Robby Fabbri's Red Wing career has suffered repeated interruptions through injury. Where does that leave him heading into the 2023-24 season?
Robby Fabbri got to Detroit in November 2019, with a chance at launching himself into an opportunity he couldn't quite find with the then reigning champion St. Louis Blues.
Fabbri started hot, scoring 14 goals and 17 assists in 52 games during his maiden season in Hockeytown. He showed chemistry with Tyler Bertuzzi, and he infused energy into a lineup that needed a jolt. He might not be a star, but he looked like a productive player whose prime could align well with the ongoing rebuild in Detroit.
Unfortunately for Fabbri, the Mississauga-born forward has yet to match those 52 games in any of subsequent seasons with the Red Wings. In fact, his highest games played total in a season came as a 20-year-old rookie in 2015-16, when he played 72.
In '20-21, Fabbri played just 30 games but managed 18 points. In '21-22, he made it up to 56 games and 30 points. Last year, however, was a return to major injury interruptions.
Fabbri's season began in January and was over by March. He played 28 games, scoring 7 goals and giving 9 assists with a 41.3% xG share at five-on-five, per MoneyPuck.com. He couldn't get his season going until he finished rehabbing his third knee surgery since turning professional.
And then, in early March, it was the same unwelcome story. As Derek Lalonde put it at the time, "Obviously his past history, what he has been through, you cross your fingers." Fabbri's season was over at the hands of another lower body injury.
When Fabbri makes it back to the ice in '23-24, he will be entering the second year of a three-year, $12 million contract. From there, a question begs: Where does Fabbri fit in?
The '23-24 Red Wings project to be a much different outfit than the team Fabbri joined in 2019.
That '19-20 team was on its way to finishing dead last in the NHL, 23 points behind second-to-last Ottawa in the standings. The onset of COVID truncated the regular season to just 71 games, but the Wings managed to get just a single player across the 50-point plateau (Dylan Larkin at 53).
Four years later, Detroit's expectations have risen considerably, along with the roster talent. Now, the simple reality is that Fabbri (and especially Fabbri recovering from another serious injury) is no longer a candidate for a place in the top six. At least to start the season, the competition has gotten stiffer, such that it's difficult to imagine Fabbri waltzing straight from injury rehabilitation to a spot on either of the top two lines.
It's unfortunate that injuries precluded Fabbri from enjoying any semblance of continuity throughout his Red Wings tenure. With a sustained run as regular in the lineup, Fabbri could have offer more robust proof of concept that he makes sense in a featured role, but it hasn't gone that way. Instead, Fabbri will have to compete just to a secure a place in the lineup each night.
However, before going too doom and gloom, it's also worth pointing out that Fabbri is only 27, and while he might be in the latter stages of his prime, there is still ample time for him to re-discover his health and form and play his way up the lineup.
To state the blindingly obvious, the first step for Fabbri has to be health and continuity.
Since that first season with the Red Wings, Fabbri's challenge has been establishing a clearly defined role, a task made all the more difficult by missing time due to injury. If he can stay healthy and sustain a run of solid form, that reliability and consistency can in turn set Fabbri up to develop a clear part to play for Derek Lalonde.
Detroit doesn't need him to be a top scorer but pitching in some offense would be a good start. The other side of the puck might prove more important (and more challenging) for him though.
Over the summer, additions like J.T. Compher and Jeff Petry reflected Detroit's desire for improved defensive solidity. Of course, the Red Wings want and need to score more, but there is clearly also an appetite for doing a better job of controlling play.
With that in mind, a key step in Fabbri re-establishing himself as a regular will have to involve a leap forward in his 200-foot play. The following "Isolated Impact" chart from HockeyViz.com's Micah McCurdy suggests that Fabbri is not exactly a play-driving stalwart. Instead, he's underwater at both ends of the ice, while average as a shooter and sub-par as a set-up man.
Given Fabbri's injuries, it's fair to wonder just how valuable last season is as a data set. Is all were seeing the rust of his late start to the season due to last year's injury rehab? Perhaps, but at least some of those numbers need to improve for Fabbri to provide value to Derek Lalonde in the coming season. (It's also worth noting that Fabbri has broken even on xG% share at 5-on-5 just once, and that was his rookie season.)
Points would be useful and welcome, of course, but for Fabbri, an uptick in those possession numbers would be a major coup, reflecting a worthwhile player to deploy in a bottom six role. It's difficult to make a living in the NHL as a bottom six scorer.
At the end of the day, Robby Fabbri is at a major inflection point. His contract runs through the '24-25 season, but beyond that there are no assurances. If Fabbri can bounce back and stay healthy, he will still be young enough in the summer of 2025 to potentially collect another robust NHL contract that will usher him into his 30s. If he can't, Fabbri may have to face the cruel reality of a career undone by an interminable string of injury.
