A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings 2-1 OT win over Colorado last night at Little Caesars Arena
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings 2-1 OT win over Colorado last night at Little Caesars Arena
Last night, on the strength of a triumphant Patrick Kane game-winner, the Detroit Red Wings earned a 2-1 overtime victory over the visiting Colorado Avalanche at Little Caesars Arena. It was a win born of both depth and star power, which, paired with some Red Wing-friendly results around the rest of the Eastern Conference, left Detroit in the first wild card slot as the evening concluded. For a clearer sense of how the game played out, let's take a look at the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-The Red Wings claimed a 3.05-2.89 edge in all situations expected goals, according to MoneyPuck. Colorado dominated the first period (taking an 0.919-0.381 advantage in xG), but Detroit seemed to find its collective legs in the second, steadily building toward its eventual OT victory.
-The below five-on-five heat map shows the two sides produced relatively balanced results when it comes to chance creation. Both teams were able to drive quality offense to the slot at commendable volume. The Avalanche perhaps concentrated a touch more of this offense at the net itself, but the Red Wings certainly had those chances as well.
-A key differentiator for the Red Wings was once again the special teams battle. Colorado earned a 58.21% share of five-on-five xG (per Natural Stat Trick) and scored the game's only five-on-five goal. However, Detroit held the Avalanche scoreless in three power play attempts while converting on one of its four tries. The Red Wings also had an edge in blocked shots (20-11).
Individual Impacts
-Throughout the season, Detroit has leaned heavily on Jake Walman and Moritz Seider as a match-up pair, and last night was no exception, with that duo doing yeoman's work against one of the most dynamic lines in the NHL.
Walman led the Red Wings in five-on-five ice time at 18:27. He played 13:48 against Nathan MacKinnon, 13:42 against Mikko Rantanen, and 12:13 against Jonathan Drouin. Seider was second at 18:04, and he played 13:49 against MacKinnon, 13:39 against Rantanen, and 12:10 against Drouin.
It's not as though Walman and Seider entirely silenced that trio. In fact, in their 14:59 on the ice together at five-on-five, they were out-chanced 0.422-1.531. However, they didn't give up a goal, and while Rantanen and MacKinnon did combine brilliantly to score against Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry, Seider-Walman did exactly what the Red Wings need from them by absorbing a ton of pressure from an elite top line and emerging completely unscathed.
-The below chart of individual xG contributions shows the depth Detroit enjoyed in terms of chance creation. MacKinnon led the way for Colorado with 1.00 xG all by himself, a borderline ridiculous effort that accounted for 34.6% of his team's xG for the evening.
On the other hand, the Red Wings got meaningful contributions from different players up and down the lineup, with Lucas Raymond (0.49), Kane (0.44), and Robby Fabbri (0.40) leading the way. No Avalanche skater except MacKinnon cracked 0.4 xG by themself.
-I don't want to linger too long on line combinations from the Detroit side of last night's game, in large part because the Red Wings did quite a bit of in-game tinkering and juggling in the third period as they sought an equalizer. However, one Red Wing forward whose performance absolutely merits individual recognition is Dylan Larkin.
Derek Lalonde spoke last night about how he believes Larkin has been liberated by Detroit's depth this season to feel as though he doesn't have to be all offensive to play a great game.
Last night, Larkin did a bit of everything. He scored the game-tying goal, he assisted on the game-winner, and he led the team in five-on-five xG share at a ridiculous 78.1% (the sort of lopsided number you might expect out of a lightly used fourth liner, not a team's busiest forward). It was a phenomenal performance from the Detroit captain.
-Finally, before closing, Alex Lyon deserves commendation for another outstanding performance in goal. He stopped 30 of the 31 shots he faced, which added up (per MoneyPuck) to one goal against on 2.894 xG for a Goals Saved Above Expected of 1.89.
At this point, it seems safe to say that Lyon's day off in Calgary achieved the "reset" Lalonde desired, and the Baudette, Minnesota-born goaltender has been back to the imperious form he showed throughout January in his two starts since.
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