Feeling Lucky in Vegas? Give Ilya Samsonov a Chance

I must admit, I didn't think the Vegas Golden Knights would move off their Adin Hill-Logan Thompson tandem.

It had worked out pretty well, after all. They ranked 11th in save percentage at 5-on-5, per naturalstattrick.com, and both Hill and Thompson posted records above .500 with similar numbers in both save percentage (.909 vs. 908) and GAA (2.71 vs. 270).

It could've been better, but when you have so much salary locked up with position players — also part of the reason they didn't re-sign playoff MVP Jonathan Marchessault — you're going to be lean in other areas of the roster.

Which brings us to Ilya Samsonov, who was brought in to replace Thompson (traded to D.C. to replace Darcy Kuemper) with the Leafs opting to stick with Joseph Woll and supporting him with Anthony Stolarz, one of the best backups in the league.

Good thing the Knights have Bruce Cassidy behind the bench, who has successfully implemented tandems with both the Bruins and the Knights. His track record speaks for itself; during his five full seasons with the Bruins, they had the lowest GA/GP (2.53) and the third-lowest SA/GP (29.0), and over the past two seasons with the Knights, they had the 10th-lowest GA/GP (2.89) and 13th-lowest SA/GP (30.4).

The numbers with the Knights aren't as impressive partly because their penalty kill is very poor for a very good team, and going from Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman to Hill and Thompson is a irrefutable step down (and they don't have Patrice Bergeron). Coaches can only do so much to mitigate whatever options they have in net.

Remember, Samsonv is just one of 13 goalies to register at least 50 wins over the past two seasons, and only one of three (Samsonov, Ullmark and, shockingly, Vitek Vanecek) to do it with less than 100 starts. Among goalies with at least 50 starts last season, Samsonov had the third-worst save percentage (.890) and 37th in GAA (3.13). With a Yahoo ADP of 76.4, Samsonov delivered with the wins (23-7-8 record) but he delivered terrible value in everything else. This is a classic example of a bad goalie on a good team.

It's not as if it was easy to pick Samsonov's starts, either. He was good (.966 Sv% vs. WPG, .923 Sv% vs. BUF) and horrible (.563 Sv% vs. TB, .786 Sv% vs. CLB) against both good and bad teams.

Wins leaders (min. 50 GP) from 2022-23 to 2023-24 seasons combined

But based on the Knights' excellent defensive depth — Alex Pietrangelo is elite, Noah Hanifin and Shea Theodore are all-star caliber, and they have three excellent third-pairing defensemen — their tough defensive style and Cassidy's coaching, Samsonov's fantasy value is either on the rise or, at the very least, holding steady. He'll get a similar number of starts, plenty of wins and, presumably, a bounce-back after a terrible season.

The Knights weren't nearly as good defensively as they were in previous seasons, but they still graded out better than the Leafs, who allowed more goals, both actual and expected, and had one of the league's worst penalty kills.

Goalies are notoriously tough to gauge, but in an era where roughly 10 teams will be deploying a tandem, the Knights' options are among the best in fantasy. Obviously, the best strategy is to roster both Hill and Samsonov. Hill's the safer pick, but he also has an injury history, which would thrust Samsonov into the spotlight once again.

Samsonov has shown that he can be a good goalie, and the upside is that he can get close to 30 wins with a save percentage and GAA that won't tank your fantasy team. Samsonov's risk-reward profile is pretty good, and as long as you don't reach for him — maybe after 20 other goalies have gone or it's in the last rounds of your draft — he could deliver good value.

Between Woll and Stolarz, and Hill and Samsonov, who would you pick?

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