2024-25 Preview: Colorado Avalanche COLORADO AVALANCHE 50-25-7, 107 Pts. 3rd Central, 8th Overall 3.68 GF/GP (1st), 3.07 GA/GP (17th), 24.5 PP% (5th), 79.9 PK% (12th) Top scorer: Nathan MacKinnon. 82 GP. 51-89-140, +35, 48 PPP, 405 Shots, 607 Face-off wins, 22:49 TOI/GP 2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds: Opening: +1000 Current: +1100 (as of August 22, 2024) Ticket: 8.9%. Handle: 10.9% (second highest) (as of August 22, 2024) 2023-24 FANTASY RECAP Simply put, Nathan MacKinnon put this team on his back. He was a gem, establishing a new franchise record for points in a single season with 140 points. It was 20 points better than Joe Sakic's 1995-96 campaign, the previous record holder, and MacKinnon's 1.71 P/GP was the fifth-highest in the cap era. Only two players have had seasons with a higher P/GP average: Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid. They're the elite of the elite. MacKinnon was named the winner of both the Hart and Lindsay trophies for his efforts and the Avs' trio of MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar led the way despite absences (of various lengths) from key top-six players including Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen and captain Gabriel Landeskog. MacKinnon was so good he helped rejuvenate the career of former junior teammate Jonathan Drouin, who delivered the goods as a popular sleeper pick. But perhaps the most amazing thing was the Avs' elite players didn't burn out; MacKinnon played all 82 games — the first time he didn't miss any games in three seasons — Rantanen played 80 and Makar tied his career-high with 77. They were consistently good despite significant deployment because the rest of the lineup was so thin. The Avs made necessary in-season changes to their roster, but even with the additions of Casey Mittelstadt and Zach Parise, they continued to lean on their star players. The biggest disappointment, however, was Alexandar Georgiev, who needed the Avs' supreme offense to bail him out. Yes, he led the league with 38 wins, but he also allowed a league-high 183 goals and posted a .897 SP and 3.02 GAA, which ranked 29th and 24th, respectively, out of 34 goalies who played at least 40 games. He did not provide value as one of the top-ranked goalies in fantasy hockey heading into the 2023-24 season, and at times he felt like a complete liability. In his final five regular-season games, Georgiev went 1-3-1 with a .853 SP and 5.21 GAA, an insurmountable blow to managers who needed and expected quality goaltending in the championship week of head-to-head matchups. 2024-25 FANTASY OUTLOOK Expect more of the same. MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar will rank in the top-10 on any fantasy list, with Makar still likely the No. 1 choice among defensemen even though Quinn Hughes took home the Norris last season. But this is still a very top-heavy lineup yet again. They're counting on Drouin to keep playing well, Lehkonen to stay healthy, Mittelstadt to get more comfortable as their No. 2 center and also hope that someone — perhaps rookie Nikolai Kovalenko — can step into the top-six. > "He may not start the season due to offseason shoulder surgery but his > puck-handling skills will only improve with the shoulder fix. He’s got great > vision and speed. He will excel on the top line with MacKinnon and Rantanen > (until Gabriel Landeskog returns) and produce on a solid second line with > Casey Mittelstadt." > > - THN Avalanche [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/colorado-avalanche/] editor > Colleen Flynn [https://x.com/THNFlynn] on Lehkonen's health, who's vital to > the Avs' success: - You have to wonder when the 'Big Three' might run out of steam, though, and that's the biggest risk. The amount of pressure placed on them is immense, and the Avs' reliance on them may force them to return to play earlier than necessary. It's exacerbated by the fact that the Avs will be missing two of their top-six (again): Nichushkin was suspended for six months without pay in May for violating Stage Two of the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program. He can apply for reinstatement once his suspension is finished in mid-November, but it remains to be seen if he still has a future with the Avs. Landeskog is still rehabbing his injury but there's some scuttlebutt he may return to play this season. As of now, there's no return date set for the Avs captain, and it's tough to gauge how he will fare upon his return. Of course, should Landeskog return, it would give the Avs an opportunity to ice a much more balanced offense. By the way, the Avs are an excellent team to mine for players on off-days. They play 44 games on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays, which are typically the days that feature the fewest NHL games. That adds some extra value to MacKinnon and company that won't be reflected on the stats sheet. Nathan MacKinnon [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MDQwNTEwNTY2ODAzMDU2/usatsi_23217284.jpg] Nathan MacKinnon 2024-25 PROJECTED LINEUP (updated Oct. 7, 2024) Even Strength Jonathan Drouin - Nathan MacKinnon - Mikko Rantanen Nikolai Kovalenko - Casey Mittelstadt - Callum Ritchie Miles Wood - Ross Colton - Logan O'Connor Ivan Ivan - Parker Kelly - Joel Kiviranta Devon Toews - Cale Makar Samuel Girard - Josh Manson Calvin de Haan - Oliver Kylington Alexandar Georgiev - Justus Annunen ex: John Ludvig, Sam Malinski LTIR: Gabriel Landeskog (knee), Tucker Poolman (upper body) Injured: Artturi Lehkonen (shoulder surgery, no return date set) Suspension: Valeri Nichushkin (eligible for reinstatement in November) Power Play Drouin - MacKinnon - Rantanen - Mittelstadt - Makar Colton - O'Connor - Kovalenko - Girard - Toews SLEEPER: GABRIEL LANDESKOG, LW We've been teased before — there was talk Landeskog could return for the Avs' playoff run last season — but we might actually see the Avs captain back on the ice this season. He hasn't played a minute since the 2021-22 season and enters the 2024-25 fantasy season ranked 1,081st in Yahoo's pre-season rankings. Only the keenest of fantasy managers will notice him and snatch him up because the upside far outweighs the risk. We know what Landeskog is — a point-per-game player with good shot volume, plenty of hits and surprisingly good in the dot. Any fantasy team would love to have him, even if he may only play 50 games a season. Landeskog is one of the best IR stashes this season given the newfound optimism for his return to the NHL. BREAKOUT: NIKOLAI KOVALENKO, RW Also ranked way down Yahoo's pre-season list is Kovalenko, a 24-year-old drafted by the Avs in the sixth round in 2018 and also the son of Andrei, a former Nordique/Av. Born in Carolina, where Andrei played for parts of two seasons, and raised in Russia, the younger Kovalenko has played six full seasons in the KHL since his draft year, including the past two for for Nizhny Novgorod where he amassed 89 points in 98 games. Kovalenko signed late last season and played six regular-season and playoff games in the AHL, scoring two goals and four points. He's not a green prospect; Kovalenko has plenty of pro experience and he's the type of player the Avs can expect to join the lineup right away with his speed and skill. Oskar Olausson, a 2021 first-round pick who scored 20 points in 39 games in the AHL last season, is Kovalenko's main competition, but Kovalenko has more pro experience and played in all situations in the KHL. Due to varying degrees of success KHL players have had in the NHL in their first seasons, the range of outcomes for Kovalenko will be wide. However, if he wins a top-six spot, he might get surprise everyone. In leagues with 14 teams with roster spots to stash players, Kovalenko may be worth a late-round flier. > "I don’t think he’ll adjust to the NHL quickly enough to earn the Calder but > once he gets comfortable, he will make a significant impact. He’ll have at > least a 30-point rookie season." > > - THN Avalanche [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/colorado-avalanche/] editor > Colleen Flynn [https://x.com/THNFlynn] on Kovalenko's first season in the NHL: - BOUNCE-BACK: ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV, G Georgiev will get a ton of games and there's little doubt about that. He's the preferred option even though I thought Justus Annunen looked pretty good at various points last season. Georgiev can be a cautionary tale for fantasy managers who don't yet subscribe to the zero-G strategy; though he led the league in wins last season, he was below average in everything else. If your league emphasized wins, it was great. If save percentage and GAA were weighed more heavily, then it was constant frustration. I think Georgiev should improve his numbers from last season — any worse and Annunen might actually take over — and once again be among the leaders in wins. Also very worthy of note: This is a contract season for the 28-year-old netminder. BUST: VALERI NICHUSHKIN, LW Nichushkin can apply for reinstatement in November when his six-month suspension has concluded, but are we certain the Avs will welcome him back? For two straight seasons, Nichushkin has put his team in a tough spot. He's a wonderfully gifted power forward — a rarity these days — but he has a long way to go in both battling his off-ice issues and making sure he doesn't lose a step when he returns to the ice. With so much uncertainty surrounding Nichushkin, I'm just not willing to sacrifice a roster spot to wait around and find out. GOALIES Alexandar Georgiev [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MDQwNTgyMjM5MDcwMDUy/usatsi_23217297.jpg] Alexandar Georgiev As noted above, it's Georgiev's net to lose and it's a contract season. Just as how Jared Bednar leans on his 'Big Three,' he's also very reliant on Georgiev, who's now played at least 60 games in two straight seasons, something only two other goalies have done: Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck. I'm not ready to put Georgiev in the same tier based on ability, but given the number of starts Georgiev will receive and the wins he may pile up, he remains a top-10 fantasy goalie. I still think it bears mentioning that Annunen, despite the smaller sample size, was the superior goalie at 5-on-5 based on goals saved above average, per naturalstattrick.com. Fluke or not, Annunen ranked 17th out of 71 goalies in save percentage at 5-on-5, while Georgiev ranked 44th. With the idea that Annunen may supplant Georgiev at some point this season, even just for a few weeks, he might be worth a roster stash. But based on his expected workload, even zero-G enthusiasts may agree that Annunen is simply a streaming option; he'll just be a very, very popular one at that. > "Georgiev will have another heavy-loaded season but Annunen will start more > games than last year. Unless Georgiev is injured, there will be no battle for > the starting spot." > > - THN Avalanche [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/colorado-avalanche/] editor > Colleen Flynn [https://x.com/THNFlynn] on Annunen's potential workload: - JASON’S TOP 5 POINT PROJECTIONS (based on 82 games) Nathan MacKinnon, C - 49-81-130 Mikko Rantanen, RW - 43-54-97 Cale Makar, D - 23-64-87 Casey Mittelstadt, C - 17-37-54 Artturi Lehkonen, LW - 20-32-52 Jonathan Drouin, LW - 17-35-52 YAHOO PRE-SEASON RANKINGS 2. Nathan MacKinnon, C 8. Mikko Rantanen, RW 9. Cale Makar, D 50. Alexandar Georgiev, G 99. Devon Toews, D 111. Artturi Lehkonen, RW 170. Casey Mittelstadt, C 175. Jonathan Drouin, LW 251. Ross Colton, C 307. Valeri Nichushkin, LW 311. Justus Annunen, G 438. Miles Wood, LW 488. Logan O'Connor, C/RW 579. Samuel Girard, D 1022. Nikolai Kovalenko, RW 1081. Gabriel Landeskog, LW Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss! [https://thehockeynews.rtb.io/nhl-fantasy/posts] Remember to bookmark The Hockey News Fantasy [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/fantasy/] site for stats, news, analysis, rankings, projections and more, including the Sleepers and Keepers fantasy hockey podcast [https://open.spotify.com/show/3kvm6m34r0xOEyt0UvPPEY]! Related: thn.com/free [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA3NjkzODE0MTc1OTAxMzM3/subscribe-image-promo.jpg] thn.com/free
