44-30-8, 96 points (5th Central, 14th overall) 3.05 GF/GP, 13th; 2.82 GA/GP, 11th 22.1 PP%, 16th; 74.2 PK%, 28th Key losses: C Radek Faksa, RW Zack Bolduc Key additions: C Nick Bjugstad, C/LW Pius Suter, D Logan Mailloux Expected lineup: Pavel Buchnevich – Robert Thomas – Jimmy Snuggerud Dylan Holloway – Brayden Schenn – Jordan Kyrou Jake Neighbours – Pius Suter – Oskar Sundqvist Alexei Toropchenko – Nick Bjugstad – Nathan Walker Cam Fowler – Colton Parayko Philip Broberg – Justin Faulk Tyler Tucker – Logan Mailloux Jordan Binnington – Joel Hofer PP1: Buchnevich – Thomas – Holloway – Snuggerud - Fowler PP2: Neighbours – Schenn – Kyrou – Sundqvist – Faulk 5-on-5: When you get the opportunity to hire a Jack Adams Award winner, you have to do it. Blues GM Doug Armstrong admitted as much. It wasn’t so much an indictment against Drew Bannister, whom Armstrong noted was dealt a tough hand with injuries but made mistakes [https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/42581404/blues-fire-drew-bannister-hire-jim-montgomery-coach] as a rookie NHL head coach, but an appreciation for Jim Montgomery, who has hired less than a week after being dismissed by the Bruins. The results were night and day: The Blues under Drew Bannister were 9-12-1, 30th in goals for per game, 25th in goals against per game, 23rd in percentage share of shot attempts at 5-on-5 and 29th in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The Blues under Jim Montgomery were 35-18-7, fifth in goals for per game, seventh in goals against per game, 21st in percentage share of shot attempts at 5-on-5 and 27th in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Defensively, the Blues still weren’t great, but offense is where the biggest difference was felt. Yes, the Blues got healthy and better shooting luck, but a number of players excelled under Montgomery – Dylan Holloway, most notably – and rather than trying to play perfect defense all the time, the Blues simply turned loose. The lines were consistent, the matchups worked, special teams improved… little things that Montgomery’s experience and style brought that helped turn things around in a big way. The Blues ended the season ranked 10th in goals at 5-on-5, compared to the previous season when they ranked 27th under Craig Berube (13-14-1) and Drew Bannister (30-19-5). This was a pretty balanced lineup, though it’s still powered by a few key players. Robert Thomas, for one, notched his second straight 60-assist, 80-point season, finishing 13th in even-strength points and sixth in even-strength assists. Among the 12 players who finished with 60 assists, only Thomas and David Pastrnak had less than 20 power-play assists. It just shows how effective Thomas can be at even strength, and if the Blues power play improves, his totals will only increase. Thomas’ fantasy stock is held back by a lack of goals, shots and other peripherals, but the elite number of assists keeps him easily in the top 50. Jordan Kyrou doesn’t get enough attention but he’s an underrated 5-on-5 goal scorer. Over the past two seasons, he’s ranked 15th in even-strength goals and 20th in total shots. That’s near-elite production for a player who often falls out of the top 10 rounds. With Holloway, Pavel Buchnevich and Jake Neighbours, the Blues really have some quality depth. The Blues had five 20-goal scorers last season, and could’ve had as many as seven had Brayden Schenn (18 goals) and Zack Bolduc (19 goals, now with the Habs) had gotten a little luckier. The Blues’ affinity for acquiring defensemen in their 30’s on potentially terrifying long-term deals has been a running joke but, in reality, it’s really worked out well for them. Cam Fowler found new life moving on from the Ducks and Colton Parayko is as dependable as they come. With Justin Faulk and Philip Broberg, this is a solid top four and everyone can play in all situations. Power Play: This is where the Blues miss Torey Krug the most. The Blues power play was just fine with Cam Fowler, but it definitely could’ve been better. The one thing about the Blues, though, is that they draw very few penalties. They ranked 29th in power play opportunities and average power play time on ice per game. This is the biggest change – asides from the coaching switch – from the previous season when the Blues ranked 13th in power play opportunities and 12th in average power play time on ice per game. They’ll be fine without a premier power play QB – they’re difficult to find, for starters – but to improve their offensive output it’s vital they draw more penalties. All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.
