LOS ANGELES, CA — Whether you look at each pipeline asset or a current roster piece, there isn't a whole lot for the Los Angeles Kings to work with. There's an ongoing predicament with this franchise: where it's headed and what it has accomplished. Its current state is one of decay and ambivalence on whether a maligned focus and direction of schema and construction can break through when it matters most.
I don't put stock into the notion of 'being one move away', particularly with this franchise. If one spent time around the franchise long enough, there's still a belief from their front office that the team is truly one move, perhaps two, away from being a legitimate contender despite one of the league's worst offenses and top three worst powerplays, inconsistent penalty kills, and marginal five-on-five output. This is a poor team at home, a strength at the top of the pile last season. They've relied on an edgy, stingy defense that still ranks atop the league in defensive metrics, while their traditional possession metrics have taken hits due to too much play in their own end. Supported by elite goaltending when healthy, there's a formula there to compete for a playoff spot in a turbulent Pacific Division.
To look at any upgrades the team desperately needs, despite a surprising showing against the Anaheim Ducks, we first need to understand the landscape through a programmatic lens and filter down to options that are reliable and cohesive enough to make an NHL trade that actually makes sense. From the Kings' perspective, it has to land at the goaltending pipeline.
While the prospect pipeline was among the best in the league during Rob Blake's tenure, it faded into obscurity. One area making a surprise recovery and standing out as one of the league's best is the goaltending pipeline. An old strength the Kings relied upon to make trades and find stability in times of poor health during the Lombardi era, the strength has been reinvigorated toward weaponization.
The Kings have an on-and-off, health-wise, promising Swede in Erik Portillo, a rising star in Hampton Slukynsky, and WJC Team Canada netminder Carter George. There's high-end starter upside in the last two, with the health of Portillo questionable over the previous season and a half. So, for an opposing General Manager and front office, this is a starting point outside the tire-kicking you would have to do as part of the quid pro quo with Quinton Byfield, Brandt Clarke, and even their sole forward blue-chip prospect in Liam Greentree.
Byfield and Clarke should be considered untouchable, despite the turning of events that is being displayed in the city of angels. Byfield is on pace to see reduced production this season despite an elevated role, and his confidence appears to be reeling after a multi-point performance against the Ducks (scored his first goal in the last 17 games). Clarke, the team's best offensive defenseman by a country mile, has been utilized as the five/six defenseman all season despite leading in EVs points, and expected goals for/analytics. He's closer to being in that 'movable' discussion than Byfield, almost purely out of the concept that he should be their 1A TOI-wise, potentially needing the opportunity elsewhere.
Consider also the fact that the pipeline was also cleared for Clarke, so moving him would put a pretty bow on what would be the ugliest prospect development and implementation across the league. The number of right-handed defenseman cleared from the pipeline/prospect pool/lineup has been staggering: Brock Faber, Sean Durzi, Helge Grans, Sean Walker, Matt Roy, and recently, Jordan Spence. Do all those players combined, with their AAV, represent the value of a five/six defenseman playing on one of the worst offensive teams in hockey?
Greentree is in a situation where you can deplete the forward pool when he stands above the rest. Take out Greentree from their pipeline, and that forward pool thins down past any shred of repute. He figures to be a solid middle-six pivot with upside, but the drop off after Greentree is significant.
Byfield is still a non-starter for the Kings, unless they can get a better ready-now center with upside and another player in the package. I don't see that for LA. They have a 1C/2C problem, and while Alex Turcotte is showing progression as a 3C in the wake of the Phillip Danault trade, there is a broken succession plan for centering their top six right now after Anze Kopitar retires.
That brings us back to the starting point. The most viable trade for LA is one that includes a goaltending prospect if they want a quality player at or before the deadline. Given that Byfield, Clarke, and Greentree should be off-limits, either George or Slukynsky could very much be in play due to their overall appeal. Packaged with this upcoming first-round pick, plus the additional second-round pick the Kings acquired in the Danault deal, the Kings can now start to formulate a more enticing package despite the barrage of damage their overall pipeline has taken over the last few seasons.
There will be a lot of cap space for the Kings at the deadline. If they continue with their current roster, I don't see them squeaking into the playoffs, unless they're a slip-in, last-minute wildcard that gets manhandled by the Central Division giants in the first round. Ken Holland is almost guaranteed to make a move.
A potential roster player could sweeten the deal, but it would also take away from the current roster, despite its maligned offensive engine. The addition by addition, but also with the element of subtraction, would have to land a premier player, with another player in the organization also simultaneously coming in to fill a void (think Jeff Carter trade for Jack Johnson, with Slava Voynov knocking at the NHL door, with reinforcements coming up in the form of Dwight King and Jordan Nolan).
That's not saying the same type of hockey trade reoccurs, but rather the schematic of one, or rather, the purpose, gets accomplished. The Kings don't have reinforcements knocking at the door, so to speak, but rather seem flat-footed while openly discussing contender status. Which means a trade that focuses on one of their two mostly healthy goaltending prospects, plus picks, puts them in a decent bargaining position if they find another franchise that needs reassurance or a brighter future in net.
A team trades from a position of strength, as the adage goes. The current Kings' strength, asset-wise, is pretty straightforward. They will likely play to their only area of strength, while hoping their youth core on the current roster takes massive leaps after a mostly disappointing first half.