Questions asked and answered on new Red Wing sniper Alex DeBrincat: What went wrong in Ottawa, what does he bring to Detroit, and where might he fit in the line-up?

With Alex DeBrincat now a Detroit Red Wing, Steve Yzerman's work for the summer nears its conclusion.  

Yzerman reinforced Detroit down the middle with J.T. Compher.  He helped flesh out the overall array of forwards with Daniel Sprong and Klim Kostin.  He added a right-shot defenseman in Justin Holl and a power play quarterback in Shayne Gostisbehere.

It's not that Detroit's front office will proceed to disengage until training camp opens but rather that the team has addressed its major needs.  At this point, Yzerman and his brain trust can be content to see what else might shake loose without needing to seek out players to fill pressing voids.

Out of all the boxes Yzerman had to check this offseaosn, it was the question DeBrincat answered that mattered most to Red Wing fans: Bringing in a high-powered scorer to kick-start what has been doleful offense in recent seasons.  

In the last four years, Detroit has finished 24th, 25th, 30th, and 31st in the NHL in goals.  Those latter two figures came before Seattle joined the league, which is to say they represent the second lowest and lowest totals in the league for the '20-21 and '19-20 seasons.

DeBrincat arrives with the expressed purpose of bucking that trend, but he doesn't come without any questions, doubts, or inconsistencies about his game.  He managed only* (more on this in a moment) 27 goals in Ottawa a year ago, prompting questions as to just how dependent his success in Chicago was on sharing a line with Patrick Kane.  His (relatively) poor underlying numbers make it fair to question just how impactful he can be on a team with such profound offensive woes.

Let's dive into a few of these questions in more detail.  Specifically, I'd like to focus on what went wrong with the Senators, DeBrincat's profile and toolkit as a player, and where DeBrincat might fit into the Red Wings' line-up.

Why Didn't DeBrincat Click in Ottawa?

In his one season in Ottawa, Alex DeBrincat scored 27 goals and gave 39 assists.  It wasn't a bad season by any means, but it wasn't what the Senators had in mind when they brought him over from Chicago at the 2022 NHL Draft in Montreal.

In Ottawa, DeBrincat spent the bulk of his time at even strength playing on the Sens' second line with Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson.  Per MoneyPuck.com, that trio played 476.9 minutes together, spread across 58 games.

From an expected goals perspective, DeBrincat, Pinto, and Batherson fared well: a 52.9% xG share.  In terms of results, however, the trio was nothing short of disastrous.  They scored 15 times, while conceding 26 for an altogether abject 36.6 Goals-For percentage.

At least some of those poor results have to be attributed to bad luck at either end of the rink.  The Senators had a team save percentage of just .895 last year, so whoever manned the crease (whether it was Cam Talbot, Anton Forsberg, or somebody else) didn't do a good enough job of stopping the puck.  Meanwhile, DeBrincat shot just 10.3%, a commendable figure for the average NHLer but a considerable drop-off from his career mark of 14.4%.

Within the Ottawa media and amongst Senators fans, the narrative that emerged on this front dictated that DeBrincat was incapable of driving his own line, having spent much of his Chicago career paired with Kane.

There was at least some truth in this, given that Ottawa's major tactical choice with DeBrincat was to not use him on the top line (that spot went to the Sens' other crown jewel of the summer of 2022, free agent signing Claude Giroux).  It's also of course true that any player would benefit from playing with one of the great offensive players of his generation (which Kane was, even if those powers were in decline by the time DeBrincat joined him).

However, it's worth considering that there is a spectrum here.  Ottawa's primary issue a year ago was depth.  Up front, a key part of that problem was that Josh Norris (the team's number two center) missed almost the entire season.  That left DeBrincat to work with a 22-year-old pivot playing his first full NHL season in Pinto.  DeBrincat didn't carry that line to elite results, but whether he winds up on Detroit's first or second line, he will have a more proven player centering that line—be it Dylan Larkin, Andrew Copp, or Compher.

It's also worth noting that even in an underwhelming year by his standards DeBrincat still finished with the second-best individual xG total of his career with 28.3 (just behind the 31.2 he posted in his final year in Chicago).  In a down year from a finishing perspective, DeBrincat still registered a shooting talent 31.9% higher than NHL average, per MoneyPuck.  He also set a career high in assists with 39 (two better than 37 the year before) and primary assists with 29 (10 better than the year prior).

So yes, DeBrincat didn't thrive in Ottawa and however you slice it 27 goals was a significant step back from the 41 he put up his final year with the Blackhawks.  Still, DeBrincat managed all that with a center still learning the ropes at the NHL level, while adapting to a new team and suffering from some poor shooting luck.  

If 2022-23 is a bad DeBrincat season, that might just be great news for Red Wing fans.

What Does DeBrincat Bring to Detroit?

The paramount and most obvious area DeBrincat can help the Red Wings is as a goal-scorer.  

The Farmington Hills native has spent six seasons in the NHL; in half of those seasons, he has scored at a 0.5 goals-per-game pace or better.  That includes 41 goals in both '21-22 and '18-19, and a scorching 32 goals in 52 games (0.62 per game, good for a shade over 50  goals in an 82-game season) in the COVID-shortened '20-21 season.

Beyond pure finishing, DeBrincat will also help the Red Wings with his playmaking and aptitude in transition.  The latter category in particular was nightmarish for the non-Larkin Red Wings a year ago.  This chart of hand-tracked zone entry data from Corey Sznajder shows that Larkin was the only Detroit forward who gained the offensive zone with control with any semblance of regularity last season:

This chart from JFresh Hockey (made using hand-tracked data from Top Down Hockey and All Three Zones) shows that DeBrincat can help in this area.  

He does a good job of gaining the O-zone with possession, and he can pass or shoot to create offense once he gets there.  JFresh also shows DeBrincat to be a valuable in-zone creator with his passing.  All of these are qualities that should help assuage the Red Wings' offensive woes:

One subject I don't think has been given sufficient consideration in discussions of DeBrincat's value is durability.  During his NHL career, the main way to keep DeBrincat off the ice has been global pandemic.  Two of DeBrincat's six NHL seasons were shortened by COVID-19.  He played 82 games in all four of the others.

It's also worth pointing out what DeBrincat won't contribute to the Red Wings: He is not a 200-foot play-driver.  The idea that he can't lead his own line stems from this fact. 

DeBrincat is a decisive player more than an influential one.  He isn't the type to drive phenomenal two-way results; he is the type of player who will convert chances at a rate average players cannot.  Of course, that profile benefits from playing with other great players, but that doesn't mean it's useless elsewhere.

Where Does DeBrincat Fit in the Red Wings' Line-Up?

To get a sense of where DeBrincat best fits in the Detroit line-up, let's first consider his profile as a goalscorer.

Like any great scorer, DeBrincat has a deadly shot with a quick release.  It's the kind of shot that can beat even quality NHL goaltending from some distance.  Still, no scorer can make a living on long-range snipes alone.

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmFLWMZ5rM4[/embed]

On the power play, DeBrincat does his damage playing on his off wing along the left flank of his team's formation.  He likes to drift toward the net and the goal line to set up one-time opportunities, and he's more than capable of beating a goaltender from a severe angle.  

This goal against Vancouver from his Chicago days offers a nice illustration of what that can look like.  DeBrincat slips away from the Canucks' coverage (pre-occupied with Kane on the opposite flank), finds open ice, and converts once he gets the puck with a quick release.

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvdWl9AnnhQ[/embed]

David Perron spent a lot of time in that position last year for the Red Wings, and, with respect for Perron's offensive instincts and abilities, DeBrincat should be a significant upgrade.  

He has a more potent shot, which should shift the nature of opponent's PK coverage and focus, he can operate from even sharper angles than he does in the above video, and he can score with a one timer or off the catch from that position.

At even strength, DeBrincat can score in a number of different ways.  He is adept at tipping pucks past goaltenders from the slot, he does great work at creating quality chances in transition thanks to his dual threat acumen as a passer and shooter, and he shows impressive instincts in finding soft ice in which to do damage.

The following is a quintessential DeBrincat-Kane goal from the pair's days in Chicago:

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4iQP6v_gls[/embed]

The Blackhawks catch Washington up ice and out of their neutral zone structure.  That gives DeBrincat and Kane the room they crave in neutral ice, and they take advantage.  The ensuing passing combination is nothing spectacular, but it shows the understanding between the two stars and how quickly they could create offense together.  

This is where Dylan Larkin should be licking his chops at the thought of DeBrincat wearing the Winged Wheel.  Larkin has never had a running mate of DeBrincat's profile and quality.  It might take some time to develop their chemistry, but Larkin's skating and creativity in transition should lead to the same kind of match-up problems for opposing defenses sooner rather than later.

This goal from last season against the Bruins shows a different side to DeBrincat's offensive game.  

One of my favorite aspects of DeBrincat's attacking style is his ability to smell defensive vulnerability.  He plays off defenders' heels well, sneaking behind their shoulder checks into soft ice, and he does a great job of identifying moments at which he might be able to apply pressure with his stick or his movement.

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHbKrIovdNs[/embed]

In this specific example, we can see an example of DeBrincat's knack for finding defensive weakness.  

Fresh off a line change, he sees a chance to slip behind a tired Bruins defense.  Late in their own shifts, Boston defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm are plagued by fatigue and can neither identify nor defend DeBrincat's subtle maneuver to slip between them.  Batherson sends in a lead pass, DeBrincat wins the race for the puck, then collects it before beating Jeremy Swayman for a goal.

So where does this profile best fit in with Detroit?  

The obvious answer, at least to start the season, is on Dylan Larkin's wing.  It's fair to wonder who belongs in the other wing spot on that line (specifically, does it make more sense to pair those two with a third scorer like Lucas Raymond or more a worker bee/puck hunter like Michael Rasmussen).  

Regardless, placing DeBrincat on Larkin's wing should jump-start both players in 2023-24.  It would give the former the chance he never had in Ottawa to flourish with his best teammates, and it would give the latter the kind of support Yzerman named as essential to the Red Wings' off-season, before even the draft.

DeBrincat also belongs on the left flank of Detroit's top power play unit, where he thrived in Chicago and Ottawa.  Again, it will take some time to develop chemistry here.  In Chicago, Kane and DeBrincat worked well on opposite flanks.  In an ideal world, Lucas Raymond and DeBrincat will do the same.  

DeBrincat also showed nice chemistry with Brady Tkachuk on the Sens' power play, with Tkachuk doing an impressive job of creating from the goal line and DeBrincat finishing a number of those chances.  The Wings don't have that type of down-low playmaker on their roster (there are precious few of Tkachuk's quality around the NHL) and the net-front spot on the power play may well be up for grabs.  It will be interesting to see who ends up in that role, and whether they too can provide DeBrincat with quality service.

On that subject, the state of the Red Wing blue line is essential context here as well.  There are a number of factors to why Ottawa failed to live up to pre-season expectations of playoff contention, but a central one is the Sens' rather incapable crop of defensemen by Cup-contending standards.

Among the reasons Vegas' forwards shone to such a dominant degree last postseason is the quality of the stretch passes the Knights' D corps could deliver with regularity.  Ottawa was far from that, and a player like DeBrincat, who wants to create danger in transition, suffered from an absence of teammates who could perform that function.

By adding Justin Holl and Shayne Gostisbehere to a defense group that already had Moritz Seider, Jake Wallman, and Olli Maata, DeBrincat should be looking at an upgrade on that front in Detroit.

Put it all together, and the conclusion that DeBrincat will be a major boon to Detroit's attack this season looks inescapable.  What that means for the 2024 postseason remains to be seen, but the Red Wings' future is, without doubt, much brighter with DeBrincat now a key part of it.