery Luck
Michael Rasmussen could have been Miro Heiskanen. Filip Zadina could’ve been Brady Tkachuk. Moritz Seider could’ve been, well, Moritz Seider. Here’s what the Red Wings could have had with a bit more Draft Lottery luck.
Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports - Tkachuk? Lafreniere? What the Red Wings’ Roster Could Be Like with a Little More Draft Lottery LuckLast night, the Detroit Red Wings stayed put in the draft lottery for the fourth straight year. They had a 1.1% chance to pick fifth overall, but that lucky bounce didn’t happen. Instead, they’ll pick 15th.
It’s logical to say that the available players at fifth would probably be a cut above whoever’s left at 15th. The difference in draft position is one that can have a significant impact on a team’s future, especially over time. The Red Wings know this well, having never risen in the draft lottery and missing out on some key players throughout their eight-year rebuild. They’ve never risen in the draft lottery, and much has been made by saucy fans about their lack of lottery success.
Maybe Detroit’s poor lottery luck is a little blown out of proportion. They’ve lucked out with some picks anyway, like Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond. Maybe all that bad luck in the lottery actually turned fortunate in netting those young stars. But, there’s always the reality that lottery wins could’ve fast-tracked the Red Wings’ rebuild, one that’s still in progress as they’ve yet to make the playoffs. Hey, maybe Detroit did get robbed.
So, let’s feed the fires of those that mourn what was lost in those poor Red Wings draft lottery results. While the current Detroit roster represents a construction made through improvisation later in the draft, let’s analyze what the roster could look like if the Red Wings had more draft lottery success.
Now, let’s establish some ground rules for what we mean by more success. Sure, the Red Wings had a weighted chance to win first overall every year. Technically, this could be a team with eight straight first-overall picks. Rabbit’s foot, horseshoe type luck — the kind that gets kneecaps busted in Vegas. It’s not even worth debating what the roster would look like at that level of lottery luck, because it’d never happen. However, it is worth wondering what could have been if the Red Wings had moved up to their highest percentage upgrade from their end-of-season ranking each year.
So where would the Red Wings land? In 2017, they ended the season seventh-worst but their highest lottery upgrade odds were 7.2% for third overall. In this imaginary scenario, we’re putting them third overall. The same result goes for 2018 and 2019. In 2020, Detroit finished dead last, so maintaining first overall is optimal. In 2021, the sixth-worst Red Wings had the best upgrade odds at 7.8% to pick second overall, so we’ll put them there. The same goes for 2022 and 2023, too. This year, they had a 1.1% chance to pick fifth overall, but whoever’s available there has less impact on the roster so the fruits of that pick won’t be discussed just yet (my money would be on Zeev Buium, though, for those playing along at home).
So overall, a bunch of mid-top-10 picks turn into three third overall picks, three second overalls and a first overall. That’s a lot of juice for the roster. Now, the impact of earlier picks would surely lead to more success for Detroit during successive years. The rebuild wouldn’t take eight years with some of the pieces we’re going to add to the roster. But, it’s impossible to guess where the Red Wings would end the season with these draft adds. For the sake of consistency, we’re going to assume that they stay put. In our draft lottery fantasy, maybe the Red Wings become the new 2010’s Edmonton Oilers, who just can’t figure it out each season and end up struggling despite the riches of their draft hauls.
Now, let’s use those picks. In 2017, Miro Heiskanen went third overall to the Dallas Stars, and the Red Wings certainly needed a blue-liner at that point with the likes of Jonathan Ericsson, Niklas Kronwall and Mike Green losing their luster. Let’s assume that instead of signing Trevor Daley July 1, 2017, Detroit picked Heiskanen.
A year later in 2018, Jesperi Kotkaniemi went third overall in somewhat of a draft day shocker. I think the more likely pick for the Red Wings here would have been Brady Tkachuk, who was more commonly mocked at third that year. A 16-year-old me was desperately hoping that Tkachuk would slip to sixth for Detroit to take after loving his older brother Matthew’s style out in Calgary. Little Tex would be happy to know that in this alternate reality we’re dreaming up, the Red Wings get Brady and all is brash play. And most of all, the Red Wings don’t have to live with their draft bust of Filip Zadina — or their self-inflicted error in not picking Quinn Hughes.
Now, let’s go to 2019, when the Red Wings swung off the board to get Moritz Seider in Steve Yzerman’s first NHL Draft as Detroit’s general manager. Would Yzerman have been so risky if he had Kirby Dach, Bowen Byram or Alex Turcotte available? Picking Seider showed that the Red Wings must’ve really liked his tape to swing that high on someone mocked to the mid first round. Part of me wants to say Detroit picks Byram or Dach just to make for a little more turnover from the current Red Wings to those of fantasy. But hey, Heiskanen needs a righty to play alongside. Let’s build a super team and keep Seider in the Motor City.
2020 is an easy draft to re-do. Despite the rumors of Yzerman’s interest in Stutzle if the Red Wings slipped in the draft, instead he gets to make Alexis Lafreniere at first overall. Lafreniere would be an upgrade over Lucas Raymond, even if he has scored less. With an expanded role with the Red Wings, his successful offensive play at even strength could lead to more goals.
Now, 2021 is where things get as interesting as they are improbable. If they picked second overall, Michigan Hockey legend and Calder winner Matty Beniers would instead be playing for Detroit, just an hour’s drive from his college hockey home in Ann Arbor. This is where the previous draft picks in this scenario would almost certainly preclude this pick from ever happening. But in the rules of this lottery luck story, the Red Wings gain one of the best young two-way centers in the game. Simon Edvinsson goes to someone else.
In 2022, the Red WIngs selected Marco Kasper at eighth, but second overall could have gotten them any of Simon Nemec, Logan Cooley or Shane Wright. However, given the defensive adds and center depth already established in this draft, I think Detroit’s best bet would be to pick Cutter Gauthier at left wing. It might buck the trend of best-available, but does a center depth chart of Lafreniere, Dylan Larkin and Beniers really need any help? And does a Heiskanen-Seider shutdown pairing need that much support?
Finally, let’s wrap up 2023 by ignoring everything I just said about center depth and picking Adam Fantilli second overall. The Ducks swung on Leo Carlsson there, but I think Fantilli’s heavy game would make for great middle sixth depth. I would put him on the wing, where his power forward style can show up a little more.
So here’s how the roster changes:
Michael Rasmussen → Miro Heiskanen
Filip Zadina → Brady Tkachuk
Moritz Seider → A higher-selected Moritz Seider
Lucas Raymond → Alexis Lafreniere
Simon Edvinsson → Matty Beniers
Marco Kasper → Cutter Gauthier
Nate Danielson → Adam Fantilli
How those picks merge into the greater roster would be intriguing, given the way their selection would change nearly every dynamic of the free agency signings Detroit has pursued in the past few years. Maybe all of these picks mean that they could chase a big-time goaltender, filling a massive roster hole at goalie that transcends lottery luck. I’d bank on defense signings and trades to flesh out the roster, but maybe they’d be different. All of these hypotheticals are meaningless given the way that each successive upgrade would affect the picks after them, but this food for thought goes to show the way that any better lottery luck could have drastically changed Detroit’s fortunes. Individually, there’s a chance that each could have happened, changing the present in myriad ways.
Even with all that talent, there's no guarantee that all the extra talent would be panacea to Detroit's playoff absenteeism. The Red Wings would still have to win with those roster pieces, granted such depth down the middle and an elite defense pairing suggest that wins would be plentiful.
In the end, the Red Wings have still ended up with some great hauls from their draft positions. Seider and Raymond are stars, Michael Rasmussen is a solid enough checker who provides a niche value to the lineup. Danielson and Kasper could create excellent center depth down the line if they pan out to their hype, and Edvinsson appears to be a stud defender in the making with his physical play. The only real miss out of the Red Wings’ lottery picks is Zadina. Take it on the chin — every team has draft busts due to the imperfect nature of scouting and development. Just like our fantasy realm where the Red Wings get all those stud players in the top-three, there are so many considerations at stake, even when hindsight judgments make it easy to see what has gone wrong.
Maybe one day, the Red Wings will actually move up in a draft lottery though they certainly don’t want to be eligible for one by missing the playoffs anymore. Instead, they’ll just have to look back at what could have been while finding ways to make the most of their later picks.