Alex DeBrincat and the Art of the Near Miss
Alex DeBrincat is struggling to be the goal scorer he was billed to be when he joined the Detroit Red Wings, in part because he’s missing the net more than ever before
Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports - Alex DeBrincat and the Art of the Near MissNo one on the Red Wings roster has shot more than Alex DeBrincat this season. No one has missed as much, either. This tradeoff is expected of a high volume shooter, but what’s unexpected is how much DeBrincat has missed this season.
DeBrincat’s stick was brought in for a reason — his knack for shooting was exactly why Steve Yzerman and the front office traded for him. The idea went that his stick can create goals that the Red Wings’ roster otherwise can’t, but those have largely dried up as the season has worn on. That hasn’t been for a lack of attempts. Rather, DeBrincat’s problem is the art of the near miss.
In fact, a significant part of the issue is DeBrincat’s overall accuracy. This season has marked a career high 32.8% of unblocked shots that have missed the net. That rate means that for every 100 shots DeBrincat has fired at the net, about 33 have hit the boards and glass behind the goal instead. His previous career high was 28.2% his rookie year in Chicago. DeBrincat is getting his shooting chances, but he’s just not getting them on net to potentially score a goal.
Such a statistic doesn’t show fault in DeBrincat’s process. It takes successful plays for him to get the puck and shoot to begin with. Rather, the results are the issue. It’s fair to call him unlucky, and that’s unfamiliar territory for him.
Luck has often been on DeBrincat’s side in his career. In four of his seven seasons so far, he has shot above a 15% rate, all of which were above his expected percentage ranging from 12-14% in those seasons. If you don’t believe in luck, all this means is that DeBrincat has been good about making tough shots up to this point in his career.
This season, though, has been a heat check. DeBrincat has missed the net 86 times this season, the most of his career in a year he’s played the second fewest games to date. DeBrincat’s 13.1% shooting isn’t his career worst — that belongs to a dismal 8.7% in 2019. But that rate doesn’t account for shots that don’t reach the goal. If you take those into consideration, his 8.8% shooting rate on unblocked shot attempts is the third worst of his career and about 2% off his career worst (per Moneypuck). Overall, that unblocked shooting percentage ranks fifth worst on the Red Wings roster.
From where he is shooting, DeBrincat should not be experiencing that kind of season. For all situations, his net miss percentage above expected is sitting at 6.1%. That’s a fancy way of saying his shots aren’t hitting the net despite shooting from positions where they normally should.
For context, that miss percentage ranks third on the team behind Joe Veleno (11.5%) and Michael Rasmussen (8.5). However, DeBrincat has taken more shots than the two of them combined. He’s about 100 attempts ahead of everyone not named Dylan Larkin.
Put it this way DeBrincat is snakebitten, and in a bad way.
This outcome is a rapid reversal of his previous career fortunes. He actually missed the net less than expected for five straight seasons, including well above 3% for the past four seasons. That contributed to his high shooting percentage in those years, which helped him earn a reputation as a sniper. Such a pedigree led to the Red Wings picking him up as their shooter, but he didn’t pack his luck with him.
Missing the net comes with the territory of being a high volume shooter like DeBrincat, but the rate he’s doing so is costing him goals.
It could be worse. All told DeBrincat’s miss percentage above expected ranks 17th among forwards who’ve attempted 300 shots on the season. The shooter who leads that stat, funny enough, is Sam Reinhart, the Florida forward who has 45 goals this year to rank second in the NHL. He’s missing the net entirely 11.4% above expected (imagine how scary it would be if he wasn’t!). Missing the net is a symptom of a shooter being in an opportunity to score in the first place. It doesn’t mean a player is having a bad season.
Even in Detroit’s most recent game against Vegas, the contrast between the success of DeBrincat’s process and failure of his results showed up. No one on the Red Wings’ roster attempted more shots than him, and no one generated more expected goals. Yet at the end of the game, DeBrincat walked away with zero points to show for his efforts. He had his opportunities, including three power play shots that missed the net in the third period (one off a broken stick at 8:40, illustrating his bad luck yet again). As has been the case often this season, the disconnect between the chances DeBrincat earns and the chances he scores might have otherwise swung the game.
All this is to say, it’s been a rough year for DeBrincat when it comes to results. That doesn’t mean he’s been ineffective on the ice, and no one could argue that in good faith. His 23 goals rank second and his 54 points tie for first on the Detroit roster. But it’s reasonable to assume that those numbers — especially the goal department — would be a lot higher if he were having a better season of shooting.
Perhaps DeBrincat might be trying to pick the corner too hard in an aim-small-miss-small profession. He might also be second-guessing himself because of how frequent goal slumps have been for him. He has had five goalless streaks of four games or more this season, including a season-high of 10 back in January.
Regardless of the cause, DeBrincat has put himself in the right spots to make plays this season. Except for the potential to make some minor shooting corrections, all he can do is keep doing that and hope that good luck catches up to him.
There’s still time for DeBrincat’s miss rate to level out, and the advent of newfound puck luck would come at a crucial time. Detroit is on the outside of the playoff race looking in right now, in large part because its offense has dried up during its five game losing streak. With a rejuvenated stick from DeBrincat, perhaps the Red Wings could bounce back.
DeBrincat is Detroit’s top shooter for a reason, even if he’s missing the net a lot. If he can correct his near misses, the Red Wings’ luck might turn, too.