Busts:
Frank Vatrano, LW, Anaheim: Vatrano exploded for 60 points in 2023-24 before returning to earth last season. His 45 points in 2024-25 were his second highest career total despite a 25 percent drop from the prior season. Vatrano signed a three-year, $18 million contract extension with the Ducks in January, but likely will be relegated to the third line, which should impact his production.
Elvis Merzlikins, G, Columbus: This is a gut call. Merzlikins posted a 26-21-5 record, a 3.18 goals-against average and a .892 save percentage last season for the Blue Jackets. On the flip side, Jet Greaves was hot down the stretch, winning five straight to close out the regular season with both of his shutouts for the year. I expect Greaves to end up as the team’s top goalie partway through the season.
Ryan Donato, C/LW/RW, Chicago: Donato doubled his previous career high in points, earning 31 goals and 62 points in 2024-25. He parlayed that explosion into a four-year, $16 million contract to remain with the Blackhawks. Donato benefitted from a 17.0 shooting percentage, more than double his 2023-24 campaign. Look for some level of regression to in-between his 30 points in 2023-24 and 62 last season.
Tom Wilson, RW, Washington: In all the focus on Alex Ovechkin breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record, other fine campaigns in the US Nation’s Capital might have fallen through the cracks. One such season was by Wilson, who put it all together, notching 33 goals and 32 helpers along with 233 hits. He also benefitted from a major uptick in shooting percentage, connecting at a 19.5 percent rate. Wilson could end up on the third line for the Caps, which will also reduce his likely output.
Neal Pionk, D, Winnipeg: Pionk remains a solid defenseman and should be the Jets’ second highest scoring blueliner. Besides the 45 points he scored his final season in Manitoba in 2019-20, Pionk has posted between 32 and 39 points. If you draft him expecting more production, look elsewhere. In addition, his hits fell from 220 to 114, as he played between position hockey, which was good for Winnipeg but bad for fantasy players.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.