A statistical review of the Red Wings’ 5-3 loss to Vegas, including notes on Alex DeBrincat’s cold streak, fourth-line struggles and net-front defense
A statistical review of the Red Wings’ 5-3 loss to Vegas, including notes on Alex DeBrincat’s cold streak, fourth-line struggles and net-front defense
Detroit didn’t pull punches after last night’s 5-3 loss to Vegas — that one hurt.
Notching their fifth straight loss and surrendering a lot of chances early on, the Red Wings nonetheless battled back to a 3-3 tie in the last 10 minutes. But in the end, the too-little-too-late nature of their performance gave way to a Golden Knights win.
“This one stings a lot,” Derek Lalonde said after the game. “To come in this building on a back-to-back, outshoot a team like that 13-5 with a lineup they have, and come up empty-handed feels a little empty, feels a little disappointing.”
Where did that pain stem from? Why couldn’t Detroit pull this one off? Let’s take a closer look.
The Big Picture
It’s hard to win a hockey game when losing the expected goals margin 5.74- 3.68, which was how the Red Wings trailed when all was said and done last night according to data collected by Moneypuck. Vegas led that battle about six minutes into the game, and it never relinquished its control on that front. At Detroit’s lowest, it trailed 3.418-0.864 in xG six minutes into the second period, though it only trailed 2-1 on the scoreboard. During the second half of the game, the Red Wings turned in a more complete effort, and the results showed. They outshot the Golden Knights 13-5 in the final frame, and they had the chance to win the game from 10 minutes onward until Vegas took the 4-3 lead in the final minutes.
Even if their efforts trimmed the deficit from there on out and had a fighting chance to win, the Red Wings gave up a lot early that they shouldn’t have. They played the style of a team that wanted to win a firefight, but without Dylan Larkin they really don’t have the fire power to do so. It's important that Detroit didn't give in, though, and emulating its third period form could help break the losing streak.
Expected goals can be deceiving, though, and shot danger is a lot more indicative of deserved goals. In that department, let the heat map speak for itself.
The Golden Knights dominated at the Red Wings’ net front, which made for a tough night for goaltender James Reimer. In its own offensive end, Detroit made due with a lot of shots from the left circle. The Red Wings didn’t defend the net well enough, and they didn’t get enough penetration on the Golden Knights’ net to make a difference. That this game was close speaks to Detroit’s resilience down the stretch, because it very easily could have gotten out of hand early.
Individual Impacts
After Detroit lost a painful 7-2 game to Colorado earlier in the week, I said that Alex Lyon played about as well as you can when giving up five goals. I stand corrected. Reimer set the bar on that front, letting in four goals on 4.95 expected. The difference was the team in front of him, and the Red Wings didn’t cave even if their performance wasn’t enough to control Saturday’s game. Maybe that’s where the hurt is coming from, but that’s a good pain for a team that’s fallen flat the past five outings. They’re putting in the effort to win during a difficult situation without Dylan Larkin, even if the luck hasn’t gone their way
Speaking of luck, it hasn’t been on the side of Alex DeBrincat as of late, and especially last night. Generating a team-leading 1.36 expected goals off three shots. The issue, though, has been his shooting accuracy. On eight attempts, seven went unblocked last night and four missed the net entirely. Among forwards, that was the lowest percentage for either team. As Detroit’s highest volume shooter, a stick it brought into score, such a cold streak is another part of the reason the Red Wings have reeled these past five games. But based on his expected goals, the issue is in the results more so than process.
In his first game since getting called up, Jonatan Berggren played sparingly with an up-and-down performance. He generated .038 xG, but it was his turnover on a cross-ice pass that led to Vegas’ second goal. Lalonde liked Berggren’s compete level throughout the game even if it was imperfect.
With Berggren in the lineup, the lines stabilized a lot more than the last game when Detroit ran 11 forwards and seven defensemen. The results were far from perfect. None of the lines earned a positive margin in expected goals, and none were worse than the fourth line of Robby Fabbri, Christian Fischer and Daniel Sprong. The trio gave up 1.852 expected goals and a 2.6% xG for percentage in six minutes of ice time. They also earned a Corsi percentage of 3.8%. Little went right for that line.
I would think that such an outing might lead to some different line combinations, but the question then goes to how exactly Lalonde plans to mix them. With Larkin out, building a competitive top six has taken a lot of bite out of the bottom six, and any tinkering has to prioritize the lines that get more minutes. However, surrendering such a hefty margin for the other team isn’t sustainable either no matter how slim the fourth line’s minutes are.
On the blue line, Lalonde left Jake Walman out of the lineup as a “coach’s decision.” Instead, he kept Justin Holl in the lineup beside Shayne Gostisbehere and put Ben Chiarot with Moritz Seider. As evidenced by the number of Golden Knight shots at the net front, that defense left much to be desired. Whatever lesson or advantage Lalonde was trying to get by leaving Walman out, it didn’t seem to materialize.
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