Buyer Beware on Caps' Logan Thompson

The Capitals added Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Matt Roy and Jakob Chychrun this summer, and yet I'm still unconvinced they're a playoff team.

They reached the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, edging the Red Wings for the final spot with five more regulation wins. The Caps' minus-37 goal differential was the worst ever for a playoff-bound team, and there was zero surprise when they were swept by Rangers.

In a drastic change from a team that had been known for it's Alex Ovechkin-led offense, Charlie Lindgren was the hero, going 25-16-7 with a .911 SP and 2.67 GAA. Signed as a backup to a three-year deal in 2022, Lindgren usurped Darcy Kuemper (since traded to L.A.) as the starter and held the Caps together despite a thin defense and anemic offensive play.

According to naturalstattrick.com, Lindgren finished 26th out of 98 goalies in goals saved above average despite facing the 14th-most high-danger shots.

But it was also clear Lindgren needed a little help. Though he was excellent at the beginning of the season and in the spring when the Caps made their playoff push, he played poorly in January and February with a combined 5-6-2, .883 SP and 3.51 GAA.

The workload was enormous for someone had just 24 games of experience prior to joining the Caps, and Lindgren finished tied-17th with 48 starts and 18th in total minutes played. There were times where Lindgren looked a little tired, and with the Caps lacking a bona fide starter and the entire league trending towards tandems, Lindgren needed a running mate.

So in steps Thompson, who was acquired from the Knights after he reportedly asked for a trade. Thompson and Lindgren share similar threads; both were undrafted goalies who took long journeys to get where they are, and surprised many people along the way.

Their records over the past two seasons are quite similar — Thompson with 78-46-27 and Lindgren with 74-38-27 — but Thompson holds the statistical edge in both raw save percentage and GAA. Thompson had a better 2022-23 season, but Lindgren was clearly the superior goalie in 2023-24. A luxury that Lindgren didn't have was the kind of goal support Thompson received.

Logan Thompson vs. Charlie Lindgren, 2023-24 NHL EDGE stats

You wonder, though, if this is more a reflection of an elite team versus a playoff contender. The Knights are a much stronger team defensively, even if the possession metrics may state otherwise (both teams were under 50 percent at 5-on-5 in Corsi percentage). The Knights much better at keeping shots to the outside, possess a deeper blueline and do not allow nearly as many high-danger chances as the Caps.

Though Thompson may want a bigger role, Lindgren is the incumbent and he'll be the 1A to start the season. Both goalies are wild cards given their short track records, with Thompson's stats likely getting worse (if only slightly) on a poorer defensive squad and Lindgren's stats potentially seeing the same kind of regression after exceeding expectations.

Based on NHL EDGE's stats, both goalies struggled a little on shots from their blocker side. With the addition of Roy, plus hopefully another healthy season from John Carlson, perhaps that can be mitigated.

Logan Thompson vs. Charlie Lindgren, Save % breakdown 2023-24 NHL EDGE stats

In zero-G options, it's advisable to roster both, and both will likely be available in the late rounds. It's far too risky to target one over the other since they may operate an equal timeshare, and it's also tough to say who will be the 1A option by the end of the season. The Caps will be competitive, so there will be wins, but the goal support may be inconsistent.

Either rostering them or streaming them will require fantasy managers to be careful with their matchups. Thompson's career numbers against Eastern Conference teams (.903 SP, 3.06 GAA) are far worse than against Western Conference teams (.918 SP, 2.46 GAA) while Lindgren has shown to be quite streaky.

For the risk-adverse fantasy manager, it might be best to avoid rostering either of them. Remember, they will face two elite teams constantly (Canes, Rangers), two teams expected to improve (Flyers, Devils) and Sidney Crosby's Pens. In the best-case scenario, the Caps will likely make the playoffs as a lower seed.

Will you be drafting Charlie Lindgren and/or Logan Thompson this season?

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