What Michael Rasmussen’s Last Extension Tells us About Joe Veleno’s Next Contract
Joe Veleno is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this offseason. Using Michael Rasmussen’s 2021 extension as a comparable, we can estimate what Veleno might make on his next contract.
Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports - What Michael Rasmussen’s Last Extension Tells us About Joe Veleno’s Next ContractFor all the attention that restricted free agents Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond have gotten to start the Red Wings’ offseason, they aren’t the only prospects due for another contract. There’s also third-year NHLer Joe Veleno, whose one-year, $825,000 prove-it deal is set to expire.
A 2018 first-rounder, Veleno had his best statistical season this year with 28 points, including career-highs in goals and assists. It seems probable that Veleno will get a raise this offseason if Detroit keeps him around. Now, it’s up to Veleno and the Red Wings to come to an agreement on his next contract.
So what exactly might this deal look like? To start, we need to understand what each side brings to the bargaining table. Veleno played a more significant role for the Red Wings this season than at any other time in his career. He mostly played a bottom-six role, but he did fill in at top-line center at one point though he did not produce like someone meant for that role. He also killed penalties. Veleno isn’t a flashy player, but he’s predictable in a limited role where coaches want to know exactly what he’s going to bring as a third- and fourth-liner.
In looking for a comparable, there are a lot of similarities between Veleno and Michael Rasmussen when the latter signed his last three-year, $1.4 million AAV extension back in 2021. Rasmussen benefitted from a worse Red Wings lineup to earn playing time back then, but he was largely a bottom six checker just like Veleno is now. Rasmussen scored 0.29 points per game through his first 102 games, while Veleno sits at 0.28 through 232 games. If we compare seasons directly — Veleno this season and Rasmussen in 2020-21 — Veleno had more of an offensive impact with 7.9 expected goals created compared to Rasmussen’s 6.9 at the time, but Rasmussen played half the games as Veleno’s contract year due to the schedule limitations of the COVID-19 pandemic season. Rasmussen then isn't a mirror image of Veleno now, but he's a close enough comparable to show how general manager Steve Yzerman might approach this contract.
More than anything, I use this comparison because Rasmussen then and Veleno now are both in a similar situation. They’re both first-round picks who haven’t lived up to what their draft position might have hyped up. Much like Rasmussen a few years ago, Veleno projects to be a bottom-sixer for the foreseeable future unless he really has a renaissance. He's going to get paid for that role more so than his potential at this point in his career.
Back when Rasmussen signed his $1.4 million AAV deal, he made up 2.4% of the salary cap. If we apply the same proportions for Veleno to the estimated $87.7 million cap next season, it comes out to around $2.1 million AAV. This seems to be an appropriate starting point for Veleno's next deal, though his experience and back-to-back 20-point seasons might give him more negotiating material.
But cap hit is just one part of the equation here — we also have to look at term. While Rasmussen’s three-year contract gave him the opportunity to earn a much larger, $3.4 million AAV contract he signed in February, Veleno might want a similar runway to prove he can earn a bigger deal.
However, Veleno might also value his autonomy and opt for a shorter contract duration. With little mobility within the Red Wings’ lineup, he might want to explore a departure in the future, whether through trade or free agency, to a team that can give him a bigger role. Term is a guarantee for players to make NHL money, but it’s also a sentence for them to stick with the team. If Veleno and his agent doesn't think he'll earn a bigger role with Detroit, an earlier exit might suit him to chase a bigger role.
Meanwhile, from a Detroit perspective, Veleno has some potential to grow from here, and his bottom six play is more advanced and more predictable than it would get from putting a cheaper rookie in his position. But, signing Veleno to a contract keeps him on the roster long term, when the likes of Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson and Carter Mazur join the forward corps. Would Veleno factor into this long-term roster, or would he take away a roster spot from someone who might have more of an impact? This is a key consideration for Yzerman and the front office to consider.
I believe a three-year contract would be a good fit for Veleno and Detroit, taking him up to 2027 when he gains UFA status. Much like Rasmussen did, that span of time gives Veleno a chance to carve out his niche on the NHL roster. Whether he can earn a bigger contract in the future will likely depend on the outcome of his next few seasons, but three years balances both Veleno’s and Detroit’s needs out of this contract.
Something to note: with arbitration rights, Veleno has a bit of an upper hand on his contract negotiations this offseason. If the Red Wings tender a qualifying offer to Veleno and he doesn’t agree to a contract, he can elect for arbitration where a third-party will set terms for a one-year contract. The Red Wings' qualifying offers will determine whether this process happens, and it can be avoided with an earlier signing.
All in all, it seems as though a contract in the ballpark of a three-year, $2.1 million deal would fit Veleno and Detroit well. It’s a big bump from his prove-it deal a year ago, one that didn’t come until deep in the summer. It also keeps Veleno with the Red Wings for a term that suits both his and Detroit’s needs.
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