Steve Yzerman and the Detroit Red Wings' premise behind signing Vladimir Tarasenko last Jul. 3 made sense.

Tarasenko was fresh off a five-goal postseason as a Florida Panther that ended in his second career Stanley Cup.  The Red Wings hadn't connected on their hunt for a top six scorer as free agency opened, and while it might have been a slight overpay (as unrestricted free agency also seems to bring), Tarasenko could add a combination of scoring touch, winning experience, and rugged skill.  At least in theory.

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In practice, Tarasenko scored 11 goals over 80 games in his debut season as a Red Wing, his worst total since 2012-13, when he scored just eight but was only 21 years old and played only 38 games.  That output certainly didn't meet the promise of Tarasenko's signing.

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Yzerman said as much in his end-of-season remarks: "Vlad Tarasenko?  [I] expect more production out of him.  I think his play was better probably than his production, what we'd expect from him.  As a goalscorer, I would say he was frustrated in not being able to produce, and I think that affected his attitude and that affected his play.  I think overall you try to reassure him that you're doing a lot of good things out there, and don't let the missed chances or the inability to score affect your play.  I'm hopeful and expecting him to give us more than he did this year, because...I believe he can give us more than what he showed this year."

As the man who signed Tarasenko, it makes sense that Yzerman would be unwilling to write off the move as an abject failure, at least publicly, at this moment in Detroit's offseason process.  With that said, there is also some substance behind Yzerman's assertions that Tarasenko wasn't as disastrous as it might appear.

Per MoneyPuck, Tarasenko's 11 goals came on 15.9 expected goals.  Given that finishing has always been his signature skill, Tarasenko has historically out-performed his xG numbers in actual production.  A season shooting at 10.7% is considerably below his career mark 12.6%, so there is some reason to believe he is due a bit more offense than he came up with in 2024-25.  As for his overall play, to take an empirical estimate, MoneyPuck had the Red Wings at a 48.9% xG share with Tarasenko last season, compared to a 49.3% share without him.  In other words, Detroit's control of play didn't change much (for better or worse) whether he was on the ice or not.  That's not an endorsement, but it does suggest Tarasenko was something better than an unmitigated disaster.

The real question is whether Yzerman's actions this summer match the optimism he expressed about Tarasenko's future.  His deal is scheduled to keep him a Red Wing through next season, but The Russian winger could be bought out this summer, for which Detroit would have to pay $1,583,333 for the 2025-26 and '26-27 seasons against the salary cap.  That would provide a $3,166,667 savings heading into this summer for the '25-26 season (with which the Red Wings could theoretically pursue a more effective version of what they sought in Tarasenko a year ago). 

Yzerman could also explore a trade for Tarasenko, though it's hard to imagine a robust market in place, barring retention.  Either way, Tarasenko's departure could also open up an opportunity for one of Detroit's forward prospects (Carter Mazur, Nate Danielson, and Amadeus Lombardi are the next three in line).

As for the Red Wings as a collective, 2024-25 wasn't good enough from Vladimir Tarasenko.  Steve Yzerman gave him a public endorsement and encouragement heading into the new year.  The question is whether the GM's actions will say the same.

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