Friday Kings Analytics: Five Games

EL SEGUNDO, CA — It's Friday, and that means it's time to take a deeper look at three stats for these Los Angeles Kings, and oh boy, it is almost as fun to dig into stats when a team is performing poorly as it is when it is performing well.

First Stat: 35.57 Minutes

That's the number of minutes the Kings have played on the penalty kill this season, thus far (five games). That's the second most in the league. Those minutes remain high despite taking under four penalties in a match for the first time this season in their most recent bout (taking two penalties in their game against Pittsburgh), though getting scored on in the very first opportunity is just another reason to sigh in this early-season stretch for the Kings.

Second most minutes, second most goals allowed, and second most shots seen. However, their scoring chances against are 20th with 23 total. Almost half of those are high danger at 12 overall, which would be the 10th highest in the league. Per NaturalStatTrick, only one of those eight goals scored against the Kings was considered high danger.

Naturally, that brings my attention to goaltending based on the second half of the stats above.

Darcy Kuemper was solid on the kill last season, maybe not as good as the LA version of Cam Talbot, but still very good. This year, however, he has seen the third most shots against (24) and has the fourth lowest save percentage in the league amongst qualifying early season tenders this season in unblocked shot save percentage (.875%). For reference, Kuemper was the third highest amongst goaltenders with at least 20 games played in that same category last season (.950%). Total Save% for shots on goal, Kuemper ranks seventh lowest this season (min three games played) at .826%. He was third overall last season, at an elite penalty killing clip of .906.

It certainly doesn't help with some early-season cratering from a macro-team, holistic level approach. It also doesn't help the team's PK numbers that Anton Forsberg's most recent performance, despite only two kill opportunities, lets in a stoppable Evgeni Malkin shot.

All is not completely woe. Oddly enough, you know who has shone throughout the kill? Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci.

Dumoulin has the lowest On-Ice Expected goals against per 60 in the league (buoyed by a ton of 4-on-5 icetime) at 1.79; the next closest is Connor Dewar at 2.36. He's seventh in On-Ice shot attempts against per 60 at 68.09 (fourth amongst defenseman). Dumoulin and Ceci are amongst the nine defensemen in the league with a net zero in regards to On-Ice high-danger shot attempts against per 60. Both Dumoulin and Ceci have top-five On-Ice goal differential ratings at -.3 and -.5, ranking first and fourth amongst defenseman, respectively.

The team has allowed the third-most power-play goals, while having two early-on stalwart penalty-killing defensemen and some particularly unstable penalty-killing goaltending. It's an early-season sinew, but averaging 4.8 penalties a game should come way down. That's an early-season point of inflation, and it's causing some concern, but when considering their PK goal differential is tied with a powerhouse like Dallas, it's easy to say, "Hey, it's just five games in." 

Second Stat: 1.54 and .82

Amongst defenseman who have played 50 or more minutes to start this new and young season, those numbers are the highest points per 60 minutes at even strength on the backend for the Kings. Can you guess who they are?

Well, if you said Brandt Clarke—'ding-ding-ding'. That was almost a gimme. He leads the Kings in that category, 34th amongst league defensemen (min 50 minutes played). This ranking could be somewhat concerning, given the level of talent and the direction he's heading. Still, the concern is slightly diluted by the fact that most players ahead of him are currently genuine first-pair players.

By the way, have I already mentioned it's only five games in?

Anyways–At 74th best and second best on the Kings? Cody Ceci. 

Before I start waving my cap for Ceci, he's sitting above players like Rasmus Dahlin and Josh Morrissey (that might not hold up). Even more, while it's a good sign for him, it also means the rest of the Kings' defensive core is much slower to get to the offensive side of the game than expected. Mikey Anderson is next on the list at 86th (.77), and then Drew Doughty is 97th (.65). The rest of the Kings' defensive core has a zero net rating in that category via Moneypuck (getting some points will help that).

Let's do some quick math here for those interested in Clarke and Doughty. Doughty at .65 per 60, at an 82-game pace? Averaging 24 minutes a night (he's currently averaging 23:32)? That's a 21.32 point pace at even strength for Doughty right now. His last full season of NHL action was in 2023-24, and he had a .95 rate and 25 even-strength points (he was averaging almost two more full minutes a night in 2023-24: 25:48).

For Clarke and his 1.54 pace? That's a 50.5 point pace over 82 games.

Last season, his pace was 1.2, almost matching Doughty's full 2023-24 season in points (25), with 22. 50.5 points a season at even strength is undoubtedly high, as it would be a full seven points ahead of Quinn Hughes for best in the league in that category last season.

Apologies, that math is calculated to 'if' he was playing 24 minutes a night. 

Slotted at 18 minutes a night (he's averaging 17:50), and that number falls to 37.9. Key takeaway here, even if it is, guess what—just five games—the kid is going to be a star when he gets first pairing minutes.

Third Stat: 2.4

Sitting right behind Leon Draisaitl in Expected Goals at 2.4 is Quinton Byfield. All situations have him right in the thick of the elite pack of point-producing forwards at the NHL level, at 25th best very early on. At even strength, he's tied at 1.5 in Expected Goals with Connor McDavid, Jason Robertson, and Kirill Marchenko. Now there's no need to fly off the handle here with excitement. Still, he's been very good, and in a season when the organization has needed Byfield to be removed from, 'he's a just good player' and a step in the superstar conversation; he's laying the groundwork in the infancy of this season. 

He leads the Kings' forward group at even strength in points (3) and takeaways (4). He's second amongst the team's forwards in average ice time (19:01), in Expected Goals per 60 (1.31), assists per 60 (1.8), points per 60 (2.7), shot attempts, and shots on goal per 60 (9.89 and 17.08, respectively).

Only fair since Clarke got the treatment, what are Byfield's 2.7 points per 60 at an 82-game pace at 19 minutes played a game? That's a 70.11 apoint pace at even strength.

Again, just like Clarke and Hughes, that even strength mark would be four points ahead of last season's league leader in David Pastrnak (66). It's highly unlikely Byfield strikes that close to that, but it's relatively plausible that he can strike within the 45-50 point range at even strength. He scored 38 points at even strength last season with a 2.23 points per 60. If he can maintain or even flirt with 2.7, it's going to be a considerable jump from last season.