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If We Knew Then What We Know Now - Jan. 27 2025 - Vol. 78 Issue 7 - Jason Chen

With the calender flipping to 2025 and the NHL season hitting the halfway mark, it’s time to take stock of the fantasy landscape. What did we get right, and what did we get wrong? Self-reflection is healthy, and no fantasy GM goes through the season without making mistakes. The goal, however, is to make more right calls than wrong ones and to make adjustments rather than stubbornly cling to old narratives. Here are some key stories in fantasy hockey at the midway mark.

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MOST DISAPPOINTING PLAYER

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson was on his way to becoming a top-25 multi-category fantasy star with 191 points, 464 shots, 157 blocks and 199 hits over the past two seasons.

Instead, he’s on pace for his worst statistical season while battling nagging injuries, and a rift with teammate J.T. Miller is threatening to tear apart a once-promising Canucks core. Despite the disappointment, Pettersson, 26, is still brimming with potential. He maintains significant value in dynasty leagues, but this year is a write-off.

MOST DISAPPOINTING GOALIE

Jeremy Swayman’s fantasy value was supposed to increase significantly now that he doesn’t have to share Boston’s net with Linus Ullmark, but, in retrospect, the contract stalemate was the first bad omen. Swayman’s poor October (3-4-1, .884 save percentage, 3.57 goal-against average) and a flawed roster in front of him punished fantasy GMs who drafted him early thinking he’d be a Vezina finalist.

The only move now is to hope he gets back on track next season with a full camp. Ilya Sorokin gets a dishonorable mention, though the Islanders’ ceiling was expected to be lower.

MOST SURPRISING PLAYER

What a whirlwind for Carolina’s Martin Necas, going from trade bait to top 15 in league scoring. On average, three other Hurricanes forwards (Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis) were drafted higher in standard fantasy leagues.

The departures of Jake Guentzel and Teuvo Teravainen, which most believed would weaken the roster, instead paved the way for Necas to get more minutes on the Hurricanes’ power play, which ranked in the top 10 in goals scored.

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MOST SURPRISING GOALIE

No one would’ve guessed Kevin Lankinen, whom the Canucks signed after training camp had opened, would be a top-five goaltender through the season’s first two months.

Even fantasy GMs who took a late-round chance on Lankinen couldn’t have guessed the 29-year-old backup would set the NHL record for consecutive road wins to start the season (10). With Thatcher Demko’s health an ongoing concern, the Canucks won’t hesitate to go back to Lankinen, giving him plenty of fantasy value for the rest of the season.

PLAYER BEATING FATHER TIME

With declining goal totals for three consecutive seasons heading into 2024-25, Alex Ovechkin was no longer considered an elite fantasy player, and there was some question whether he could surpass Gretzky’s all-time goals record.

Instead, the 39-year-old is scoring at a 60-goal pace, rewarding fantasy GMs who believed “Russian machine never breaks.” Sidney Crosby and Anze Kopitar get honorable mentions for defying age curves and providing surplus value for fantasy GMs who’ve stayed loyal. For future fantasy drafts, remember that age is sometimes really just a number. Don’t cast away the generational talents just because their hair’s gone grey.

BEST VALUE PICK

Columbus’ Zach Werenski was ranked just outside the top 20 among defensemen going into the season. Now, it would be a travesty if he wasn’t part of the Norris Trophy conversation. He’s on pace for 90-plus points along with Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes.

There’s been only one other season (1990-91 with Ray Bourque, Paul Coffey and Al MacInnis) where a trio of D-men have hit that milestone. Werenski is also on pace to be just the third defenseman in the cap era with at least 300 shots in a season, joining Brent Burns and Dustin Byfuglien.

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BEST BANGER

In hitting leagues, where a gritty checking player can be just as valuable as a top-six scorer, Vancouver’s Kiefer Sherwood is an MVP candidate. Averaging nearly six hits per game, he’s on pace to shatter the current record of 383 hits in a season, set by Jeremy Lauzon last year, by more than 100 hits. Sherwood and the Rangers’ Will Cuylle are on pace to score 20 goals and amass 300 hits.

They could become just the third and fourth players to reach the 20-300 milestone in the cap era, following Brady Tkachuk and Tanner Jeannot. Sherwood is a unicorn in banger leagues and must be rostered for the rest of the season.

BEST WAIVER-WIRE ADDITION

The Blue Jackets collectively sweep this category with an offense that improved from 25th last season to the top 10 this season. Sean Monahan is scoring at a point-per-game pace – something he hadn’t done since finishing 23rd in league scoring in 2018-19. Kirill Marchenko is in the midst of a breakout season and could become the first player in team history to score at least 30 goals and 80 points.

Both players went undrafted in most standard leagues. Mackenzie Blackwood gets an honorable mention after getting traded to the Avalanche, as does Wild center Marco Rossi, who’s on pace to be the eighth player in team history to score 70 points. Fantasy GMs can either sell high on these players or roster them for the remainder of the season. Either way, they’ve already provided more value than anyone expected.

BEST ROOKIE

Fantasy GMs, especially in dynasty leagues, always look for the next phenom to anchor their teams. San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini rightfully drew the most attention, but factoring in their fantasy value relative to their position, Lane Hutson has been more valuable.

The young Habs defenseman shoots the puck infrequently, but he’s been piling up points, ranking in the top 10 in scoring and power-play points among all blueliners. In a season or two, he’ll join the ranks of the elite tier of NHL defensemen.

WORST ROOKIE

Sometimes, we just get caught up in all the hype. There were enough holes in the Ducks’ lineup for Cutter Gauthier to carve out a top-six role, but instead, the No. 5 overall pick in 2022 has struggled to score and earn his minutes. Logan Stankoven has also failed to live up to the hype, with only four goals through the first half of the season despite playing a combined 43 regular-season and playoff games last year.

Stankoven fell just under the league’s threshold of 25 games to still be considered a rookie, but the extra experience hasn’t given him a leg up on the competition. Neither Gauthier nor Stankoven has provided much fantasy value this season, but, since most star players aren’t made overnight, they’re still worth keeping an eye on.

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