Comparing Stuart Skinner to the past three goalies to win the Calder Memorial Trophy and the last three who were nominated (but didn't win) builds a strong case for Skinner to walk home with the trophy.

Being a goaltender in the NHL has never been an easy feat. You may be covered in padding, but getting hit 30 times a night by careening pucks can eventually wear you down. It can take a few years to really get acclimated to the routine and lifestyle of playing in the toughest league in the world.

To play the most difficult position in hockey and then win the Calder Trophy (as top rookie in the NHL) would be an even greater achievement. Which is why Stuart Skinner should win the 2023 Calder Memorial Trophy.

Skinner's Rookie Year

Skinner had a fantastic rookie season. He gave the Oilers consistent goaltending whenever Jack Campbell struggled. Playing 50 games over the 2022-23 season he collected 29 wins along with a 2.73 goals against average (GAA) a .914 save percentage (SV%) with one shutout. Skinner also had 29 quality starts (QS), a 58% quality start percentage (QS%), and a .924 even strength save percentage (EVSV%).

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QS are games where the goalie had a league average or higher save percentage. QS% are the percentage of games played that the goaltender delivered a QS. Finally, EVSV% is simply the netminder's save percentage while playing 5x5. All of these metrics are meant to isolate (as much as possible) the goaltender's influence on the game.

Last 3 Goalies To Win It

The last three goalies to win the Calder Trophy were Steve Mason, Andrew Raycroft and Evgeni Nabokov. Their respective SV%'s were .916, .926 and .915. Their GAA were 2.29, 2.05, and 2.19. Mason played 61 games, Raycroft played 57 and Nabokov played 66. Skinner's SV% is right in line with two of the three past goalies to win the trophy. His GAA is higher than all three, but there is good reason for that. 

The average goals scored per game per NHL team in 2022-23 was 3.18. The last time it was that high was the 1993-94 season when it was 3.24. Looking at the seasons where Mason, Raycroft and Nabokov won the Calder, this number is lower. In 2008-09 it was 2.91, in 2003-04 it was 2.57 and in 2000-01 it was 2.76. The differences between the average goals scored per team and the individual GAA for each goalie look like this: 0.62 (Mason), 0.52 (Raycroft), 0.57 (Nabokov) and 0.45 (Skinner). 

Conversely, looking at the average goaltender SV% and GAA for all three years gives us further insight. For SV% it was .908 (2008-09), .911 (2003-04), and .903 (2000-01). Raycroft and Nabokov outperformed the league average SV% by at least .012. For this year it was .904, so Skinner is right in the mix with Mason, Raycroft and Nabokov.

The GAA for those Calder Winning seasons were 2.73 (2008-09), 2.46 (2003-04), and 2.65 (2000-01). The difference compared to league average shakes out like this: 0.44 (Mason), 0.41 (Raycroft), 0.46 (Nabokov). This levels the playing field and makes Raycroft's great numbers look more league average than they appeared at first glance. This year the league average GAA was 2.97, a difference of 0.24 less goals allowed than the average NHL goalie.

3 Who Were Nominated and Didn't Win

We can draw more information by also looking at recent Calder Trophy Nominees who were goaltenders that did not win the award. Alex Nedeljovic, Jordan Binnington and Jimmy Howard were all nominated in their Calder eligible years and fell short. Let's take a look at how they performed in those seasons.

Nedeljovic was a finalist in the 2020-21 season with an impressive stat line of 1.90 GAA, .932 SV% and 15 wins in 23 games with the Carolina Hurricanes. Despite extremely impressive rate stats (GAA and SV%) Nedeljovic didn't win the award. It went to Kirill Kaprizov who impressed the league with 51 points in 55 games, as the season was shortened due to COVID-19 related factors.

Binnington was a huge reason the St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup in the 2018-19 season. He put together an impressive 32 game season with 24 wins, a 1.89 GAA and .927 SV%. Similarly to Nedeljovic, he lost the award to a high scoring forward. Elias Pettersson gathered 66 points in 71 NHL games.

Howard played 63 games in the 2009-10 season. He had an impressive 2.26 GAA along with .924 SV% and 37 wins. In the 2009-10 season the league wide goals scored per game for each team was 2.84. That gives Howard a 0.58 less goals allowed than average, right in line with Calder Trophy winners Nabokov and Mason. Howard lost the award to Buffalo Sabres defenceman Tyler Myers. Myers led his team in average time on ice (TOI) for the year with 23:44 while collecting 48 points in 82 games.

Skinner vs. Power and Beniers

Skinner is going up against Owen Power and Matty Beniers. Both of the non-Oiler finalists have good reason to be considered. Power played in 79 games for the Buffalo Sabres with 35 points in 23:48 TOI. He certainly has a strong case with the good point production and the high TOI. He also contributed on the power play and penalty kill with 1:58 & 1:06 TOI respectively.

Beniers had himself a fantastic rookie campaign for the Seattle Kraken. Playing as their first line center he tallied 57 points in 80 games, which is good for a 0.71 points per game pace (p/gp). When Pettersson and Kaprizov won the Calder Trophy they both had a 0.93 p/gp for the season. For that reason, I believe that Beniers is not the frontrunner for the trophy.

This is a two horse race between Skinner and Power. Power had a high TOI for a rookie defenceman and was reasonably productive offensively while not being a liability in his own end. Skinner was consistent in net all year with rate stats that are comparable to the past three goaltenders to win the Trophy. In my mind, Skinner wins this contest by a hair.