Lightning Boosts Jake Guentzel to Top 10 Left Wing Status
Guentzel is now among the elite left wingers in fantasy hockey playing with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.
It's not often when your fantasy hockey prospects improve when you move away from Sidney Crosby and Sebastian Aho.
But that's certainly the case with Jake Guentzel, who promptly signed a seven-year deal with the Lightning on June 30 following a trade from the Hurricanes. Guentzel was rumored to have multiple suitors — as he should — but he couldn't have landed in a better spot to boost his fantasy value.
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He's a proven point-per-game player and scored at a 120-point pace (!) in 17 games with the Canes, who would've been a great fit for him as well.
But now Guentzel gets a chance to play opposite Nikita Kucherov, one of the league's best players this past season, and Brayden Point, who's quietly scored 97 (!) goals in the past two seasons, trailing only Auston Matthews (109) and David Pastrnak (108) and one ahead of Connor McDavid.
At even strength, there may be no better line than Guentzel with Point and Kucherov. Last season, with Brandon Hagel on the left wing, the Lightning's top line ranked 16th in xGoals % (min. 200 TOI), according to moneypuck.com, and 15th with 3.32 xGoals per 60 minutes.
Hagel had a very good season and he's proven he can score 25-30 goals with relative ease, but Guentzel's skill set is clearly a level higher. He's a good finisher and a very strong two-way player, finishing with a 57.03 CF% at 5-on-5 splitting time with the Pens and Canes. His possession game will help the Lightning, who were worse than usual in both puck possession and shot generation metrics last season.
What's also interesting is that Guentzel's Individual Points Percentage, a measure of how often Guentzel is involved in scoring plays when he's on the ice, was not significantly higher than his previous seasons, and it's very encouraging that many of his assists were first assists. This suggests that Guentzel wll be able to score at a similar pace, if not better, in the 2024-25 season as he has in past seasons.
If we're ranking the top left wingers coming into the 2024-25 season, Guentzel has clearly vaulted a couple tiers into the top 10. His ADP of 65.2 in Yahoo leagues suggests he was taken around the sixth round in 10-team leagues; among qualified LW, Guentzel was the 22nd player off the board.
The hot take is that Guentzel is the best LW in fantasy hockey right now, but I consider three others in the same tier, if not higher: Jason Robertson, Kirill Kaprizov and Artemi Panarin. What gives Guentzel the edge is Kucherov; none of the other players can claim a potential league MVP as a linemate.
(Kyle Connor would be an interesting debate, but other than providing shots and goals, I find him a frustrating player in fantasy.)
Depending on your league settings (ie. you count hits), we can throw Brady Tkachuk's name in there as well, but the list is really short. Of course, if Draisaitl, Stamkos, Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Pettersson and a host of other elite players gain LW eligibility, Guentzel might get pushed further down the list; but, among pure left wingers, few are better.
I suspect that because Guentzel played just 67 regular season games last season, he'll be ranked lower than he should on pre-draft lists. Don't be afraid to reach for him because he's in such a good situation that he could potentially finish among the league's top scorers.
The danger with the Lightning is that their roster is top heavy, which means Jon Cooper will often juggle his lines or play 11 forwards from time to time. Hagel could still find himself on the top line while Guentzel and Anthony Cirelli anchor the second line, but it makes a lot of sense to stack Guentzel on a high-ceiling offensive line, and a Hagel-Cirelli duo could be a great matchup line for Cooper to deploy.
If you're wondering if this hurts Hagel's fantasy value, I wouldn't fret. There's a chance Hagel remains on the top line. Adding Guentzel makes the team better and Hagel should benefit. It's unlikely Hagel and Guentzel will share the ice together since both play left wing, but this also opens up better matchups for both players.
Who are your top-10 left wingers going into the 2024-25 season? Does Guentzel crack the list?
Last season's top scoring left wingers:
1. Artemi Panarin, NYR - 120 points
2. Kirill Kaprizov, Min - 96 points
3. Filip Forsberg, Nsh - 94 points
4. Jason Robertson, Dal - 80 points
5. Jake Guentzel, Pit/Car - 77 points
6. Clayton Keller, Ari - 76 points
7. Chris Kreider, NYR - 75 points
8. Brandon Hagel, TB - 75 points
9. Brady Tkachuk, Ott - 74 points
10. Kevin Fiala, LA - 73 points
11. Carter Verhaghe, Fla - 72 points
12. Lucas Raymond, Det - 72 points
