2024-25 Preview: New York Islanders NEW YORK ISLANDERS 37-27-16, 94 Pts. 3rd Metro, 15th Overall 2.99 GF/GP (22nd), 3.15 GA/GP (18th), 20.4 PP% (19th), 71.5 PK% (32nd) Top scorer: Mathew Barzal. 80 GP. 23-57-80, 25 PPP, 240 Shots, 20:08 TOI/GP 2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds: Opening: +4000 Current: +4500 (as of August 22, 2024) Ticket: 1.1%. Handle: 0.3% (as of August 22, 2024) 2023-24 FANTASY RECAP It was the season of Mathew Barzal and Noah Dobson. After the Isles acquired Bo Horvat late in the 2022-23 season, Horvat and Barzal combined to form one of the best duos in the league. Astute fantasy managers would've noticed this; even though Barzal played just 13 games following the trade for Horvat on Jan. 30, Horvat scored points in two of Barzal's five even-strength points during that span, and in the playoffs assisted on one of two Barzal's even-strength goals. According to naturalstattrick.com, the duo generated a 56.39 xGF% at 5-on-5. They continued to build that chemistry through 2023-24 with Barzal returning back to point-per-game status for the first time since his rookie season, while both Horvat and Brock Nelson notched their third-straight 30-goal seasons. Barzal, in particular, was a great value pick and exceeded expectations when it looked like he may match the peaks of his rookie season. Dobson was also fantastic and broke out in a big way with 70 points, including 24 on the power play, which ranked seventh and 10th, respectively, in the league among defensemen despite playing on a team with a mediocre offense. It spoke volumes about Dobson's impact and his potential as a top-pairing defenseman. Kyle Palmieri was perhaps the biggest surprise, scoring 30 goals for the second time in his career. He started slow but finished strong, and by the end of the season had played himself onto some fantasy rosters. There were a few disappointments, including what seems like the beginning of a decline for captain Anders Lee, who had his worst statistical season in eight seasons, but perhaps none more so than Ilya Sorokin. Expected to carry the Isles, Sorokin had a respectable .908 SP but didn't dominate like many thought he would as a Vezina candidate, and later in the season ceded time to Semyon Varlamov. Ryan Pulock (6), Bo Horvat (14) and Mathew Barzal (13) [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MjczNzM0NTM4NzMyNzUw/usatsi_22476398.jpg] Ryan Pulock (6), Bo Horvat (14) and Mathew Barzal (13) 2024-25 FANTASY OUTLOOK The top of the lineup with Horvat, Barzal and Nelson should still be very good. The question is their supporting cast. Anthony Duclair should help with some scoring and speed, but he's a complementary player and quite the step down from the other three. It's just not a very exciting group; expect the Isles to be a low-ceiling offensive team yet again. They're likely hoping one of Simon Holmstrom, a first-round pick from 2019 who showed improvement last season but rarely shoots the puck, Oliver Wahlstrom, another first-round pick who's been extremely underwhelming since being drafted in 2018, and 25-year-old undrafted Russian import Maxim Tsyplakov, can provide some offensive punch. It's kind of play-and-pray for the Isles, which doesn't boost a lot of confidence for fantasy managers. Dobson will once again lead the back end, and he should be a fine top-10 defenseman. Based on positional value, I think Dobson should be the first Islander off the board. I'm a little intrigued by Ryan Pulock, who was beset by injuries last season, and along with Adam Pelech formed one of the most highly-regarded shutdown pairs just a few seasons ago. Pulock can be excellent in banger leagues and in the past had 40-point upside. It sounds strange when you have a Vezina-caliber starter and a former Vezina finalist in net, but goaltending is where fantasy managers might find the biggest conundrum. Given Sorokin had such a relatively poor 2023-24 season, his fantasy value has certainly dropped. It's also a little more scary thinking Sorokin may be an injury risk after the Isles announced he had suffered an injury while training over the summer, though he's not expected to miss any time. But, will it matter? Patrick Roy had so confidently leaned on Varlamov down the stretch last season — Varlamov was Roy's starter with the Avs — that it's worth wondering if Sorokin will be the workhorse we expect. Over the past three seasons, Sorokin ranks fifth with 167 appearances. 2024-25 PROJECTED LINEUP (updated Oct. 4, 2024) Even Strength Anthony Duclair - Bo Horvat - Mathew Barzal Maxim Tsyplakov - Brock Nelson - Kyle Palmieri Anders Lee - Jean-Gabriel Pageau - Pierre Engvall Kyle MacLean - Casey Cizikas - Oliver Wahlstrom Alexander Romanov - Noah Dobson Adam Pelech - Ryan Pulock Mike Reilly - Scott Mayfield Ilya Sorokin - Semyon Varlamov ex: Simon Holmstrom, Hudson Fasching, Samuel Bolduc Power Play Nelson - Horvat - Barzal - Duclair - Dobson Lee - Pageau - Palmieri - Tsyplakov - Pulock Noah Dobson [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MjkzMTMzNTYzODMxNTAy/usatsi_23128259.jpg] Noah Dobson SLEEPER: NOAH DOBSON, D Quite frankly, being ranked 12th among defensemen in Yahoo's pre-season rankings feels far too low for Dobson. Others may be playing on better teams, but based on individual upside, Dobson should rank among the elite. A point-per-game season isn't out of the question for him, and it's not like he's a power-play specialist, either; his 180 blocks ranked 13th in the league, giving him added value in banger leagues. Playing on the Isles gives him a little less exposure than, say, Adam Fox, but they're not far apart in fantasy value. In some cases, I would have Dobson ranked ahead of Fox, and in a tier just below Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard and Roman Josi. Dobson will surely get drafted in all leagues, but I just think he's slightly undervalued going into the season. BREAKOUT: MAXIM TSYPLAKOV, RW Tsyplakov can be considered a sleeper, too, but those familiar with the KHL may already know him well. The 25-year-old is a seven-year veteran of the top Russian pro league and last season finished second in goals for Spartak Moscow. He's drawn rave reviews at rookie camp, but expectedly so as a much older "rookie" with plenty of pro experience. The Isles are light on top six forwards and that's where Tsyplakov will step in; he's expected to start on the second line with Nelson and Palmieri, and likely see ice time on PP2 as well. The track record for KHL imports can be a little spotty, but it's still widely regarded as one of the top pro leagues in the world. If Tsyplakov adapts quickly and smoothly, he's going to be a dark horse for the Calder and he'll be known league-wide soon enough. If you're looking for a late-round flier, Tsyplakov likely has more top-six upside than the rest of the other available options. BOUNCE-BACK: ANTHONY DUCLAIR, LW Duclair saw his fantasy value bounce after a trade to the Lightning but averaged less than 15 minutes per game. With the Isles, he'll have the opportunity to play much more than that, and perhaps up his point production closer to the 50-60-point range. For a player who doesn't shoot a lot, he's been a pretty good finisher throughout his career, and his speed may be a good match with Barzal. Duclair doesn't offer much asides from points, but he'll be worth streaming at the very least. Duclair's never quite had a chance to skate on the top scoring line asides from early in his career with the Coyotes and the one season with the Sens. BUST: OLIVER WAHLSTROM, RW I'm not sure we'll see many surprises with the Isles, except maybe in net where I can see a wider range of outcomes (more on that below). With a $1-million cap hit on his second straight one-year contract (both contracts had values equivalent to his qualifying offer), it's a make-or-break season for Wahlstrom, who has yet to live up to the billing as a first-round pick. He was a standout goal scorer as a teenager and turned pro (perhaps prematurely) after one season at Boston College, and since then has scored just 34 goals in 193 career NHL games. The underlying stats also don't make Wahlstrom an enticing prospect anymore; his possession metrics at 5-on-5 are weak and his career 9.2 shooting percentage is considered poor to average. He showed some promise with 16 points in 35 games last season, but that was with hilariously extreme deployment, with 89 percent of his shifts after a whistle starting in the offensive zone. Part of me thinks the Isles were showcasing Wahlstrom, but whatever the case, the fight for top-six minutes got even tougher with the signing of Tsyplakov. To date, Wahlstrom has never averaged more than 12 minutes a game in any season. Part of Wahlstrom's struggles has to do with an ACL injury he suffered late in the 2022-23 season, but he also sat as a healthy scratch at certain points in 2023-24. Fantasy managers can get easily enticed by potential — myself included — but Wahlstrom faces such a steep uphill climb that it's better to look elsewhere. Even if Wahlstrom still has untapped potential, I'm not sure we'll ever see him realize it in an Isles uniform. Ilya Sorokin [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MjkzMTU3MTg2MTUxNjMw/usatsi_23051347.jpg] Ilya Sorokin GOALIES It's so hard to project goalies, I'd rather stay away from this situation altogether. There's no doubt Sorokin has the ability to be the best goalie in the league. But a lot more goes into being a top-tier fantasy option than just being good. The Isles are not expected to win a lot of games (in my opinion, at least) and perhaps the more important consideration in fantasy is the prospect of Varlamov taking a big chunk of the starts. Last season, Varlamov was a big reason why the Isles made the playoffs, and he rightfully earned the start in Game 1. Remember, too, that when Roy won the Jack Adams with the Avs in 2014, Varlamov finished second in Vezina voting and there might be a some loyalty there. He can definitely still play, and if he replicates what he did last season, he will be a continuous threat to steal Sorokin's playing time. Sorokin's massive 8-year, $66-million contract kicks in this season, which is a good reason to think the Isles will lean on him the most, but I'm not sure his contract will be a consideration when Roy picks his starter. He will go with whomever he thinks is best, and if Sorokin is as shaky as he was last season, this spells headaches for fantasy managers. Of course, the best strategy is to roster both goalies to capture all the upside and limit the downside should you only roster Sorokin. But the Isles feel like a low-upside option that I'd rather go with a less-heralded goalie on a better team, such as Jacob Markstrom on the Devils. Zero-G enthusiasts will surely eschew using a high pick on Sorokin and hope that someone else, such as Darcy Kuemper on the Kings, can provide similar value but at a much lower cost in draft capital. Another key question: Can a healthy 'D' corps also improve the league's worst PK? Doing so will provide both Sorokin and Varlamov a big boost when it comes to their numbers. Update: Patrick Roy casually mentioned that Sorokin had off-season back surgery — not panicking, but also not good. Back surgery kept Andrei Vasilevskiy out of action for the first month-and-half last season, though Sorokin is not expected to miss any time. This just throws more smoke to the idea of a Sorokin-Varlamov split, as the Isles will also want to keep Sorokin's long-term health in mind as they enter an eight-year contract. I still like Varlamov as a late-round or zero-G option. JASON’S TOP 5 POINT PROJECTIONS (based on 82 games) Mathew Barzal, RW - 20-55-75 Brock Nelson, C - 35-33-68 Noah Dobson, D - 11-54-65 Bo Horvat, C - 30-35-65 Anthony Duclair, LW - 26-26-52 YAHOO PRE-SEASON RANKINGS 56. Mathew Barzal, C/RW 80. Brock Nelson, C 87. Bo Horvat, C 91. Noah Dobson, D 177. Anthony Duclair, LW 194. Anders Lee, LW 258. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C 311. Kyle Palmieri, RW 338. Alexander Romanov, D 468. Ryan Pulock, D 691. Scott Mayfield, D 734. Oliver Wahlstrom, RW 1154. Maxim Tsyplakov, RW Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss! [https://thehockeynews.rtb.io/nhl-fantasy/posts] Remember to bookmark The Hockey News Fantasy [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/fantasy/] site for stats, news, analysis, rankings, projections and more, including the Sleepers and Keepers fantasy hockey podcast [https://open.spotify.com/show/3kvm6m34r0xOEyt0UvPPEY]! Related: Click the image below to receive your free issue of the 2024-25 THN Poolbook. Image [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MjYwNjQwNzk0MDYwNjQ0/subscribe2024-front-banner.jpg]
