Rolling the Dice on Linus Ullmark and the Senators Kudos to the Senators. They realized their mistake quickly and made a swift move to rectify their atrocious goaltending this past season, sending Joonas Korpisalo to the Bruins, along with bottom-six forward Mark Kastelic and the 25th overall pick in the 2024 draft (Dean Letourneau), for 2023 Vezina winner Linus Ullmark. Korpisalo, who landed a five-year, $20-million deal from the Sens last summer following a strong showing with the Kings, won just 21 games in 49 starts appearances and finished with a .890 Sv% and 3.27 GAA. He shouldn't shoulder the entire blame for the Sens' disappointing season, but it was a position the Sens needed to address. Over the past five seasons, the Sens have used 14 different goalies and only one (!) — Anton Forsberg, 105 starts — started over 50 games. Being able to unload Korpisalo's potentially burdensome contract, even if you factor in a big bounce-back year in 2024-25, was already a big win. Acquiring a proven goalie is just the icing on the cake. Ullmark, with a career .918 Sv%, represents a huge upgrade. A sixth-round pick from 2012, the 30-year-old is something of a late bloomer, spending three seasons in the AHL before starting for the Sabres during the forgettable Phil Housley and unfortunate Ralph Krueger eras. Once he moved to the Bruins, Ullmark blossomed. He won the Vezina and shared the Jennings with Jeremy Swayman on a very strong defensive squad and finished his Bruins stint with a .924 Sv%. Linus Ullmark (35) makes a save in front of defenseman Matt Grzelcyk (48) and Senators captain Brady Tkachuk (7). [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjA3NDg2ODE1ODExMjgyMjA1/usatsi_23042268.jpg] Linus Ullmark (35) makes a save in front of defenseman Matt Grzelcyk (48) and Senators captain Brady Tkachuk (7). That's probably not going to happen with the Sens. It's not that the Sens were completely awful on defense — they were middle of the pack in both shots against per game and possession metrics — and they've got some serious talent on the blue line with Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun, though one of them may be on the move. But a lot of times they lacked structure, couldn't put forth a solid 60 minutes of play, often got caught running around in their own end and unable to get the puck out, and they don't have a strong defensive center or enough experience to keep them anchored. They spent more time in the defensive zone than the league average despite having some serious speed, ranking above the 80th percentile in speed bursts above 20 mph. (Having Drake Batherson and Mathieu Joseph helps). Goaltending was a huge issue. They ranked 29th on the PK and allowed the fifth-most goals per game (3.43), ranked second-last in 5v5 Sv% (.900) and last in PK Sv% (.826), per naturalstattrick.com. As per THN Ottawa's Steve Warne [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/ottawa-senators-acquire-linus-ullmark-swapping-goalies-with-the-boston-bruins], the Sens gave up a goal on the first or second shot of the game 22 (!) times. Does Ullmark help the Sens? Absolutely. Over the past three seasons, only two goalies have saved more goals above average at 5-on-5: Ilya Sorokin and Connor Hellebuyck. That's really good company. Ullmark wasn't as sharp this past season, ceding time and the No. 1 job to Swayman, but he still statistically rates as a very good goalie. However, I've seen enough of Ullmark, going back to the Sabres days, to be somewhat skeptical about his long-term consistency. It's worth noting that of Ullmark's total 50.99 GSAA over the past three seasons, 31.65 came in his Vezina-winning season, where he finished eight goals clear of second-place Sorokin and Alexandar Georgiev. I think Swayman's the better goalie, but even having an average goalie should put the Sens back in playoff contention. In turn, perhaps this gives Ullmark a chance to win 30-plus games. It almost never happens, literally, having accomplished it only once during his outlier (yes, I said outlier) Vezina-winning season. Ullmark's moving from a significantly better defensive team to a much weaker one and playing for Travis Green, who wasn't known for his defensive structure with both the Canucks and Devils. It will not be easy for Ullmark to replicate his numbers with the Bruins. Another thing about Ullmark — he's never really had a starter's workload. He's never started more than 49 games in a season and seems much more suited in a tandem than being a workhorse No. 1, even though he says he's ready. Forsberg, who will be the likely be the backup ahead of Mads Sogaard, is a threat to steal playing time. The Sens also have two other young goalies in the pipeline, Leevi Merilainen and Kevin Mandolese, both of whom have had a taste of the NHL. There's a logjam in the crease and the Sens have not made a long-term commitment to Ullmark just yet. Last season, Ullmark had a Yahoo ADP of 32.4 and he was the seventh goalie off the board, ahead of Swayman, Juuse Saros and Cup champion Sergei Bobrovsky. He's going get drafted much, much lower in the upcoming season if only because the Sens are going to be discounted, and rightfully so until we see them turn all their talented individual pieces into one cohesive unit. The Sens may want to lean on Ullmark for 50-plus games, but that's a huge workload and I'm not sure he can do it playing every night as opposed to every other night. Ullmark would be hard-pressed to be a top-15 fantasy goalie given his present situation. There's still too much uncertainty surrounding the Sens, and Ullmark's never been a clear-cut No. 1 option despite his success with the Bruins. This makes rostering Ullmark a potential risk. More starts but on a lesser team... maybe it's a wash? Does quantity make up for the likely decline in quality? That's really the question here. Sens fans are excited because Ullmark could be the starting goalie they've been long been waiting for, but from a fantasy standpoint, he's not worth reaching in most drafts until the middle or late rounds. There's enough reason to think Ullmark can be successful, but not as successful as he was with the Bruins, and there's always a chance he falls well short of expectations given the inherent volatility of the position itself. Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss! [https://thehockeynews.rtb.io/nhl-fantasy/posts]
