2024-25 Preview: Dallas Stars DALLAS STARS 52-21-9, 113 Pts. 1st Central, 2nd Overall 3.59 GF/GP (3rd), 2.83 GA/GP (8th), 24.2 PP% (6th), 82.0 PK% (8th) Top scorer: Jason Robertson. 82 GP. 29-51-80, 28 PPP, 231 Shots, 18:19 TOI/GP 2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds: Opening: +1000 Current: +1100 (as of August 22, 2024) Ticket: 4.5%. Handle: 3.7% (as of August 22, 2024) 2023-24 FANTASY RECAP With an elite player at every position, there was no shortage of options from the Stars. Though Jason Robertson didn't manage to score 40 goals for the third straight season, he still led the Stars in scoring and garnered votes for the Byng and the Selke for the second straight season. The Stars had a little bit of everything with eight (!) players who scored at least 20 goals, six (!) players who scored at least 60 points and six (!) players who played all 82 games. It also featured breakout seasons from Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley, an excellent season from Matt Duchene after a surprising buyout by the Preds, and teased an even brighter future with late-season call-ups Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque. The only player who was disappointing, relative to his fantasy draft value, was Jake Oettinger, who admitted his play was subpar. Despite a reduced workload, Oettinger battled injury and inconsistency all season and finished with a .905 SP and 2.72 GAA; both numbers were career worsts after finishing fifth in Vezina voting in the prior season. It didn't tank the Stars (or any fantasy team, for that matter) but it certainly was a bit of a bummer. 2024-25 FANTASY OUTLOOK The Stars will miss Joe Pavelski, who retired over the summer, but they're still in a great position to challenge for the Cup. They still boast three solid lines on offense, Miro Heiskanen will be a workhorse once again with added help from Harley, and Oettinger should bounce back from last season. The Stars have eight (!) players ranked in the top 150 in Yahoo's pre-season rankings. There's a bit of everything. If you want an elite player, Robertson's fantastic. I don't think he's a perennial 100-point scorer or an Art Ross candidate, but he's been very consistent and the LW position can be rather thin on star players. Robertson's worth an early-round pick because he's so safe. Roope Hintz is similarly reliable, but his offensive ceiling is much lower at a much deeper position. Jason Robertson [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MDg2Nzc0ODgwNzczOTg4/usatsi_23437375.jpg] Jason Robertson > "I would say he will stay closer to the 200-shot, 30 goal scorer. When he put > up 40-plus goals and 109 points, the Stars weren't as deep and the line of > him, Hintz and Pavelski were heavily relied on. Last season when the wealth > was more spread out per se, his line was evenly rolled out with the other > three lines. I believe that to be the case going into this upcoming season... > > It's a little deceiving because [Robertson's] TOI is only about 40 seconds > less than the year prior but the deployment has been utilized differently. > However, I will say, if the power-play was struggling, he would be the first > one they should double shift and keep out there with the second unit. But > there is a possibility we might see an uptick in his numbers this season due > to Pavelski retiring." > > - THN Dallas [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/dallas-stars/] editor Taylor Newby > [https://twitter.com/THN_taylor] on whether Robertson is a 300-shot, 40-goal > threat or a 200-shot, 30-goal threat: - If you want upside, it's Johnston, Stankoven and Bourque (and in that order). If you want some veteran upside in the middle rounds, Duchene, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin (please stay healthy) are also great picks. Heiskanen's the hard one to judge; he's far better in real life than in fantasy, and that's because he sacrifices his offense for better defense. It's not inconceivable Harley ends up outscoring Heiskanen, though it's unlikely given Heiskanen will demand most of the minutes on the power play. What worries me a little bit is they're a bit thin on defense, especially after dependable right-handed defensemen Chris Tanev signed with the Leafs. The big bonus with the Stars is also their schedule; they play 12 games on Sunday, third-most in the league behind the Ducks and Rangers. Fantasy managers who roster a number of Stars but need a last-day push to win their h2h matchups do not need to fret if they're behind on Saturday. 2024-25 PROJECTED LINEUP (updated Oct. 6, 2024) Even Strength Jason Robertson - Roope Hintz - Wyatt Johnston Mason Marchment - Matt Duchene - Tyler Seguin Jamie Benn - Mavrik Bourque - Logan Stankoven Evgenii Dadonov - Sam Steel - Colin Blackwell Miro Heiskanen - Matt Dumba Thomas Harley - Ilya Lyubushkin Esa Lindell - Nils Lundkvist Jake Oettinger - Casey DeSmith ex: Oskar Back, Brendan Smith Power Play Robertson - Hintz - Johnston - Benn - Heiskanen Marchment - Duchene - Seguin - Stankoven - Harley SLEEPER: MAVRIK BOURQUE, C It's not like the Stars are going to catch anyone by surprise, so admittedly it was difficult to pick someone. But of the forwards on their current roster, Bourque draws the least amount of attention, and he ranks 927th in Yahoo's pre-season rankings. The Stars stayed away from a relatively bare free agent market and clearly felt they can replace Pavelski's production internally, which puts the spotlight on their young players, including Bourque. Bourque was their top scorer in the AHL last season with 77 points in 71 games, and he's proven all he can in the minors. He's ready for the show. I'm not sure I would reach for Bourque, but if you're in the final round the draft and looking for upside, he's a great pick. Just as how Johnston and Stankoven quickly showed how good they can be in the NHL, Bourque has the ability to do the same. BREAKOUT: LOGAN STANKOVEN, C Last year it was Johnston, now it's Stankoven. He scored at an 87-point pace in the AHL last season (72-game schedule) and didn't look out of place at all. Stankoven still qualifies as a rookie, coming one game shy of the 25-game limit to maintain his eligibility (playoff games don't count) and he's a top candidate to win the Calder. With 22 points in 43 NHL games last season (regular season and playoffs), Stankoven was essentially on the same pace as Johnston in his rookie season. The challenge for Stankoven (and Bourque) will be getting minutes; neither are expected to play on the top power play and the Stars can roll three forward lines. Stankoven's underlying stats are very impressive. The sample size is admittedly small, but nobody was better than Stankoven at generating expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (min. 10 GP) during the season, and in the playoffs he trailed only Benn, Johnston and Hintz. He has the potential to get close to 200 shots and he's equally adept at playmaking, scoring as many primary assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 as Robertson and Benn last season. > "[Bourque and Stankoven] played well together in the AHL before Stankoven got > called up. But I believe Stankoven will score more. Bourque is more of the > play-maker and while Stankoven is, too, he just seems to find the back of the > net more due to his play style and gritty game. > > If Bourque can form some chemistry with linemates who have a knack for > scoring, he could easily rack up some points, though. However, it has seemed > his game has taken a little longer to translate at the NHL level, whereas > Stankoven's didn't. Bourque has grown his defensive game, but it's really > going to depend on if he can put it all together at the NHL level this year." > > - THN Dallas [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/dallas-stars/] editor Taylor Newby > [https://twitter.com/THN_taylor] on Bourque vs. Stankoven this season: - Jake Oettinger [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MDg2ODQ4NzAwNTI0MTQ0/usatsi_23389299.jpg] Jake Oettinger BOUNCE-BACK: JAKE OETTINGER, G The path to the top is never a straight line, and it can be especially true at a position that's fraught with variance. The good news is, even at his worst moments, there was zero danger of Oettinger losing the starting job. That the Stars signed Casey DeSmith, who was used sparingly by the Canucks in the playoffs and supplanted by a younger goalie in Arturs Silovs, shows the confidence they have in Oettinger being an elite No. 1. The only question with Oettinger is his workload. Very few goalies in the league — only Juuse Saros, Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevsky come to mind — can reliably start 60 games, and Oettinger might just fall short of that standard. Otherwise, Oettinger is a top-five fantasy goalie. Whether or not fantasy managers draft him that high will depend on their own feelings and strategies about drafting goalies early. If you're a big proponent of having an elite goalie to rely upon on your fantasy team, Oettinger is a great choice. > "Oettinger was very open about not being happy with his play at times last > season and statistically speaking, it was his worst season yet even though he > only got two less wins than the season prior. He has also talked about > fighting off injuries and having a surgery that kind of disrupted his off > season rest... > > ... It was apparent in the 2022-23 season that 62 games plus a grueling > playoff run was too much for him. Thankfully last season they were able to get > him down to 54, but that included an injury where he missed quite some time. I > believe the high 50s is probably where he will land this upcoming season. I > think where the team is at in the standings about how well DeSmith can slot in > as a reliable backup could definitely affect whether he plays more or not. But > I believe the coaching staff would really like to avoid overextending his body > throughout a long season." > > - THN Dallas [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/dallas-stars/] editor Taylor Newby > [https://twitter.com/THN_taylor] on Oettinger's outlook and workload for the > 2024-25 season: - BUST: NILS LUNDKVIST, D Even though being a right-hand shot opens up a potential top-four spot if Heiskanen play on his strong side, I have trouble seeing Lundkvist scoring enough points to be fantasy-relevant. Heiskanen and Harley will always be ahead of him on the depth chart and dominate the minutes on the power play. Lundkvist's play has improved over the past two seasons after the Rangers gave up on him. But it certainly feels like Lundkvist's leash is very short and as a potential bottom-pairing 'D', Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin are also righties who are more physical, experienced and reliable. Lundkvist's offense has always been his calling card and he possesses a lot of potential, but I just don't see how he gets a chance to succeed with the Stars given their depth. Lundkvist sat as a healthy scratch at times last season. Peter DeBoer says this is part of his development, but the Stars are in win-now mode and may not have the patience to wait for Lundkvist to put it all together. GOALIES Oettinger's the cream of the crop and DeSmith will be a popular streaming option. I don't think DeSmith is as good as Scott Wedgewood, who signed with the Preds, so that would be the only word of caution here. If DeSmith can return to his early Penguins form and Oettinger bounces back, this is a Jennings-worthy tandem. JASON’S TOP 5 POINT PROJECTIONS (based on 82 games) Jason Robertson, LW - 36-49-85 Roope Hintz, C - 32-36-68 Wyatt Johnston, C - 30-37-67 Miro Heiskanen, D - 9-44-53 Matt Duchene, C - 22-30-52 YAHOO PRE-SEASON RANKINGS 31. Jason Robertson, LW 33. Jake Oettinger, G 47. Wyatt Johnston, C/RW 64. Roope Hintz, C 97. Miro Heiskanen, D 108. Jamie Benn, LW 115. Matt Duchene, C/RW 116. Logan Stankoven, C 124. Mason Marchment, LW 203. Thomas Harley, D 205. Tyler Seguin, C/RW 396. Casey DeSmith, G 440. Esa Lindell, D 927. Mavrik Bourque, C Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss! [https://thehockeynews.rtb.io/nhl-fantasy/posts] Remember to bookmark The Hockey News Fantasy [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/fantasy/] site for stats, news, analysis, rankings, projections and more, including the Sleepers and Keepers fantasy hockey podcast [https://open.spotify.com/show/3kvm6m34r0xOEyt0UvPPEY]! Related: Click the image below to receive your free issue of the 2024-25 THN Poolbook. THN.com/free [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA3NjkzODE0MTc1OTAxMzM3/subscribe-image-promo.jpg] THN.com/free
