2024-25 Preview: Montreal Canadiens MONTREAL CANADIENS 30-36-16, 76 Pts. 8th Atlantic, 28th Overall 2.83 GF/GP (26th), 3.43 GA/GP (27th), 17.5 PP% (27th), 76.5 PK% (24th) Top scorer: Nick Suzuki. 82 GP. 33-44-77, 31 PPP, 185 Shots, 689 Face-off wins, 21:16 TOI/GP 2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds: Opening: +15000 Current: +15000 (as of August 22, 2024) Ticket: 0.6%. Handle: 0.4% (as of August 22, 2024) Cole Caufield (22) and Nick Suzuki (14) [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MjE5NDY4NDMyMzIwMzU2/usatsi_19222157.jpg] Cole Caufield (22) and Nick Suzuki (14) 2023-24 FANTASY RECAP I think the biggest surprise was that Nick Suzuki had another level that few had predicted. Despite playing on a losing team, Suzuki netted career highs across the board and finished 13th in Selke voting on a team that allowed the eighth-highest goals per game with a minus-53 goal differential. Now imagine the Habs without Suzuki. On a stronger team, perhaps Suzuki would get a little more recognition for what he did last season, and he certainly provided surplus value for managers who picked him in the middle or lower rounds. Cole Caufield played his first 82-game season, which is really encouraging, but he mustered just 28 goals. He fell well shy of the 40-goal milestone many had expected for him but, hey, Rome was not built in a day. Suzuki and Caufield are the Habs' top options in fantasy, though there certainly are some intriguing choices later in drafts, including linemate Juraj Slafkovsky, who broke out in a big way with 50 points in 82 games after a supremely underwhelming rookie season, and Mike Matheson, who proved his 58-point pace in the previous season was no fluke, scoring 62 points while finishing third in ice time per game among defensemen. There's no mistake that the Habs are still rebuilding, but they've made far more good decisions than bad ones. One of those decisions was Sean Monahan, who resurrected his career with 35 points in 49 games for the Habs, and following a trade to the Jets cemented himself as a quality depth player in fantasy for points, shots and face-off wins. The goaltending was also better than expected and, at times, all three of their goalies were at least worth streaming. The Habs ranked ninth in the league in save percentage at 5-on-5, per naturalstattrick.com, but a poor PK and general inconsistency meant wins were hard to come by. 2024-25 FANTASY OUTLOOK Suzuki should be the first Hab off the board, followed by Caufield, though the latter may be drafted first in leagues that emphasize goals and shots. But while in past seasons the gap between Suzuki and Caufield and the rest of the Habs roster was pretty significant, that gap was closed with Slafkovsky's ascension and the addition of Patrik Laine. Laine will be one of the most intriguing players to watch this season, and he could follow in the same footsteps as Monahan in getting his career back on track with the Habs. Laine's been productive with both the Jets and Jackets, but never seemed to settle in with either team. He was a point-per-game player for the Jackets but injuries and other health issues limited his playing time, including last season where he played only 18 games. He didn't wear out his welcome quite like Pierre-Luc Dubois — who coincidentally played for both the Jets and Jackets and, at one point, strongly hinted he wanted to play for the Habs — but you do wonder if Laine can ever settle down and regain his 40-goal form. The other player to watch is Kirby Dach, who was limited to just two games before suffering a season-ending injury. He notched two assists in the season opener but lasted just four shifts in his second game, robbing Dach and the Habs of a promising season. Dach, who's still in the early stages of his career at 23 years old, has shown definitive signs that he can be a very good top-six playmaker. Alex Newhook rounds out their top six and he, too, saw limited action due to injury. With the requisite ice time that he couldn't get with the veteran-laden, win-now Avs, Newhook was given the opportunity to develop at his own pace rather than being rushed and put in a role he wasn't ready for. He set career highs in nearly all categories, and if Newhook, Dach and Laine can deliver on their untapped potential, Newhook may set career highs yet again. On defense, Matheson will have the most value as their go-to player, who's the epitome of a player more highly regarded in fantasy than in real life because of the outsized role he plays on the Habs. He's expected to be a workhorse again, and he'll have immense fantasy value as long as he can fend off Lane Hutson on the power play. Even since Matheson joined the Habs, he's increased everything from his shooting rate to his blocked shots rate to overall minutes played. With Jake Allen gone, also look for Samuel Montembeault to become the undisputed starter. His career trajectory and fantasy value will be interesting to watch; he's shown good ability but it hasn't translated to wins just yet. Montembeault will have a far bigger workload than he's ever received, and he could be worth rostering for a full season rather than being used primarily as a streamer. 2024-25 PROJECTED LINEUP (update Oct. 7, 2024) Even Strength Juraj Slafkovsky - Nick Suzuki - Cole Caufield Alex Newhook - Kirby Dach - Emil Heineman Michael Pezzetta - Christian Dvorak - Brendan Gallagher Josh Anderson - Jake Evans - Joel Armia Kaiden Guhle - Mike Matheson Lane Hutson - David Savard Arber Xhekaj - Justin Barron Samuel Montembeault - Cayden Primeau ex: Oliver Kapanen, Alex Barre-Boulet, Jayden Struble Injured: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (surgery for broken leg on July 25, four months), Patrik Laine (left knee sprain on Sept. 28, 2-3 months) Power Play Slafkovsky - Suzuki - Caufield - Anderson - Matheson Gallagher - Newhook - Dach - Xhekaj - Hutson SLEEPER: ALEX NEWHOOK, C It's a little insulting I had to scroll to No. 531 to find Newhook's name on Yahoo's pre-season list. Newhook is slated to center the second line, and along with the returning Dach, now has a premier sniper on Laine potentially on his line. Newhook's talent was always evident; the Avs just couldn't wait for him to develop into a No. 2 center behind Nathan MacKinnon during their Cup window, and opted for someone more established instead. Newhook scored at a 50-point pace last season despite not shooting the puck a lot and averaging 17 minutes per game. The Habs are on an upward trajectory, and even if Newhook's 17.6 shooting percentage regresses, I still think he can break out in a big way. BREAKOUT: COLE CAUFIELD, LW I think Caufield easily scores 30 goals this season. Never mind there are more mouths to feed with Laine joining the fray; Caufield should've scored at least 30 last season had his shooting percentage not dipped to fourth-line levels. Even shooting at a modest 10 percent should've yielded 31 goals. If anything, having two balanced scoring lines rather than being forced to lean on Suzuki-Caufield all the time might open up better matchups for them. Caufield's attached to Suzuki's hip, and there is perhaps no better coach than Martin St-Louis to show how a smaller player can dominate the NHL. Caufield ranked 14th in individual expected goals at 5-on-5 last season, per naturalstattrick.com, and nearly everyone else ahead of him scored more goals. Kirby Dach [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MjI0ODg3MDcwMzY5NjM2/usatsi_20286762.jpg] Kirby Dach BOUNCE-BACK: KIRBY DACH, C That Dach is ranked 292nd in Yahoo's pre-season rankings despite playing just two games illustrates his reputation and the luster of lottery draft picks. Playing on a line with Newhook, the possession metrics were through the roof, though keep in mind the sample size was tiny. They dominated their opponents in shot attempts by a near 2:1 margin, and Dach was particularly effective. He's found new life with the Habs after getting discarded by the Blackhawks and at 23 years old still has plenty of room to improve. With the possibility of getting some time on PP1, Dach could be a valuable depth player in deeper standard leagues for managers looking for assists and points. Kirby Dach with and without Alex Newhook at 5-on-5, 2023-24 [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MjI0MjYwODEwNDUwNTQ0/capture.jpg] Kirby Dach with and without Alex Newhook at 5-on-5, 2023-24 BOUNCE-BACK NO. 2: PATRIK LAINE, LW When it comes to Laine, it's big risk and big reward. At his best, Laine is a 40-goal, point-per-game threat. But two things need to happen for that to become reality: lots of playing time, including PP1, and playing 82 games. There's still so much uncertainty with Laine; he's playing in a pressure-packed environment after being cleared by the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program just two months ago, and it remains to be seen how the Habs will utilize him. But it's a good bet that he's going to play more games than he did last season, and he'll have better complementary talent to play with. Newhook and Dach, who are both playmakers first and shooters second, will provide Laine with every opportunity to shoot the puck. > "There's a lot of unknowns here, while Laine seems destined to the second line > alongside Kirby Dach, both players have had injury issues in the past and even > if a chemistry is established between the two, how long will they be able to > benefit from it? I'd say 30 goals from Laine, but would be happy to be proven > wrong and would add a caution tag on his name because of the above mention > injury issues to both guys..." > > - THN Montreal [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/] editor > Karine Hains [https://x.com/karinehains?lang=en] - BUST: LANE HUTSON, D Make no mistake, Hutson is one of the most promising prospects the Habs have had coming down the pipeline. He showed well in the two games he played after turning pro following a standout two-year collegiate career with Boston U, and there's no doubt he's the future PP1 QB. But that day is unlikely to come in 2024-25. That PP1 QB spot still belongs to Matheson, who has one year remaining on his contract. In keeper leagues, Hutson will have immense value, but in redraft leagues, fantasy managers have to resist the temptation. Many highly-touted offensive defensemen have come into the league with huge expectations, but their lack of experience and shortcomings in 5-on-5 play often force coaches to limit their ice time. > "While Kent Hughes has been clear they do not want to hide Hutson and turn him > into a power play specialist by only playing him on the man advantage, he will > be getting PP time, but the Canadiens won't throw him into the deep end right > away. This is not the HuGo [Hughes and GM Jeff Gorton] way. Matheson is there > to be Hutson's mentor and it would be unfair to the young guy to put too much > pressure on him too soon." > > - THN Montreal [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/] editor > Karine Hains [https://x.com/karinehains?lang=en] - GOALIES Montembeault is the incumbent and will likely get most of the starts, and he's deserving, too, with the way he played last season. By sheer volume, Montembeault will have some fantasy value. But if he's consistently good, he might be worth rostering all season. The Habs have a ton of potential and could easily be better than anyone expects. The same goes for Primeau, though to a lesser degree. At times, he was an excellent streaming option last season, and it will likely be more of the same this season. There's no real value in rostering both goalies, however, unless your league is short on goalies on the waiver wire. > "Samuel Montembeault is about to start his first season as the bona fide > number one and should no doubt get the lion's share of the work. I'd say a > 50-32 split in favour of Montembeault wouldn't surprise me. Unless, of course, > Cayden Primeau starts playing like a superstar > [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/latest-news/canadiens-what-to-expect-from-cayden-primeau]." > > - THN Montreal [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/] editor > Karine Hains [https://x.com/karinehains?lang=en] - JASON’S TOP 5 POINT PROJECTIONS Nick Suzuki, C - 25-45-70 Cole Caufield, LW/RW - 34-35-69 Patrik Laine, LW - 35-26-61 Juraj Slafkovsky, LW - 28-33-61 Alex Newhook, C - 21-38-59 YAHOO PRE-SEASON RANKINGS 72. Nick Suzuki, C 90. Cole Caufield, LW/RW 103. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW 186. Patrik Laine, LW 197. Mike Matheson, D 292. Kirby Dach, C 321. Cayden Primeau, G 462. Sam Montembeault, G 531. Alex Newhook, C 571. Arber Xhekaj, D 589. Kaiden Guhle, D 634. David Savard, D 920. Lane Hutson, D Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss! [https://thehockeynews.rtb.io/nhl-fantasy/posts] Remember to bookmark The Hockey News Fantasy [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/fantasy/] site for stats, news, analysis, rankings, projections and more, including the Sleepers and Keepers fantasy hockey podcast [https://open.spotify.com/show/3kvm6m34r0xOEyt0UvPPEY]! Related: Click the image below to receive your free issue of the 2024-25 THN Poolbook. THN.com/free [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA3NjkzODE0MTc1OTAxMzM3/subscribe-image-promo.jpg] THN.com/free
