How Important Are the '24 Playoffs for the Red Wings?
As we draw to the end of a season of ups, downs, and evolving expectations, what's actually at stake in what remains of Detroit's playoff chase?
© James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports - How Important Are the '24 Playoffs for the Red Wings?Last night, the Detroit Red Wings fell 4-3 in overtime at the hands of the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena in D.C. in what MoneyPuck.com calculated to be the most significant game of the NHL season to date in its impact on the playoff race. With the loss, Detroit trails the Capitals by two points for the Eastern Conference's final playoff berth while having played one game more. The Red Wings still have a path to the postseason, but the season-long ambition of snapping the league's second longest playoff drought has grown faint.
But to set aside the feasibility of qualifying for the playoffs with 10 games remaining in the season for a moment, there is a more fundamental question when it comes to evaluating Detroit's season. Of course making the postseason would provide a tremendous emotional lift to the team and fan base alike, but what is actually at stake in what remains of the Red Wings' chase for the playoffs?
Before arriving at an answer to that question, let's take a moment to consider the context in which we're trying to find that answer. The most immediate context is the defeat to the Capitals, which, according to MoneyPuck, has left Detroit with a 29.1% chance at the playoffs (had the Red Wings won in regulation last night, that number would be 49.2% right now).
The reason that road feels so difficult at the moment has less to do with the gap between Washington and Detroit in the standings at the moment. Even having played an extra game, two points represents just a one-win swing, and the Red Wings and Caps play once more before the regular season concludes. Instead, that number is more about the difficulty of Detroit's remaining schedule (due up are visits to Carolina, Florida, and Tampa, before hosting the Rangers—all playoff teams and comfortably so, with New York having even clinched their place last night).
That 29.1% figure is also a reflection of the Red Wings' year-long struggle with consistency. You could see it last night against Washington. The Red Wings had moments of control, with their simple forechecking identity on full display. They also had a costly five-minute lapse in puck management to open the third period and a number of missed opportunities to win, most notably an Alex DeBrincat pass for Moritz Seider on an overtime two-on-one, which caromed off Seider's skate and eventually produced the odd-man rush that afforded the Capitals the game-winning goal.
For a different context, let's turn the clock back to September to consider preseason expectations. "I think every team would love to make the playoffs," general manager Steve Yzerman said before training camp. "We'd be thrilled to make the playoffs. Is it playoffs or bust? When you say playoffs or bust, I guess you're prepared to trade all your draft picks and whatever you have to do. So, no, it's not playoffs or bust, [but] we're gonna try to win every game, and we're gonna try to make the playoffs. To me, it's not at the expense of the future...we're trying to build the nucleus of a team that can make the playoffs on an annual basis."
In that sentiment, Yzerman expressed the postseason as an aspiration while maintaining that long-term organizational health was more important—rejecting the premise that the season was "playoffs or bust." The critical consensus at the time dictated that offseason acquisitions like Alex DeBrincat and J.T. Compher had improved the Red Wings but not so much as to lift them into a playoff position in the crowded Atlantic Division race.
Finally, there is the context of exactly one month ago: When Detroit steamrolled the same Capitals that beat them last night 8-3. The win lifted the Red Wings to a 16-4-2 record for the calendar year nearly two months into 2024 and placed them eight points ahead of the playoff cut line. It is this third context that, should Detroit fail to fight to the right side of that line by the end of the season, will prove most painful.
Our first context suggests that in practical terms, the playoffs remain a possibility but a distant one. Our second reminds us that when the season began, the playoffs were an aspiration, far more than a mandate. Our third context and the over-performance of expectations left the Red Wings in pole position to secure that elusive playoff berth, making it much harder to be rational about the first two contexts.
So, between the ups and downs and shifting expectations of the season, what's actually at stake in the 10 games remaining?
It isn't Cup contention. That was never seriously on the table, even for the most partisan of Detroit fans entering the year. What about next year's roster? Maybe a bit. The Red Wings have seven pending unrestricted free agents, most notably this year's in-season addition, Patrick Kane, and those players have a chance to leave a final impression with respect to their continuity with the organization moving forward. Still, from a more macro perspective, missing or making the postseason based on these final 10 games has little bearing on the state of Detroit's 2024-25 roster.
Instead, what's most acutely at stake in these 10 remaining games is the chance to rubber stamp the 2023-24 season as a marker of irrefutable progress. If the season ended today, the Red Wings would have just about met expectation, albeit via a painful route—improving on last year's effort while falling short of the postseason. However, securing a playoff berth would make the '23-24 campaign an unqualified success.
Yzerman has taken an unconventional approach to the final years of his ongoing Detroit rebuild by adding significant UFAs in each of the last two summers, rather than simply letting the team's youngsters fail forward through early career adversity.
Within that strategy is the implicit idea that a culture of winning is as important to the team's future as the depth of a prospect pool and those young players' development paths. If that weren't the case, the Red Wings would simply have played the kids, extended their tank, and accumulated more high quality draft picks. Instead, Yzerman had the audacious idea that winning was his priority. It might not be "playoffs or bust," but if the results in '23-24 didn't matter at all, there was no need for last July's spending spree, nor the previous July's.
Thanks in no small part to additions like Kane, Compher, and, despite his tendency toward streakiness, DeBrincat, that approach has left Detroit with a credible chance at the playoffs 72 games into the season. Securing that playoff berth would provide tangible proof that the Yzerman-run Red Wings are indeed a winning organization.
Making the postseason this year is not a guarantee of future success, nor does failing to do so doom the Yzerman era to failure. Instead, what's at stake with 10 games left is the chance for this season to prove that Yzerman's process—winning your way out a rebuild, not tanking out of it in the style of the mid-2010s Philadelphia 76ers who defined the tank-as-rebuild-process—is working.