Lyon makes long-awaited Red Wing debut, Sens review by the numbers, a clash of team-building styles, Holl faces his former team, and everything else you need to know before Toronto-Detroit this afternoon
On the heels of a disappointing overtime loss to the Senators, the Detroit Red Wings will return to action today for their second of two games at Stockholm's Avicii Arena, taking on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Here's everything you need to know ahead of today's game:
Oct 5, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) speaks to former team mate Detroit Red Wings defenseman Justin Holl (3) in the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Lyon Debuts in Net
Alex Lyon will make his first regular season start as a Red Wing today against the Maple Leafs. With Ville Husso stateside with his wife and newborn daughter and James Reimer having started last night, it is at last's Lyon's chance in the crease for Detroit.
“I want as much NHL time as I can get,” Lyon said Wednesday, per the team's website. “I want to continue to prove myself at this level. Those are the things that motivate me.”
To be sure, this is a major opportunity for Lyon to prove that he is deserving of more ice time when the Red Wings return to the States, challenging though it may be to return to game action after a prolonged layoff. Such is the plight of the third goalie.
Reviewing the Senators Loss
After the game last night, Dylan Larkin referred to the outcome as "very deflating" in a blunt summation of his team's performance, though Derek Lalonde was a bit more positive, referring to his team's five-on-five play as "great."
By the underlying numbers, the Red Wings were narrowly outplayed in all situations, falling 3.7-3.8 in the xG battle.
Cumulative xG, per MoneyPuckTo Lalonde's point, the Red Wings' performance at five-on-five was mostly positive, according to Natural Stat Trick. At five-on-five, the site credited Detroit with a 60.87 CorsiFor% and a 65.79% share of scoring chances. However, a woeful 38.46% share of the game's high-danger chances at five-a-side corresponded to a 44.01% share of xG at five-on-five, reflecting some of the team's difficulties in the defensive zone. The below chart of scoring chances (with abundant slot opportunities for the Senators) reinforces this point.
Scoring Chance Map, courtesy of MoneyPuckOne positive from the performance was the Red Wings' third line of Robby Fabbri, Joe Veleno, and Christian Fischer, who earned an 83.3% share of on-ice xG during their 10:34 of five-on-five ice time.
A major negative for Detroit was the Jeff Petry-Ben Chiarot pair, which was on the ice for four goals against (two at five-on-five). In 11:28 together at five-a-side, they posted a dreadful 24.0% share of on-ice xG.
For the Red Wings to take strides today against the Leafs, major improvement in the defensive zone will be a prerequisite.
Clash of Team-Building Styles as the Leafs Meet the Red Wings
Today's game presents an interesting conundrum when it comes to the age-old sports debate concerning "rest vs. rust." The Red Wings skate into the game feeling some measure of fatigue, having played last night. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs haven't played in nearly a week, having been out of action and traveling to Sweden following a win over Vancouver last Saturday.
Normally, you'd expect a team playing the second leg of a back-to-back to be at a disadvantage against a well-rested opponent, but perhaps today's game provides a test case for an exception—if that opponent is not just rested but rusty after a prolonged period out of action.
Regardless, the Leafs made the trip to Sweden riding good form, having won two straight and three of their last four before making the trans-Atlantic trip.
There are legitimate questions to be asked about Toronto's depth—both up front and on the back end. Nonetheless, the team's stars have paved the way to a reasonably successful start to the season.
Auston Matthews—who mustered a mere 40 goals a year ago, disappointing by his illustrious standards—has a monstrous 13 goals in 15 games to open the season, and William Nylander is on pace for the best season of his career with a team-high 22 points in the same 15 games.
There is a sense of contrasting team-building approaches (dictated by lottery luck as much as anything else) when Toronto and Detroit collide. The Maple Leafs formula for success depends on lottery picks like Matthews, Nylander, and Mitch Marner carrying a lineup that might suffer from depth issues because of the robust salaries commanded by the team's stars. Meanwhile, the Red Wings are banking on the idea that they can claw their way back to the postseason on the strength of improved depth, having not had the same good fortune that the Leafs enjoyed in their rebuilding years when it comes to the draft lottery.
Today's game won't offer definitive proof as to which approach works better, but the contrast provides interesting context to the game.
Justin Holl Returns to Lineup to Face Former Team
After a disappointing effort last night, Jeff Petry is out of the lineup for Detroit today, and former Leaf Justin Holl fades back in to face the only NHL team he had known prior to this season.
Holl became something of a whipping boy by the end of his days in Toronto, but nonetheless had only praise for the team and organization when asked about it in the preseason by THN: "I really enjoyed my time in Toronto. We had great teams, great guys on the team. We experienced a lot success as a team, so I have nothing but good things to say about Toronto."
This will be Holl's first chance to play against his old squad in a regular season game.
Where to Watch
Today's game (another 2:00 PM start stateside) will be broadcast by the NHL Network as well as Bally Sports Detroit.