Kane's Heroics Embody Opportunistic Detroit Victory: Red Wings-Blackhawks Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' OT victory in Patrick Kane's return to Chicago
Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports - Kane's Heroics Embody Opportunistic Detroit Victory: Red Wings-Blackhawks Statistical Review"I don't think we had our best as a team tonight, but we still found a way," said Patrick Kane, the author of the overtime-winning goal and the evening's hero, playing as a Red Wing for the first time in a building where he was once the most beloved of all the Blackhawks. The underlying numbers bear out Kane's assessment of Detroit's 3-2 win in Chicago—far from dominant but just decisive enough to scrounge up both of the two points available on the evening. Let's take a closer look at how the Red Wings pulled it off.
The Big Picture
-Per MoneyPuck, Chicago earned a 4.10-1.64 edge in expected goals over the course of 61:43 of hockey Sunday evening, and the Blackhawks commanded the run of play from start to finish.
After the first period, they lead 1.381-0.579 by xG, though they trailed 1-0 on the scoreboard. After the second, Chicago led 2-1 by actual goals and 2.565-0.907 by expected ones. After the third, that margin swelled to 3.617-1.437, but the score was tied at two. The Red Wings also lost the special teams battle, conceding on the Blackhawks' lone power play attempt while never receiving a man advantage of their own. However, as Kane said, Detroit nonetheless found a way.
-The below five-on-five unblocked shots heat map from Natural Stat Trick shows the way the Red Wings generated a decent volume of offense, but their hosts were far better at driving quality offense with a high concentration of attempts converging at the net. However, as Alex DeBrincat's third period equalizer from below the goal line proves, sometimes in a one-game sample that sort of concentration doesn't mean all that much.
NST's five-on-five stats reinforce the idea that the Red Wings trafficked in volume, while Chicago generated quality. Detroit earned a commendable 53.85% CorsiFor and 58.33% share of scoring chances but just a 36.84 of high-danger chances and 40.17% share of the expected goals.
Individual Impacts
-This section has to begin with the night's hero, whose performance embodied his team's. Patrick Kane played 18:13 and earned just a 17.1% share of on-ice xG at five-on-five. And yet he delivered the game-tying assist in the third period then scored the game-winner in OT. He had four shots totaling 0.213 xG (both second on the team to Lucas Raymond). That was the story of the evening for Detroit: poor underlying numbers, a wayward and perhaps distracted performance, but to use Kane's phrase once more, finding a way to win when it counted.
-The Red Wings' third line of David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Joe Veleno was the only regular unit to break even at five-on-five. They played 12:30 together, and while they didn't score, they put up a 62.7% share of on-ice xG in those minutes. With that performance, it's fair to say this line can serve as a solid facsimile of the Michael Rasmussen, Copp, Christian Fischer third line it replaced. Their role need not be to score regularly but rather to win shifts and drive play to the offensive zone (though of course some scoring is a nice bonus).
-There were two Blackhawk lines driving the bulk of Chicago's offense. The first was Philipp Kurashev, Connor Bedard, and Anthony Beauvillier, who earned a 67.5% share of on-ice xG in 13:15 at five-on-five. The second was Colin Blackwell, Jason Dickinson, and Joey Anderson, who put up a remarkable 91.7% share of on-ice xG in 12:14 together at five-on-five. However, in keeping with the night's theme, neither of those units could turn those commanding play-driving numbers into a five-on-five goal.
-On the back end, this was a classic Jake Walman-Moritz Seder performance. They endured a heavy five-on-five workload, suffered by underlying numbers as a result, but wound up with an advantage on the scoreboard by the time the game was done. The pair played 17:38 at five-on-five. Their primary match-up was the Bedard line, but, it being a road game, it was quite as consistent match-up as we've seen them tackle on home ice (Seider played 7:33 against Bedard at five-a-side, as a reference point). Walman and Seider were outchanced 0.344-1.024, yet they emerged from that with a 1-0 edge on the scoreboard.
-Finally, this was another strong performance from James Reimer in net. There were certainly some ropey moments in the early going, with a few chaotic scrambles at his net in the first period, but, by night's end, he'd undeniably done his job well. Reimer made 33 saves on 35 shots. Those 35 shots amounted to 4.105 xG, leaving Reimer with a 2.11 Goals Saved Above Expected (again, per MoneyPuck). With his last two performances, Reimer has suggested that Detroit needn't worry about its back-up goaltender situation, even with Ville Husso out injured. Both in Calgary and last night in Chicago, Reimer faced a difficult workload and delivered strong results.