Mitch Marner could be on the market if the Toronto Maple Leafs choose to break up their Core Four. Should the Detroit Red Wings pursue him in a trade?

It might be time for the Toronto Maple Leafs to blow up their Core Four. After six years of playoff failure — only one series win and a litany of blown series — their dependence on stars Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander and Mitch Marner has not borne fruit. Already, the dogs are out on a potential Marner trade, one of the more volatile members of the core when it comes to playoffs, and one whose contract expires after next season.

If Marner is on the trade block, should the Red Wings try to land him? He’s the kind of offensively potent “impact forward” that Steve Yzerman could use in the top six, not to mention his defensive abilities were among the Leafs’ best for most of his career. Such an acquisition would come with a hefty cost, however, making it a risky endeavor for a Detroit team that’s still trying to finish off its rebuild. Marner could also nix a deal due to his no movement clause, especially since he was adamant that he wants to stay with the team in his end-of-season press conference Monday.

“That would be the goal,” Marner said of an extension this offseason. “I’ve expressed my love for this place, this city. Obviously I grew up here. I’ll start thinking about (a contract extension) now and try to figure something out.” Later, he described how special it is to be a Maple Leaf (in words you’ve probably seen all over social media), saying “Obviously we’re looked upon as kind of gods here, to be honest. That’s something you really appreciate. The love that you get from this fanbase is unlike any other.”

But if Marner’s time is up with Toronto and Maple Leafs management is moving on — not to mention the way fans are scapegoating him for another playoff loss after a middling performance that included the series-clinching, Game 7, overtime goal being scored when David Pastrnak blew right past him — perhaps Detroit could be in the market for Marner.

Let’s start with the price tag, because that’s ultimately what decides whether these negotiations would be worth Detroit’s while. Marner has one year remaining of his six-year, $10.9 million contract he signed back in 2019. However, a player of his caliber is almost certain to come with an extension past one year given the sheer investment of acquiring them. In Marner’s case, an extension would warrant a pay raise given his regular season success. The assets to acquire him would be costly, likely a top-tier player with a lot of skill and potential. Toronto needs elite defensemen, so someone like Moritz Seider could be in the conversation, though it’s doubtful that Yzerman would want to move him given his importance to the blue line. Perhaps in a forward trade, a player like Dylan Larkin could fall in that swap, but he’s also far too important to the lineup as the Red Wings’ play without him showed. It’s doubtful that prospects would get moved since Toronto wants to win now, and draft picks don’t do much good either other than adding some juice to a trade offer featuring a good player.

Already, we can see that the assets probably aren’t there for Marner to land in Detroit, let alone for the Red Wings to have an interest in acquiring him given how much it would gut their larger talent. But for the sake of theory, let’s say that both teams find a way to make a deal work. How much would Marner actually benefit them?

You can point to Marner’s offensive footprint, the kind of ability that Detroit is looking for in order to balance out the scoring generation beyond Dylan Larkin and a budding Lucas Raymond. While less elite talent than his Core Four compatriots might affect his point totals, it’s reasonable to assume he would continue to create plays for his linemates and drive scoring from the wings. He would also match the heightened defensive responsibilities that the Red Wings coaching staff wants to instill, giving up fewer scoring chances to lower the necessary goal totals to win games. But, he’d also likely cost another elite player of the Larkin, Seider or Raymond level, and that would put further emphasis on him to be the team’s elite star rather than a supporting impact player to raise the Red Wings’ bar. In other words, this trade would be like selling the family car for gas money.

Speaking of money, Marner’s contract would hamstring Detroit for years. That extension he’d probably have to sign to get a trade done would be on the high end — probably past his current $10.9 million. His scoring rate has only increased since his last extension, and his defensive play has maintained its quality. Essentially, he got way better at scoring without becoming a liability. That’s a skill that gets players eight figures any day of the week. Such a high price tag would put the Red Wings in a similar squeeze that the Maple Leafs are feeling when it comes to furnishing roster depth. He’d be the highest player on the roster by far, depending on the Seider and Raymond extensions coming this summer. The available cap space for depth players would be significantly lower, and the Red Wings’ strategy right now is to win through depth while its stars marinate as prospects. Picking up Marner would be a pivot in a new direction — one with a lot more baggage.

Marner might be an intriguing player who could be headed to the trade block, but it doesn’t seem like he’d be the greatest fit for Detroit in its current state. He’s talented but expensive, and his acquisition would likely come with the tradeoff of moving other star players who make the Red Wings competitive.

Perhaps his no movement clause could lower Toronto’s asking price if it’s desperate enough to move him, but a player of Marner’s quality isn’t traded for peanuts. Lowered value is a relative term in this case. The Maple Leafs could also happily try one more time to win with its core, risking a later extension that could lead to free agency. Some Toronto players certainly think the Core Four has the chance to win.

"Look, I don't think there's an issue with the core. I think we were f**ing right there all series and battled hard," Nylander said after the Game 7 loss to Boston. "(We) got to game seven and OT. That's a sh*tty feeling."

As much as the Maple Leafs Core Four might be coming to an end, the Red Wings shouldn’t pursue him to start their own core experiment.

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