2024-25 Preview: Utah Hockey Club UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 36-41-5, 77 Pts. 7th Central, 27th Overall 3.10 GF/GP (17th), 3.34 GA/GP (25th), 22.0 PP% (15th), 76.3 PK% (25th) Top scorer: Clayton Keller. 78 GP. 33-43-76, 30 PPP, 228 Shots, 19:15 TOI/GP 2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds: Opening: +10000 Current: +6000 (as of August 22, 2024) Ticket: 2.7%. Handle: 1.3% (as of August 22, 2024) 2023-24 FANTASY RECAP If only the franchise had a little more stability, right? I can't help but think that the Coyotes' rocky ownership(s) held them back; had they been more willing to spend, I'm pretty sure Clayton Keller would've scored close to 100 points by now. He's by far their best player and their best fantasy option, though it was pretty surprising to also see them boast six (!) 20-goal scorers. The good thing about the Coyotes was that they offered a lot of quality depth options, but the bad part is they were often better as streamers or for certain categories. Matias Maccelli was a little less impressive in his sophomore season, but shot the puck more and still racked up the assists. Nick Bjugstad and Lawson Crouse were good options if you needed some hits with some goal-scoring pop, and on some days Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther were good for some offensive upside. There were no big surprises save for Michael Carcone, a late bloomer and long-time minor leaguer who scored 21 goals and eight assists in a Cy Young-like season. I thought Sean Durzi looked just as good as he did in 2022-23, if not slightly better, and with 16 power-play points really offered some under-the-radar offense from the blue line in deeper leagues. The goaltending was a mixed bag, but Connor Ingram really put in some fine performances. He was a quality streamer with the potential for the occasional brilliant 50-plus save performance, including a red-hot 7-2-0 November, and played well enough to unseat Karel Vejmelka as the potential starter going forward. Clayton Keller (9), Nick Schmaltz (8) and Sean Durzi (50) [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5NTUwMzI4ODIxOTgyODcw/usatsi_22192979.jpg] Clayton Keller (9), Nick Schmaltz (8) and Sean Durzi (50) 2024-25 FANTASY OUTLOOK The Coyotes' Utah's (wow, that'll take getting used to) big bet is on youth, so we'll just have to be patient. Keller is a point-per-game threat which ensures he'll get drafted in the early rounds, but what we're looking for is upside from Cooley and Guenther, both of whom should make significant leaps in their development. Realistically, I don't think Utah really becomes a playoff contender for at least another two seasons, which makes Cooley and Guenther much more valuable in keeper leagues than redraft leagues. I think the biggest question right now is who will serve as the No. 1 center. Barrett Hayton is only 24 years old and I saw a lot of good things in his breakout 2022-23 campaign (19 goals, 43 points), but he was beset by injuries and appeared in just 33 games. Upon his return, he was used all over the lineup. While Cooley is their center with the highest upside, he's not quite ready for the No. 1 job. If Hayton continues to play with Keller, I sense there's some sleeper value here, especially if he also sees time on PP1. The Coyotes split up their units last season, and they could do so again with Keller and Hayton on one unit and Cooley and Guenther headlining the other. Along with Hayton and Keller will be Nick Schmaltz, but I say forget about him. He was a cute under-the-radar play for point-per-game production, but with increased competition for minutes and a scoring dip that felt like a long time coming, I'd rather bet on a younger player with more upside, even if he's a little more risky. The biggest change this season was the addition of Mikhail Sergachev, who presumably steps in as their No. 1 defenseman and top power play quarterback. I'm pretty sure the former will come to fruition, but I'm not sold on the second; I think Durzi will still demand a lot of playing time, and with Sergachev being a lefty and Durzi being a righty, there are pros and cons to playing each of them on PP1 or even together. I asked THN Utah [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/utah/] editor Alex Tumalip who might quarterback their power play: > "I give the edge to Sergachev, mainly because of his experience... Sergachev > has 84 career power-play points, including a career-high 27 in 2022-23 with > the Tampa Bay Lightning, and I expect him to be the only blue-liner surrounded > by four prolific forwards by the names of Keller, Hayton, Crouse, and > Schmaltz. It won't be a complete 100% edge to Sergachev; I would expect Durzi > to rotate into that QB role in certain situations if a right-handed shot is > needed." - 2024-25 PROJECTED LINEUP (updated Oct. 5, 2024) Even Strength Clayton Keller - Barrett Hayton - Nick Schmaltz Lawson Crouse - Logan Cooley - Dylan Guenther Mattias Maccelli - Jack McBain - Josh Doan Alex Kerfoot - Kevin Stenlund - Michael Carcone Mikhail Sergachev - Sean Durzi Vladislav Kolyachonok - Ian Cole Juuso Valimaki - Michael Kesselring Connor Ingram - Karel Vejmelka ex: Milos Kelemen, Liam O'Brien, Robert Bortuzzo Injured: Nick Bjugstad (upper body, week-to-week as of Sept. 19), John Marino (upper body, no return date set) Power Play Keller - Cooley - Schmaltz - Guenther - Sergachev Crouse - Hayton - Maccelli - Kerfoot - Durzi SLEEPER: MATIAS MACCELLI, LW I thought it was very encouraging Maccelli more than doubled his shot volume without sacrificing a lot of his assists. I think he can be a very good second-line playmaker, and depending on his linemates, I can see 60-plus point potential. That's not particularly noteworthy these days, but I do find assists a very unpredictable category, so the fact that Maccelli has already racked up 38 and 40 assists through his first two seasons is really impressive. Maccelli can be found very late in rounds and he'll provide surplus value in leagues that emphasize points. Dylan Guenther [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5NTUwMzU5OTYwNDk1NzY2/usatsi_22729842.jpg] Dylan Guenther BREAKOUT: DYLAN GUENTHER, RW AND LOGAN COOLEY, C I've put Guenther and Cooley together because they represent the next wave of talent and I think there's a chance both of them break out in 2024-25. (What a boon that would be for Utah). The key for both players will be ice time; Utah's not deep down the middle and it's unknown if Hayton will be 1C, which means Cooley will be 2C at worst, but there's a lot of competition on the wings for Guenther, though he seems pretty locked in for a top-six role and PP1. Obviously, both players will have immense value in keeper leagues. Guenther, in particular, might be an elite goal-scoring threat. He played at a 32-goal, 220-shot pace last season averaging 16 minutes per game, and I think he's also got an edge to his game so there's some marginal value in both blocks and hits. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Guenther ends up leading the Coyotes in goals. BOUNCE-BACK: BARRETT HAYTON, C Hayton had a setback due to injury but I think he's really on the cusp of showing he can be a reliable top-six center. I think he lacks the offense to be a No. 1, but if he continues to skate with Keller and Schmaltz, scoring 60 points shouldn't be a huge problem. Hayton's face-off abilities have also improved, so even though he doesn't shoo the puck much, block many shots or hit many players, I think he's got upside in points and face-off wins. As far as play driving goes, it's worth noting that Hayton's 54.20 CF% at 5-on-5 (min. 10 GP) was, by far, the best on the Coyotes, per naturalstattrick.com. For a team that got regularly outshot, having Hayton in the lineup made a huge difference. He doesn't have Cooley's playmaking ability or Nick Bjugstad's size or Jack McBain's physicality, but he's reliable and that's what Utah needs down the middle. Hayton's going to get his minutes. BUST: JOSH DOAN, LW/RW Doan was a great story last season, scoring nine points in 11 games and following in the footsteps of his father and Coyotes legend, Shane Doan. Ranked 193rd in Yahoo's list and mentioned in many pre-season lists, I can't help but zig when everyone's zagging. I see a useful winger who can play all sorts of roles, but I also note his 21.7 shooting percentage, his 12:19 TOI/GP and the heavy competition on the Coyotes' wings. I can't see Doan cracking the top six and he feels more like a bottom-six (perhaps even fourth line) winger. I'm not sure he'll get the chances to produce like he did last season, and from a fantasy standpoint I'd rather bet on Maccelli (ranked 230th) or Guenther (204th) than Doan. GOALIES I think Ingram has the inside track on the starting job and I'm curious to see where this goes. There's a lot of uncertainty in net, but I think there's also no question that both Ingram and Vejmelka have the ability to turn in some superhuman performances. In the right matchup, or during a hot streak, both will have lots of streaming value. Ingram saved nearly seven goals above average, per naturalstattrick.com, with a .919 SP at 5-on-5 that ranked 20th among goalies who played at least 1,000 minutes. Ingram was a highly-touted goalie who had a rough start early in his career, suffering from obsessive-compulsive disorder, depression and alcoholism. Drafted 88th overall in 2016, he's one of just four goalies who've played at least 10 games in the NHL from his draft class (18 goalies were drafted), and didn't make his NHL debut until five years after his draft year. The Lightning and Preds both moved on from him, but last season's Masterton winner looks like his career is just taking off. JASON'S TOP 5 POINT PROJECTIONS (based on 82 games) Clayton Keller, LW - 33-46-79 Nick Schmaltz, RW - 22-39-61 Dylan Guenther, RW - 30-30-60 Mikhail Sergachev, D - 10-43-53 Matias Maccelli, LW - 16-35-51 YAHOO PRE-SEASON RANKINGS 67. Mikhail Sergachev, D 74. Clayton Keller, LW/RW 118. Logan Cooley, C 154. Lawson Crouse, LW/RW 165. Connor Ingram, G 169. Nick Schmaltz, C/RW 193. Josh Doan, LW/RW 195. Barrett Hayton, C 204. Dylan Guenther, RW 230. Matias Maccelli, LW 247. Sean Durzi, D 276. Karel Vejmelka, G 313. Nick Bjugstad, C 404. Jack McBain, C 439. Alexander Kerfoot, C/LW 560. Michael Carcone, LW Related: Click the image below to receive your free issue of the 2024-25 THN Poolbook. Image [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA5MjYwNjQwNzk0MDYwNjQ0/subscribe2024-front-banner.jpg]
