By looking at his 2024-25 season, you wouldn't guess that Aaron Ekblad was once the NHL's first overall pick, but there it is on his résumé: 2014, Round 1, Pick 1, to the Florida Panthers. Now, one win away from his third straight Stanley Cup Final and a chance at a second straight championship, Ekblad is also on the brink of playing his way out of Florida's price range and leaving the only NHL franchise he's ever known.
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Ekblad—now 29 years old—is just over a month away from hitting free agency, where AFP Analytics project him to command a seven-year contract worth $7.8 million annually. It's been a turbulent season, featuring two suspensions: first 20 games for PEDs, which stretched into the first round of the playoffs, then two more games once he arrived in the postseason for a round one hit on Brandon Hagel. Yet, as one of the giant of Florida's championship-caliber blue line, a vanguard of the bruising Panthers success, Ekblad is poised to reap the fruit of his labor if and when he hits the UFA marketplace in July.
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Ekblad won't impress you with his offensive profile. His career high in points is 57 (from the '21-22 season), and he's coming off a three-goal, 33-point season in 56 games played. It's Ekblad's work over the last three postseasons that will attract attention in free agency.
Ekblad is a minute-eater: physical, imposing, and defensively reliable. Over those three playoff runs, he's averaged 23:57, 22:33, and now 22:21 for Paul Maurice's team. This year, he's already matched his regular season goal total (three) in the playoffs to go with seven assists for 10 points in a dozen playoff games.
So, could he be a fit in Detroit?
Ekblad brings some of the physicality and championship experience the Red Wings covet. As a right shot, he could be a great veteran partner for one of Simon Edvinsson or Albert Johansson. Ekblad also fits the physical mold of the sort of defenseman GM Steve Yzerman tends to pursue.
At the same time, Ekblad isn't a signing free of risk. As we discussed with his current teammate Sam Bennett, so much of Ekblad's profile screams 'will command a free agency overpay,' and at 29, he's not a bad fit for Detroit's timeline but signing him to a long-term deal (really anything longer than three years) carries a fairly substantial risk, especially considering his rugged style of play.
Ultimately, when I consider Ekblad's case, it seems more like than not he commands too great a salary to really make sense for the Red Wings. While he is a stylistic fit, I don't think he's the right candidate for a free agent splurge this summer.
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